GOP Poll Update: Gingrich/Romney Lead in NH (Depending upon the Pollster), Gingrich Leads in CNN National Poll - CNN Debate Tonight 11/22/11

Cain, Gingrich and Romney - the current top tier (missing from photo is Ron Paul) - photo: business insider

A tale of three polls: New Hampshire, the first in the nation primary, was polled a week apart by two separate entities, one, the New Hampshire Journal, in conjunction with Magellan Strategies, polled a total of 746 individuals, with 61% of those polled as Conservative, 34.4% as moderate, 3.6% as liberal and holding no 1.9% - the marginals and crosstabs can be found linked here at nhjournal.com. In this poll taken the 18th of November, 60% of the participants were Republicans, 40% Independents, which is not necessarily representative of total voter makeup (which is problematic for most polls. According to the Secretary of States’ website, after purging the voter rolls, the makeup of New Hampshire is 224,809 Democrats, 232,017 Republicans and 309,153 Undeclared. In this particular poll, Gingrich and Romney are at a statistical dead heat, with Romney taking 212, to Gingrich’s 202 “votes".

Looking to Suffolk Universities poll released on November 20th, there are slight differences in the marginals: out of 400 respondents, 58% indentify Republican with 41% as unenrolled, 47% Conservative, 45% moderate, 7% liberal and 2% undecided - Romney takes 41% of the votes in this scenario, with Gingrich at 14%. Interestingly, question 17 asks which Republican would best President Obama in the Debates – Romney and Gingrich both receive 34% of the vote.
With a heavier weight on moderates and more liberals in the poll, and a smaller sample, Romney has the advantage in Suffolk’s Poll, while Magellan’s larger sample, fewer moderates’ liberals, gives the nod to both Romney and Gingrich. As neither is representative of the actual makeup of the electorate, it is difficult to put a great deal of stock in either poll, New Hampshire Undeclared also identify more with the Tea Party. (Based on marginals from both polls having similar results).

CNN’s new poll on a national scale is a bit puzzling: The Poll marginals here at turner.com/cnn are based on a population that is centered in the South (zero respondents from the Northeast, West or Midwest, and neither from Urban or Rural Communities. Therefore, the poll is made up of Southern voters in suburban areas. Gingrich tops this poll with 24%, to Romney’s 20%, which is within the margin of error, however, on the question of Leadership, Gingrich polls at 29%, on the question of most likable candidate, Romney gets that nod, at 29%, on best chance of beating Obama, Romney again, at 40%, and Gingrich at 21%, however, the same sample used in monthly polling showed Gingrich at 5% - in October. Gingrich also takes the “Agree with most” question, placed under Romney and Cain in the “Get Economy Moving Again category, (again with a remarkable gain from the last months poll). The biggest gains come in the Commander in Chief question, with 39% believing Newt Gingrich most qualified, 43% believe Gingrich most capable to deal with complex issues, 30% that Gingrich would best represent the United States. With the poll make-up almost screaming "Country Club Republican (with Tea Party undertones)", this gives Gingrich a larger share of the block where Romney is expected to best.

Question #27 was omitted from the poll – which makes one curious as to what that may have been? This data did not include the demographic cross tabs. That said this offers up some interesting conjecture as to the nature of the Republican Primary and who, just six to eight weeks out, may win all important New Hampshire in the primary states.
Should Gingrich win Iowa, go on to win in New Hampshire, and then take either South Carolina or Florida prior to Super Tuesday, the momentum would be set in stone. Any candidate taking two out of three of the first states mentioned, is set to go into Super Tuesday with some sort of mandate. Romney can be expected to take certain Western States as well as Michigan, however, should he lose New Hampshire, the early writing will be on the wall.

With a field, however, that has seen ups and downs, up until this point, with one candidate after another ascending and descending from the top perch, Romney has remained steady in the 20’s, with no movement. This can be looked at in one of two ways. Romney either has a very solid base and will pick up momentum as soon as he hits the primary season, or Romney will stay at 20%, and be announcing his decision to withdraw sometime after Super Tuesdays results are in. With the south heavily weighted in that contest, it would be a nothing short of a miracle for Romney to take the South. Of course, nothing in this election season is out of the questions.

Wolf Blitzer will be moderating tonight’s debate on CNN, the network and moderator that has become the most distinguished, least ridiculous when it comes to debate forums, it is hoped that Blitzer will stick to the format and role he played in the CNN Tea Party Debate earlier this year.

What the above tells us about polling, a lot depends on the sample, the pollster and next week, all may change, however, coming out of the first three primary states, a definitive front runner may emerge. According to the aforementioned polls, Gingrich takes two out of three (New Hampshire and the South - most likely polled in Georgia - a Super Tuesday state).

Just a note: Real Clear Politics shows Gingrich leading in all national polls (with their method of averaging polls) with Herman Cain running away with South Carolina in the last state poll.

Spain Soundly Rejects Socialism – Wake Up Call for the U.S.

The murder of religious under Franco, see article with image at thesplendorofthechurch.blogspot

With the election of conservative, Mariano Rajoy, and the People’s Party in a 16 point route of the Socialist Party, one finds the Spanish resistance to totalitarian states, once again, coming to the forefront.

