2012 GOP Update - Santorum Wins Kansas – 51% of the Vote, Romney 21% – Bests Obama in National Polling with Romney – Next Up Alabama and Mississippi

Santorum Campaigns in Kansas -Takes 51% of vote - image CNN


Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are both leading President Obama in a new Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, this tops off a day with Santorum taking the state of Kansas by a wide margin. Santorum, with 88% of the precincts reporting in had 51% of the vote to Romney’s 20%, Gingrich 14% and Ron Paul 14% winning the majority of the 40 delegates at stake – Mitt Romney will pick up 7 (Kansas.com) Meanwhile, Mitt Romney, the GOP establishment choice, picked up the territory of Guam, with a total of , 9 delegates. Currently, the delegate count stands at Romney 442 delegates, Santorum's 214, Gingrich 107 and Paul has 46, according to the AP. (Wall Street Journal).

A good percentage off Romney’s delegates are from Endorsements of establishment Republicans who have pledged their support as a delegate. Romney has squeaked thorough wins in states where he was expected to win handily, such as Michigan, against Santorum who has a wide appeal to those blue collar and independent voters, necessary to win a general election. Both Romney and Gingrich did not appear and or work in Kansas, instead Romney headed to the islands, and Gingrich went to Alabama ahead of the Tuesday primaries there, in a Custeresque attempt to make a stand. There is no clear manner in which Gingrich or Ron Paul can amass the 1140 delegates necessary to win the nomination. However, both Santorum or Romney would be, given the momentum be able to meet the delagate count with the states remaining.
It is now apparent that Gingrich may not pull even Alabama, as Santorum is now in a statistical tie for 1st with Gingrich, at 18.3 to Gingrich’s 18.9% of those polled, Romney is at 15%, 28% undecided and willing to change their minds. This is a huge shift from the Feb. 2nd poll, where Santorum was in single digits (AL.com)

It is a two man race now, heading into the south and west, where California finds Santorum on Romney’s heels in the latest polling, and Texas where Santorum has a huge lead in the polls 45% to Gingrich's 18 and Romney's 16. At this point, both Gingrich and Paul are footnotes, however, Gingrich is appearing as a "spoiler" in states where Romney has won by a small margin, with Santorum only 2 to 3 points behind such as Ohio and Michigan, giving rise to speculation that Gingrich is running only to outflank Santorum in order for Romney to have a win - this in a favor to the GOP establishment.

Romney continues to have problems with half the Republican base, as well as Independents and Democrats. As the “pre-ordained” front-runner, his persona has been likened to that of Bob Dole, another moderate who lost to Bill Clinton. The GOP establishment formula for running moderates has been known to fail repeatedly, as the candidates lack both charisma and an inability to attract their own base.
With this win in Kansas, Santorum will head into the south with the momentum, despite the negative attacks coming from both Romney and Gingrich. With Santorum able to win the key states necessary in a General Election, his ability to connect with voters and polling suggesting he can best the President, in early March, he is at the same place Ronald Reagan was (historically) in 1980. George H.W. Bush gave up his quest against Reagan in May of that year- there was talk of a brokered convention due to the fact that Reagan was “not electable”, a “clown”, and that he was “far too conservative” to win in a general. Reagan went on to win handily, not once, but twice, even taking the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. It was after his stunning victory that the GOP establishment “got religion” and took credit for Reagan as one of their own. History, as “they” say, has a way of repeating itself.

Santorum Trifecta! Wins Colorado (40%), Minnesota (45%) and Missouri (55%) Caucuses – Decisive Victories – A New Front-Runner in the GOP - Analysis

Rick Santorum and Karen Santorum, the perfect couple, celebrate pre-victory speech in Missouri - image: Washington Post

