Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Massachusetts Mid-Terms – Democrats Hold Commonwealth – GOP First Timers Show Impressive Margins - Analysis


The Nation's Results: Historic Gains in House - CNN Map

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts remained somewhat reliably Democrat in the 2010 mid-terms, with the majority of State and Federal offices held by incumbents. However, for the first time in decades, the Democrats in the Commonwealth were forced to defend their districts, with returns on Congressional races showing much narrower margins of victory than projected by pundits. The results shown on the Boston Globe’s website here with the majority of precincts reporting Congressional races shows the gap between the political ideology of the Commonwealths populace has narrowed significantly over the elections held in 2008. In the MA2 District, Richard Neal (with 91% reporting) won the district by 18% over, first-time GOP candidate Tom Wesley who garnered 40% of the vote. In the MA4, Barney Frank won by only 11% over Republican Sean Bielat and the 10th District Open Seat went to the Democrat Bill Keating by 5% over Republican Jeff Perry. The balance of the 9 Congressional Seats show similar results with few exceptions, with much narrower margins than previous House elections.


Massachusetts Resuts Show MA GOP Voter Growth - Map Boston Globe

What is most remarkable is that in the MA2, the race was played out with grassroots ground games only and little spent on adverting by the GOP challenger, Wesley. The MA2 did not get the national attention that races in the 4th and 10th districts enjoyed, with GOP challengers filling impressive war chests from citizens nationwide. Few PACS weighed in with the exception of Mitt Romney’s as far as Bay State GOP races were concerned. Therefore, with a significant gap in funds, Tom Wesley forced Richard Neal to fight for his Congressional Seat, and took not 25% of the vote, but 40%. One has to understand that what Wesley accomplished was twofold: one, he made gains in uncharted waters against a 22 year entrenched Democrat who was vying for the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee. Neal was forced to spend his war chest, not on Democrat races in districts far from the Bay State, where House Democrats nationwide faced defeat. The same can be said of those who faced similar financing and lack of national press; Jon Golnik in the 5th District, Bill Hudak in the 6th, Marty Lamb in the 3rd and Bill Gun in the 1st – running ground games and scratching for the national spotlight when the pundits and Conservative activities nationwide barely glanced at those races. The National GOP owes all of these players a debt of gratitude, and now, with the results in, 2012 might get a bit more uncomfortable for those districts.

The Governor’s office was held by Deval Patrick with a little help from Democrat turned independent Tim Cahill, who took a surprising 8% of the 97% currently reporting in , leaving Republican Baker short by exactly 8 points necessary to best Patrick. One can view the results are hardly a mandate for Patrick, who garnered 49% of the vote.

Although a victory is still a victory, it is not without a little pride in the citizens of the State who stood up and voted with the GOP in a strong showing, specifically as Progressive Democrat Community Organizations were out in force in the final days before the election, focusing on low income and “immigrant” populations across the State to get out and vote. In Western Massachusetts, the Alliance to Develop Power whose focus appears to be immigration reform, and Neighbor To Neighbor, whose focus appears to be “Voter Empowerment”, got out the vote with slogans such as "Today is the Day, Defend What’s Yours."

Although the Progressives Democrats who helped Richard Neal, Barney Frank, Deval Patrick and a significant number of Commonwealth House and Senate groups maintain their seats, again, it was a scramble in the the finals days to counter the startling increase in voters turning to the GOP.

The results overall results were, however, historic, as nationwide the GOP took the house in an “historical sweep” (CNN) while coming in within 4 Seats of taking the Senate.

That trend was evident in Massachusetts, and as the process begins for 2012, one can guarantee that although down today, the MA GOP cannot be counted out. In a following statement released by MA GOP chair, Jennifer Nassour, speaks to the fact that, gains were made, but it is not an overnight process:

“Tonight the Massachusetts Republican Party made significant gains in the Legislature. Changing the color of Massachusetts to purple won't happen overnight. The important fact is that entrenched incumbents, who often fly beneath the radar, had to stand up to public scrutiny this election cycle. I’m proud of our GOP candidates who worked hard and focused on important issues like creating jobs, lowering taxes, and reducing government spending.”

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Tina, I am not as sanguine as you are about the drubbing we took on election day 2010. You must remember, we had a terrfic once-in-a-lifetime tailwind blowing in from the anger and frustration by the voters over the destruction being wrought by the Democrats in Washington. I don't know if we will ever have such an opportunity again (let's hope not, because if we do, it means the country is in serious trouble), and yet we still lost in Massachusetts. As conservatives, we are going to have to get much smarter and much more skilled in order to redirect the political conversation in Massachusetts. There is a great amount of long term building that has to go on for us to be able to have an impact in the politics in this state in the future.

Tina Hemond said...

Dear Jay,

Point taken, however, I’m an optimist for several reasons; the fact that the “drubbing” we took, which was aided by a good deal of “community organizing” in the final weeks of the campaign, was so close (granted: no cigar) in comparison with all of the years I have been a Massachusetts resident, having had no choices, then faced with so many, it was truly impressive. I disagree with the assessment that the tail wind you speak of will have abated – on the contrary – to get so close, with no money and with no attention (as was the case in this district as well as the 4th, 5th and 10th (the 4th and 10th actually having cash on hand), has heartened so many people I have spoken with today. What we have learned is that we need to work harder, (not that we did not work out hearts out) but learn from what we experienced in this election, and build on that, including become community organizers. Prior to Scott Brown, there was a vast wasteland, with people just waking up to the possibility – his win was not an anomaly, it was just a beginning. Look at the resources that had to go into these Massachusetts races – the Democrats and Progressives fought for Massachusetts, something they would not have done 2 years ago. The problem is that they have learned nothing – look at the editorials – they are thrilled with themselves for holding a state that they should not have had to fight for (according to the very same pundits), and the chance of them changing? Zilch. The taxes will increase, the voting patterns will remain the same, those that were sent to Beacon Hill and Washington, will stay there, coming back to their districts when convenient. In the meantime, we take those lessons and build. It is something new for conservatives and those who view the Constitution as a guideline, not a document open to interpretation, to begin to look at what can be done and rally. With each “drubbing”, one grows.


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