Illinois - Primary Results for U.S. Senate Seat Currently Held by Obama replacement Burris, Analysis

The Illinois state 2010 primaries were held yesterday for several Congressional races, among them the race to fill the seat currently held by Democrat, Roland Burris. Burris was appointed to the seat by former Illinois Govenor, Democrat, Rod Blagojevichto replace Barack Obama, who was elected to the seat in 2004, and used that platform to began a successful bid for the Presidency in 2007.

One would think that the State of Illinois and the electorate would, therefore, trend heavily Democrat in the Primary, however, the results tell a different story. With 99%of the precincts reporting in, a total of out of five Democrat candidates, Barack Obama’s protégé, Alexi Giannoulias, bested his nearest competitor by 5 points, garnering 345,265 votes. The Republican primary, with 6 candidates vying for the slot, gave Mark Kirk, the current U.S. Congressional Represenative from North Chicago’s 10th Congressional District the nod, with a 37 point lead over his competitors. Kirk Received 416,853 votes in this primary. One must understand that more Democrats voted in the primary than Republican’s, overall, however, the margin of victory is telling.

Which may be why David Axelrod , political guru for Massachusetts Govenor Deval Patrick and Barack Obama is concerned about holding onto the seat, according to Politico.com. Axelrod’s concerns stem from the fact that he preferred another candidate to Giannoulis, the current Illinois State Treasurer, who worked with former Govenor Blagojevich, and fears the Republican, Kirk will be “formidable”.

Despite recent Democrat losses in key races in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts, one would think that the seat held by Axelrod’s protégé, would be firmly in the grapes of those Progressive Chicago Democrats. That said, one merely needs to review polls averages at Real Clear Politics in order to get a clear picture of which way the wind is blowing.

As it currently stands: the first poll to pit Giannoulias against Kirk, near the primary gave the Democrat an 8 point lead. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, queried 47% Democrat, 31% Republican and 23% Independent. Marignals here. As the State of Illinois publishes voter tally’s, without party designation, it is difficult, at this point, to know if those marginal’s accurately reflect that State's current voter registration. If so, then according to the primary results, Kirk has the definitive advantage.

Massachusetts Governor, Deval Patrick’s New Campaign Slogan - Yes! We Need More Taxes!

Deval Patrick, Campaigns on More Taxes! - Photo Boston Herald

Anyone living in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has noticed that they have been paying a lot more for simple things, including necessities, since the June round of taxes proposed by Governor Deval Patrick and passed by the Massachusetts Legislature went into effect. From cell phone bills, cable and satellite TV bills, to the increase in the bottom line of any given grocery receipt, a few dollars here, a few dollars there, adds up - especially in an economy where many find themselves choosing between eating and paying the rent. There are taxes and fees aplenty in the Commonwealth – all designed to boost a budget deficit that continues to outpace the income the Commonwealth derives from those individual working taxpayers and businesses that remain in the state.

In an election year, one finds U.S. representatives, and the Govenor, filling our mailboxes with brochures and flyer's touting constituent services (more on this subject at a later date). However, what one does not expect to see is the Incumbent Governor of the State known as “Taxachusetts” proposing yet another round of Taxes! From candy and soda (those are bad to you excuse) to Tobacco products that did not fall under a cigarette tax, such as cigars and pipe tobacco, (same excuse) to an increase in prescription drug fees for Medicaid recipients, a bottle tax on water and juice, and a surcharge on auto insurance – the later intended to drive those already struggling under the yoke of taxes, those underemployed, unemployed, and the elderly, to the very brink of destitution. Is he nuts?

Of course, the Governor, who is aware that his approval rating has tanked in recent months, (A recent Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll (Known to be generous to a certain political party – see Coakley plus 15 in the Brown/Coakley race while other pollsters had Brown up anywhere from 5 to 12 points) gave Patrick a 44% approval rating.) but believing in the power of the catchy and recycled slogan: “Yes, we can” - he decided that now is the time to raise taxes, again.

Why?

Enter the Trojan Horse.

