North Korea – Bluff, Hype, Histrionics – Attempting to Judge the Irrational

The Border between North Korea and China - border crossings at the river closed today to tourists - not businessmen. Image from rfa.org

From the Washington Post article headlined - “North Korea’s warning to foreigners in South is second threat this week” – speaks to the second warning for foreigners to leave South Korea immediately – due to imminent war. Several news outlets have suggested that the North Korean’s would be launching missiles today, as they had moved said missiles to the eastern coast of Korea. The Japanese are on high alert and the Post article attempts to explain the rationale and potential reality of a threat by North Korean’s Young Un.

It’s not possible to explain or to attempt to determine what one earth is going to happen given the variety of the unknowns involved in a nation that is basically dark to the rest of the world.

The Threats:

From the Independent (Ireland) a slightly more alarming headline: “Get ready for thermonuclear war, North Korea tells world”:

North Korea urged foreigners to flee South Korea to avoid "thermonuclear war" as signs grew that it was preparing a possible missile test. Delivering another warning, North Korea vowed to wage a "merciless sacred retaliatory war" if provoked by its enemies. Kim Jong-un's regime will be "technically" ready to fire a medium-range missile as soon as today, the South Korean media reported. "According to intelligence analysis of North Korea's missile movements, it is believed to have completed preparations for a launch," an unnamed military official told Yonhap, the South Korean news agency. Last week, North Korea began moving a Musudan medium-range missile to its east coast, the location for previous test firings. Some experts believe that North Korea is planning a show of strength for April 15, the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, the founder of the nation, a date officially known as 'The Day of the Sun'. Japan announced that PAC-3 missile interceptors had been deployed to protect Tokyo. Two US destroyers armed with missile-defence systems – and two similarly equipped warships from the South Korean navy – are in place off the Korean coast.

The Chinese are taking things a bit more cautiously according to the Indian Express Some larger border crossings between North Korea and China have been closed to tourists, but not to business travelersgiving the North Korean’s a sense that they are being taken seriously by the Chinese, yet, not so much as to interfere with business.

One would think therefore, if the North Korean’s were close to destroying interests in the area that would in any way affect the Chinese, there would be an immediate reaction from China. Not strongly worded condemnations, or sanctions, rather, one might see the Chinese put an end to the nonsense by means one can only imagine. China is one of the North’s only allies, and one that has the cash to supply the North with food, fuel and weapons aplenty. North Korea may bluff and bluster and annoy the planet from their perch near the North Pole, but, in reality the Chinese would be pulling the final strings. China of itself is somewhat of a mystery, and it would be difficult for the East to ascertain what might be going on behinds the scenes. Therefore, that begs the question: If the Chinese aren’t on the border or “inviting” young Un visit China for an extended period of time, then one might suppose that the saber rattling is, for all intents and purposes “show and tell”. Alternately, if the Chinese have lost control of the North, then one might have a crazy man about to start a nuclear war – because he can. Yet should young Un fire a nuclear missile that actually hit a target of import - how long would the Chinese allow him unfettered reign?

The Council of Foreign Relations has an outline of the relationship between nations at crf.org/chine/chine-north-Korea-relationship, in which it outlines the dependence of the Korean State on China, the history of the relationship, and the lengths to which the Chinese have gone to strongly condemn any foolishness coming from their neighbor. The basis for the article – expert analysis of the relationship as well as the potential for any serious problems arising – given the close proximity of the Chinese and the value they place on North Korea – it is worth reading.

There may be a reason to take the young dictator in Chief a bit seriously, but then again, there are the Chinese. One might suspect that Wednesday will come and go without much incident – or, should the Young Un of North Korea behave irrationally (One might be reminded of the Caesar - Nero), then China would, in all likelihood, respond in force.

Then again, assuming the experts are wrong, and looking at the “face” of relationships between North Korea and China, have not compensated for a crazy person on the Throne in North Korea, with an untested Chinese leader next door. It makes for great headlines. The truth is, all is speculation, and the society, as closed as it is in the Eastern nations, makes speculation the rule, not the exception. What is not disputed is the debt owed to the Chinese by the North Korean State and its monarchial dictatorship. The very basis of North Korea’s survival being dependent on the Chinese gives one the impression that this is a lot of bluff and bluster.

North Korea and the Dangers of Insulation, The Press and the Unhinged. What if Young Un gave a threat and Nobody Reacted?