As a first generation American whose family resides in Spain, one understands that the oppression of a socialist state (the ideal and the reality are two very different situations), decimated the economy – as Spain, in trending, tends to lead the European nations – as well as continuing to hold sway as the “mother country” over nations of Spanish decent elsewhere in the world, the message sent on Sunday is one of rejection of dangerous ideologues for a more individual driven concept.

The Spaniards have had their share of dictators; form the monarchy in the earliest of times, influenced as it was by the Catholic Church (as was all of Europe), to the fight against the invasion of the Mulsim Moors, who had taken a great percentage of Spain from 792 to 1492 in an attempt to convert Christians to Islam while gaining more territory, to the trials and tribulations most apparent in the second World War, when, not unlike the French Revolution, all religious were either murdered or fled, while the Fascists held sway. Spain was considered the testing ground for weapons to be used by the German’s. The Spaniards saw a return to a “Democracy” in 1977, with one of the most liberal Socialist Constitutions ever written in Europe. That has apparently backfired.

It is hoped that Spain will lead the charge in freeing Europe from the chains of Socialism, by example, and that economy will be the driving factor in this change. The basis of the plan is deep cuts to programs, which, apparently was very popular with the voting public.
Those in the United States that fail to see this trend should do so at their own political peril.

2012 GOP Polls: Gingrich Tied National Gallup, Dead Heat With Romney in NH – Most Capable to Meet Obama in Debate forum

The GOP Field, (sans Romney), at the Iowa 2012 Thanksgiving Family Forum

A newly released National Poll by Gallup shows Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in a virtual “tie” – out of 1062 Republicans and Republican leaning independents, Romney Leads Gingrich by 1 point, however, out of the Registered Voters, Gingrich leads Romney by 1 point, with the next closest candidate Herman Cain at 16%, and Dr. Ron Paul at 10% - the uncommitted, or undecided’s are still fairly high in national polls, at 19%. This may be due to the difficultly one might have choosing one candidate over another in this talent heavy GOP group. With the exception of Mitt Romney who has failed to rise about the 20 percent mark in almost every national poll, the balances of the candidates have seen poll numbers fluid.

Reviewing 2008 polling, Romney faced a similar scenario, with a solid base of supporters going into the early voting and caucus states through Super Tuesday, where, at that point, it was evident McCain and Huckabee were the two top tiers, candidates. However, at this time in the race in 2008, McCain was still not considered a front-runner, although rising in the polls, it was marginal.

Therefore, with at the least 4 to 5 solid candidates and six weeks to go until Iowa votes, it remains to be see exactly who will rise – bets right now are off on the following: Perry, Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann and Romney in Iowa – The reason is the high number of uncommitted (or those having a difficult time making a choice in candidate, not as the pundits pontificate the field is weak, rather, the opposite, where there are several strong candidate from which to choose. A great deal will depend upon which candidate can rise above the balance in the key states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and carry a majority going forward through Super Tuesday in February.

Speaking of New Hampshire: Gingrich is now tied with Romney (Wall Street Journal), in what has been known as Romney’s “state”. Again, there are those heavy numbers of undecided, which may propel a candidate, otherwise “given up for dead” to the top. This is the case for any national polls, however, the New Hampshire poll is telling, as Romney has consistently lead in New Hampshire in double digits, this was prior to the insurgence of the more Conservative Tea Party movement in the state in 2010 and forward bringing the State of New Hampshire into the “Red” column, in both the legislature, Governors Seat and Federal offices. Romney is known as a more moderate candidate, appealing to beltway pundits, and the national GOP.

Gingrich, although having somewhat of a “past”, is in a unique position to take advantage of the current status. He played well to a large audience of evangelicals in the Thanksgiving forum on Saturday (link to video available on this blog), in Iowa, hosted by the powerful, Focus on the Family. In the instance of any infidelities on the part of Gingrich, going back decades, his evident faith and lifestyle, is resounding with evangelicals and those of other faiths, while to Democrats seeking an alternative to Barack Obama, it matters little, (see Herman Cain Sexual Abuse Allegations and Bill Clinton).

Additionally, the brouhaha some conservatives (most likely opposition candidates) are making about his firm consulting Freddie and Fannie is not universally accepted. The point being that his business (consulting) was hired by multiple firms, The fact that this is a public firm (and the questions remains why this is a public firm), has some campaigns complaining that Gingrich took the taxpayer’s dollars. However, when one looks at the balance of the field, Congressional Reps, former Senators and Governor, the only one on the panel who did not take “taxpayer's dollars” in one form or the other is Herman Cain.

The next debate is the 22nd, of November on CNN, and will, once again, determine the rise or fall or solidify the positions held by the candidates. With each opportunity to view the candidates in a debate and/or forum setting, those potential GOP voters (who were so intent on watching the last CBS debate, which was broadcast on CBS for one hour with the final hour shown on the CBSNews website) crashed the CBS News website – apparently CBS either was not prepared or believed there would be such a lack of interest that they did not believe that their audience would choose a GOP debate over a rerun. Go figure.

That said, out of the entire field, should Gingrich continue to perform in the debates, as he has in those held to date, one should see Gingrich’s stock rise. It is the fact that those traditional GOP voters, as well as leaning Independents, and yes, Democrats who are moderate, are looking for the individual who will be able to out-perform Obama in the debate arena – Gingrich is clearly capable in that regards.