Wednesday, September 02, 2009

As New Jersey Goes – So Goes the Nation – Gubernatorial Race: Christi Maintains Poll Leads Despite Best Efforts of Media and DNC - Analysis


John Corzine with Barack Obama, Corzine Trailing Despite Bombs Thrown at Republican Opponent

A report fromPolitico this morning, suggests that despite the best efforts of embattled New Jersey Governor, Democrat Jon Corzine and the general media, Republican challenger, Chris Christie continues to maintain a sizable lead in the polls. The premise of the article, “Christie Holds Lead Despite Bad News”, is that Corzine remains behind, even though several allegedly damaging revelations about Christie have come to light. These include: failing to disclose a loan made in 2007 to a colleague (while employed at the U.S. Attorney’s office in NJ, racking up several parking tickets, and the kicker: talking to Karl Rove about the possibility of running for Governor while still a U.S. attorney. Based on these “crimes and misdemeanors”, Christie is a saint compared to the bevy of issues facing high profile incumbent Democrats, that, although underreported, have made national news. From Chris Dodd’s Mortgage Issues, which, ethics complaints brought in the Senate, have apparently disappeared due to his peers judgment and dismissal, to the former Louisiana Democrat, Congressman William Jefferson of cash in the freezer fame, to a host of characters, most recently, Obama nominees for cabinet positions who had issues of tax returns.

Parking Tickets? Is that all you’ve got?

As the media has excused almost every indiscretion by anyone remotely connected to a particular party of the years; attempting to point a finger for a similar or lesser issue, is not going to fly with John Q. Public – they have become: immune. Additionally, there may be other “bombs” that worked in the past that will no longer hold water with the all-important Independent Voters, chief amongst them in the charge: “Right Wing Republican”. This has developed most recently due to those “Health Care Town Hall Informational Sessions” where average citizens, many of whom are independents, Libertarians, and even Democrats, have been characterized by the administration, high profile members of Congress and the media as “mobs, Republican’s and paid for by Conservative Groups”. Apparently, those who were none of the above began to see the light in respect to the media’s inability to separate itself from news versus personal ideology of the various editors, producers, journalist and anchors.

Therefore, as all politicians, regardless of party, and apparently indiscretions, are now on a level playing field, what on earth will they campaign on? Simple Answer: The issues that are currently favored by the majority of the public, some of which are not in concert with the current Party in Power. Stimulus spending and Government run entities and control come to mind, in a word, the economy and sticking to the U.S. Constitution are leading factors among, amazingly, regular citizens who vote, and will, therefore, dictate how they vote. The politician, regardless of party, (but face it, most often a Conservative Republican or Libertarian), will do well in the 2009 and 2010 gubernatorial, U.S. House or Representative and Senate races.

The Polls: Looking at the data from Real Clear Politics, one finds that out of all 2009 matchups, Republicans are currently leading across the board. In those 2010 matchups being polled, Republican’s lead in early polling, with exceptions being polls conducted by the Daily Kos (no surprise there), and the states of Ohio and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania (current match-ups, including primaries) currently favoring the incumbent or Democrat running. That said, even Liberal Massachusetts, with incumbent Deval Patrick, (advisor and mentor David Axelrod, who is currently the advisor to Barack Obama), the Republican Candidate, Christie Mihos, is leading Patrick in the polls.

Therefore, the age of dismissing indiscretions for one, while playing up the indiscretions of the other, may be at an end – It may now be incumbent upon politicians, regardless of party affiliation and the media, to actually let the voting public know where they actually stand and not make campaign promises, based upon what may be popular, while being either inept or unable to make those promises happen fast enough for the “American Idol” voting block. It’s one thing to be a Rock Star, or run on the coat tails of a Rock Star, but one must realize that in America, Fame is fleeting, and once the bloom if off the proverbial rose, substance is what the voters will demand. If it cannot be delivered, they will go elsewhere, no matter how hard the media pushes, or the ads attack, the public now wants to know where a particular politician stands on issues, and should that politicians not fulfill his or her promised ideology, they will, undoubtedly, be out of a job.

2 comments:

Chuck said...

If there were a level playing field, such as the media reporting fairly, it would be hard to get a Democrat elected

Tina Hemond said...

Hi Chuck, I think that may be the case sometimes, however, that said, I think it is the fact that liberals (not all Democrats)"screamed" the loudest - (that and the whole "socialist own the educational system - ergo will change the government" thing that so many college professors believe and teach - with editors and producers leaning in the same direction) - then the populace (general) decides enough is enough (spending, taxes, basic insanity) and elects a conservative (Republican), the fact that now, there are competitive media outlets, makes a huge difference - conservative leaning American's are now, for the first time in my memory, "screaming" - they are that outraged - which, I view as a natural progression. With the current administration and party, there are some serious comparisons to be made, historically, to the Carter administration - and we know what happened there - (stimulus, auto company bailouts, inflation (run-away), and a seriously flawed foreign policy, oh taxes, unemployment) the economy, more than anything else, was their undoing - and, Chuck, if we live long enough, we will see this "cycle" again - Republican's (or a conservative) get elected, the economy improves, people become complacent, another election appears and someone with zero experience will run that looks good and talks a great "game" - has left leaning tendencies, and are able to communicate more effectively (aided by the media) and the public’s "American Idol" mentality - will get elected. History - somehow, we never learn to look back (and the fact that it is not exactly a "popular" subject in any school setting - or even taught anymore in most cases) - therefore, mistakes happen, we suffer the consequences, and go through the whole cycle again. I'd hazard to guess that we'll see a repeat (in some form) of the years immediately following Carter's administration - and whoever takes the mantel this time, will have a horrific job cut out for them - no matter who it is, if they don't have the ability to govern from the middle and find a balance between social issues and the economy (see Mike Huckabee's tenure as Govenor of Arkansas - and imagine that nationwide), then we'll be looking at another round of the same. I might add that this backlash is not a rejection of the Democrat's, rather a rejection of policies that are not even in the realm of the Constitution, which is crossing party lines. Talk to many Democrats about what is happening in our country? They general rank and file are not thrilled.


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