Romney and Obama, writing on the wall for 2012
Rasmussen now has Obama’s approval rating at 44%, with disapproval at 55% of the population, while Gallop shows the President’s approval rating at 47%with 46% disapproval.
Although pundits have noted that the health care reform issue is built along partisan divides, it is apparent that given the aforementioned statistics, the numbers of identified Republicans and Democrat are insufficient to complete a poll; therefore, the administration has lost the independents, along with moderate Democrats.
The other problem the administration faces is the fact that those who would have followed blindly in the past are now paying attention to every facet of the news (media) regarding health care reform. From boomers to current retirees, the local news, Network nightly news, no longer is sufficient in order to keep them informed. The scope of attention paid to this particular bill by the “masses” (Socialist term for those thought to be too simple not to understand what’s going on), has increased to the point where should the President and like-minded Congress continue to ram legislation through that the majority of people are not keen on, then 2010 will be an historical election. The norm for mid-terms is that party in power (so to speak), will lose a number of House and Senate seats; it is the ebb and flow of the Congress that has been in force since the two major political parties solidified their hold on the American public.
Should this shenanigans (there is no other word for what is going on now), continue, then 2010 will be a bloodbath for the Democrats, no matter what procedural “tricks” of rule bending the Democrats try to pull in order to get the bill passed without actually voting on it in the House. That tactic is in place two reasons, one: they may or may not have the number of votes necessary to bring it to the floor in order to pass, and two: this will allow those members who would have voted for the Senate version of the bill (sight unseen mind you), to say “I didn’t actually vote for it”. That will not fly with the public. What will occur and is now occurring is a total collapse of the Democrat brand, whereby, the local dogcatcher would be better off changing political parties in order to retain his position.
American’s have the ability to paint one political party with the same brush – one need only look back at the Bush Administration to understand that the media driven frenzy against Bush and all “Republican’s” in general resulted in the losses in 2006 and 2008; other forces aiding in degrading the brand included the ever-present Progressive leadership at the nations universities, the power mad, no longer relevant unions, and a host of groups such as “Emily’s list” (pro-democrat/pro-abortion), drove public perception of the administration and anyone associated with the brand down to the point where it was a “crap shoot” (shades of Barney Frank) for any incumbent Republican electability during those two election cycles.
The Democrats saw both election cycles through rose colored glasses, however, believing that by merely attaining control, they were given a mandate to do what-ever they felt they could get away with. The old “middle class tax burden” was played to the hilt by Obama and any other Democrat campaigning, until the people (masses) bought it. Now, as in any other product that is deficient, the buyer’s remorse has set it, and in spades. The independent is not the only identified voter that has begun to jump ship. Moderate Democrats have been changing parties, from unaffiliated or Republican, on the local city levels, in of all places, Massachusetts; desperately trying to distance themselves from the “brand”.
The problem with this, as with any brand gone bad, is that returning buyer loyalty is a long tough road. The severity of the distaste for the party vis a vis Obama and key members of Congress, has reached a point where it may not be possible for a Democrat to win a seat, or retain a seat, within the next four to eight years. The problem arises when any party gains strength based on a bad brand, thereby having total control of the nation. One can be assured however, should the Republicans return to power (and that is a given as of this moment), then it will take a long time to unseat them, regardless of the media, and regardless of other sources – including unions, to sway or change voters’ minds. Once they have that power, it is hoped they will use it judiciously – first and foremost by immediately repealing the legislation on Health Care Reform, or more to the point, opting for reform that will truly make a difference (tore reform, allowing carriers to sell across state lines – and staying out of state business. A return to fiscal conservatism is what is needed, along with an appreciation for our nation, one which allows us to be “proud of our country”, somewhere along the line, a mandate should be passed regarding curriculum taught in all public schools to include civics from an early age.
In Massachusetts and states across the nation, individuals are looking at their government closely for the first time, and whoever holds the reigns will be reminded from now to eternity that those that attain as seat by election, did so by the people and for the people.
To those Democrats in Congress and the Senate, no matter how “blue” a state may appear, the simple fact is that retirement is the only option, if and only if, they do not begin to distance themselves and make it plane to the people they represent that they are either against or for unpopular policies such as the current brand of health care reform. These statements need to be made now and they need to be made public across their districts, that may save a seat, although one can hazard to guess it may also be too little too late.
To get a clear picture of how badly the brand is degrading, visit the election polls at Real Clear Politics. This particular Internet service combines all polls taken to produce an average. What makes this site the most unbiased is that it includes polls from organizations that are clearly partisan (both from a Conservative and Liberal standpoint). The designation of party in any particular poll is by color, the same red and blue (and grey for independents), that has become the norm identifier. Understand that these polls are based on internal party (primary) races as well; therefore, one is seeing some blue designations. However, most of the data is red.
Prediction: 2010 – both the House and the Senate are now in play.
Prediction: 2012- Obama will be challenged by a member of his own party, possibly Hillary Clinton, and may not make it out of the primary. However, regardless of who runs, the nod will go to a Republican. As of now, the front-runner appears to be Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts. Additional House and Senate Seats will so go to the Republicans.
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