The Governor faces a three way contest in November: Tim Cahill, Life-long Democrat conveniently turned Independent, and either the team of Republican Charlie Baker and Richard Tisie, or Republican/Independent Christy Mihos. With recent events in the Commonwealth clearly indicating that those who tax and spend – fail and retire - one has to ask why Deval Patrick continues on his path of potential taxing political suicide. Maybe he’s not as obtuse as one would believe.

The Cahill Factor: Tim Cahill, a life-long Democrat, began his career as a City Councilor, moving to the position of Country Treasurer and lastly elected State Treasurer in 2002. Cahill, who oversees the State Lottery, has had his share of notoriety. The Boston Globe report from December of 2009, talks about Cahill’s legal fees and use of “high profile, elite lawyers at the taxpayers’ expense. Apparently, when Deval Patrick began to tank in the polls, Cahill got “religion”. As of now Should Cahill receive more than 6%of the vote usually donated by the good citizens of the Commonwealth to the “Independent” running, he will insure that Deval Patrick is reelected. Sounds like a plan.

In reality, Tim Cahill may be sincere, but timing, as they say, is everything. With a disenchanted and depressed electorate, the candidates running for the governor’s office will be put under a proverbial microscope by the people of the Commonwealth – In real election terms, it is far too early to count anyone in or out, however, as the race shapes up during the summer, the handwriting should be on the walls (or in the polls).

Prediction: Deval Patrick takes the die hard progressives (26% of the 35% Democrats enrolled): Tim Cahill takes the balance of the Democrats who truly want a moderate, and 10% of the independents who believe he's truly found religion (that 19% and that is generous.) Looking more Baker/Tisie by the minute, take the balance. (12% Republican vote and the remaining 41% of the independent vote).

Harry Reid – Fundraising Ability versus the Reality of a Low Job Approval Rating – Money, in some instances, can’t buy a Senate Seat.

Harry Reid Stands to Lose Senate Seat - image LA Times Blog

Recent articles regarding Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid’s, ability to raise large sums of cash (and then spend it in a heartbeat), have appeared in several papers over the past week, of interest is one that appeared in the Washignton Post on January 29th. Although Reid had amassed approximately $2,000,000 for his campaign, he immediately spent it on advertising, perhaps in the hopes of improving his image with Nevadans. Reid’s currently polling between 8 and 10 points behind one of the republican challengers, Danny Tarkanian. Public Policy Polling, an allegedly left centered polling institute has Reid with an 8 point disadvantage at this point in the game. Public Policy Polling has correctly called races for Govenor (New Jersey and Virginia) and the U.S. Senate (Massachusetts).

Polling began back in August on this particular race, and the numbers have remained fairly consistent.

Comparing Harry Reid to Tom Daschle - Reids Numbers Much Lower - image broadcast blog

From an historical standpoint, the last majority leader of the Senate (and the first to lose his seat as an incumbent) was Tom Daschle, who’s poll numbers going into the end of the race, showed a smaller margin against his challenger Republican John Thune. Daschle apparrenlty had a higher job approval rating than Reid currently holds, however, his constant gaffes and his role of “attack dog” for the Kerry campaign, eventfully led to his demise. Reid, has had consistently low approval ratings: as late as January 10th, of this year Reids approval was at 33% and has remained at that approximate number since August.

Therefore, keeping in mind that historically, Daschle, the last Democrat Senate Majority Speaker who lost his seat had much better polling and approval rankings within his own state, more money, at this point is not going to save Harry Reid’s seat. All politics being local, it will be the Nevadans who determine Reid’s fate, and their main objective appears to be one of a fairly consistent desire to remove him from office. Another factor: Reid’s opposition is not yet determined (there are two Republican’s vying for the nomination who fare almost equally well against Reid in polls), once the opposition is set, the grassroots supporters as well as the GOP, will surely push that candidate’s war chest equal to or past Reid’s. Therefore, spending $2,000,000 here or $10,000,000 there will have the same effect as riding a stimulus backed pork-laden monorail to nowhere. Although too early to call any 2010 races, one can, based on the aforementioned data, be fairly certain that Reid will not be returning to the U.S. Senate.