Enough Said - image from T2C online

When one thinks of North Korea, one normally knows very little about the country – other than it is a communist dictatorship, propped up by China, which starves its population of both food and light, especially those who are perceived as a threat to the “government”. There is literally no escape from North Korea, except by a treacherous route, and should one survive the journey, one is then sentencing their family to a life in a camp that will kill them. In meeting an individual from the north of China, speaking about the Korean’s, the stories told are chilling. The North Korean’s, should they escape to China, are summarily returned in a fashion similar to that used during the Dark Ages, and then executed. This is plain sight of nationals on both sides of the border. It is in keeping with a culture that is incomprehensible to those living in the West, as are most eastern or “exotic” nations-those that are perceived to be “modern”, are, in essence, dangerously living centuries behind in terms of human rights, and those governments relationships with their citizens. This is the non-politically correct assessment.

North Korea, under a third-generation dictatorship, is the unusual position of having a young individual as the “Head of State”, and as the “Supreme Rule”, or some such moniker, Kim Jung Un. He is attempting to establish himself both globally and one would suspect with a nation where, although starving and deprived of essentials, the admiration of the citizen is essential, in his own country. Therefore, in order to show his strength, the young man has decided to threaten the world with nuclear war.

How is the world reacting, especially the U.S. where the majority of the threats are aimed, as well as our ally, South Korea, which, is one of the most developed nations, along with Japan in that area, on a par with the U.S.

This young man, who, according to ABC News, is not running the country at all, it is his Aunt and Uncle that are pulling the strings, however, this is based on speculation. One would suspect that not unlike the Caesar’s of Rome, or any of the European Kings brought early to the throne, he is of his own mind, regardless of whether or not he has the wherewithal to lead someone across the street, let alone a nation.

This is why the situation is now growing increasingly out of control. The North Korean’s have the capability of launching missiles, as to how far is still open to speculation, however, with the aid of their allies, such as China, they are on target to produce a nuclear warhead, if they do not already have them, again, that’s an unknown. The U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry is issuing warnings to the North Korean’s, suggesting the “rhetoric is provocative, dangerous, reckless”, in an attempt to warn the young leader that the nation has gone too far. (Guardian UK) Meanwhile, the North Korean’s have suggested they will reopen a nuclear complex that is capable of producing bomb grade materials. (Guardian UK). This morning, the New York Times and other media are reportingthat the North Korean’s have blocked the South Korean’s from entering a shared industrial complex, adding “fuel” to the fire.

The U.S. has already deployed naval support to the area, including radar that has the capability to transmit data to equipment that would then block the missiles from hitting their intended targets. The young leader has mapped out targets in his “war room”, that include U.S. cities on the east and west coast, as well as Hawaii – one of the cities suggested is Austin Texas. (Washington Post.)

It is, and has been, a great deal of posturing, however, that is what makes the situation and the way it is handled diplomatically dangerous. Perhaps, not unlike those living in nations where threats against the U.S. are constant, there is a rage against the west, primarily because the West has the capabilities to produce and distribute much to a free people, including soft drinks, and one would suspect in the minds of the North Korean’s, ample electricity allowing even the most remote U.S. cities to have actual lights on in the evening. Thus the family dictatorship chose to focus on a military build-up, spending every cent on attaining the pretense of power, while their citizens starve and live in the dark.

There is no reasoning, or threats, or bribes (the U.S. has given aid to North Korean in the past in exchange for their promise not to build nuclear weapons under several administrations.) that are adequate in the face of what is, for lack of better words, insanity and ignorance of the world.

What if the U.S., instead of issuing warnings, just ignored the young sprout? What if, the U.S. quietly, without the media blaring World War III, moved a few ships to Japan, which is not usual on the face of it? What would happen if the youngster did not get world press and turn into a parody of a cartoon character hell bent on destroying the world? What would one’s 2 year old do? The child might throw a fit, perhaps break something, but if no one responded, would they not come to realize that perhaps, just perhaps, their tantrums were being ignored, and perhaps, just perhaps, better behavior was in order?

That scenario offers a risk yes, but in a world that is on the brink of a potential catastrophe, using a little child psychology mixed in with diplomacy might just do the trick. In the event that junior deicided to lob a missile at the U.S., then, it is apparent we have the capabilities to deflect that action. At that point, it would behoove our allies, especially China, to step in and put down the very heavy economic boot, refusing to give further food or military aid to the nation. Actually, in a perfect world, such a gesture from China would be the first step, however, better late than never.