Illinois - Primary Results for U.S. Senate Seat Currently Held by Obama replacement Burris, Analysis

The Illinois state 2010 primaries were held yesterday for several Congressional races, among them the race to fill the seat currently held by Democrat, Roland Burris. Burris was appointed to the seat by former Illinois Govenor, Democrat, Rod Blagojevichto replace Barack Obama, who was elected to the seat in 2004, and used that platform to began a successful bid for the Presidency in 2007.

One would think that the State of Illinois and the electorate would, therefore, trend heavily Democrat in the Primary, however, the results tell a different story. With 99%of the precincts reporting in, a total of out of five Democrat candidates, Barack Obama’s protégé, Alexi Giannoulias, bested his nearest competitor by 5 points, garnering 345,265 votes. The Republican primary, with 6 candidates vying for the slot, gave Mark Kirk, the current U.S. Congressional Represenative from North Chicago’s 10th Congressional District the nod, with a 37 point lead over his competitors. Kirk Received 416,853 votes in this primary. One must understand that more Democrats voted in the primary than Republican’s, overall, however, the margin of victory is telling.

Which may be why David Axelrod , political guru for Massachusetts Govenor Deval Patrick and Barack Obama is concerned about holding onto the seat, according to Politico.com. Axelrod’s concerns stem from the fact that he preferred another candidate to Giannoulis, the current Illinois State Treasurer, who worked with former Govenor Blagojevich, and fears the Republican, Kirk will be “formidable”.

Despite recent Democrat losses in key races in New Jersey, Virginia and Massachusetts, one would think that the seat held by Axelrod’s protégé, would be firmly in the grapes of those Progressive Chicago Democrats. That said, one merely needs to review polls averages at Real Clear Politics in order to get a clear picture of which way the wind is blowing.

As it currently stands: the first poll to pit Giannoulias against Kirk, near the primary gave the Democrat an 8 point lead. The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, queried 47% Democrat, 31% Republican and 23% Independent. Marignals here. As the State of Illinois publishes voter tally’s, without party designation, it is difficult, at this point, to know if those marginal’s accurately reflect that State's current voter registration. If so, then according to the primary results, Kirk has the definitive advantage.