At approximately 1:30 am EST, the State GOP of Colorado reported that Rick Santorum had won the Colorado GOP Caucus, bringing the third victory of the night to the former Pennsylvania Senator, and GOP Presidential candidate. Earlier, the states of Minnesota and Missouri had weighed in with Santorum as a clear preference in the all important middle of the nation – where Santorum had won Iowa, in the first of the nation decision. Colorado, a Western State that had shown clear preferences for moderates in 2008, chose the more Conservative Santorum, who has a solid economic plan that includes, in Santorum’s words “not 99 or 95, but 100% of the people”. The second generation, Italian American, hails from a blue-collar background and staunchly defended those manufacturing jobs so important to Pennsylvania, and the nation, during his tenure in the Senate. He drew a sharp distinction between himself and the former front-runner and establishment candidate, Mitt Romney, and went on to challenge the nation’s voters in a call to support his candidacy that was nothing short of commanding. It was the premise, that Santorum could not win due to a lack of funds and name recognition, and that he had run a ground game in Iowa, where he had visited every corner of the state, explained his Iowa victory. It was anticipated by the media and pundits that this fiscal and social conservative, with a squeaky clean record, was a nice guy who would be the first to drop out due to the inevitability of a Romney coronation – it is now apparent that this myth has been exploded. Romney, in his speech in Denver, tampered down expectations of a Colorado win early, noting he hoped to come in first or second, and then congratulated Santorum for winning both Missouri and Minnesota – it was anticipated that Santorum would win the Missouri contest, which was a precursor with no delegates awarded, and a primary to be held in March, but it was expected that Romney would win both Minnesota and Colorado, by pundits and the constant drumbeat of a the eventual nomination of former Bay State Governor.

Perhaps more than any other reason, the lower turnout at GOP caucuses and primaries can best be explained by the fact that the GOP establishment and the media have been noting that Romney was the eventual nominee, regardless of the fact that only four states had weighed in by close of January. The fact that the former Governor, U.S. Olympic CEO and CEO and founder of an investment firm, Bain Capital, had not gotten support in the polls form the beginning, apparently did not dissuade those in the elite of the GOP from pushing Romney forward – and it has backfired. The fact is that Romney, although well-intentioned, appears stiff and unapproachable, and his former policies as Governor, do little to contrast himself as an alternative to President Obama. It is, as if to say to caucus voters and to those who voted in early primaries – why show up and vote – the winner has been established.

Newt Gingrich, who had vowed to stay in the race and defeat Romney, has more than accomplished this task, and the longer he stays in the race, goading Romney, the more this boosts Santorum, who stands above the fray of the petty personal attacks that have all but destroyed Gingrich and Romney in the eyes of the electorate. Romney, who’s Super Pac began the assault on Gingrich as frontrunner, when he rose in the polls, and then later after Gingrich won South Carolina, attacking him outright through his campaign, was met by a rebuttal by Gingrich’s campaign as well as the Super Pac which supports Gingrich – Romney, more than any other candidate, is the one that the Obama administration would prefer to face in the fall, and now are faced with the possibility of an extended GOP primary, that will result in the end, not in the Romney anticipated win, but with a Santorum win, one which would pit a working class hero up against the elite, a complete reversal of the roles most often associated with both political parties.

It would not, in this opinion, be any surprise, if on Super Tuesday, Santorum bested Romney in Massachusetts, and going forward, taking those states in what are known as swing states rounding out the primary season. The Romney attack machine has already taken one shot at the Senator and apparently that fell flat, as Santorum refuses to rise to the bait, and calmly points out the discrepancies in policies, and refutes the inaccuracy of the attacks. Rasmussen Polling, which now shows Santorum leading Obama, while Romney falls short, also played a part in the narrative that the grandson of an Italian immigrant, who worked it the coal mines of Pennsylvania could, indeed, go onto become the President of these United States.

With this three-state victory, it will be clear to voters that the narrative is not as strong in the case for Romney and one might anticipate larger turn-out in the upcoming primaries, particularly on Super Tuesday. That will be the “winnowing” field for those four candidates that are left in the race: Gingrich, Romney, Paul and Santorum, all vowing, however, to stay up until the Convention.

The 70 delegates that were up for grabs in yesterdays contests will be awarded in March (CNN), and although the current delegate count favors Romney (who won two states, and has been given delegates by the GOP), the figure is at approximately 102 delegates – there’s a long road to the 1140 that is necessary to win the nomination.

What to expect going forward: Attacks on Santorum by the Romney campaign (or its Super Pac) and attacks by the media, which will, in all likelihood, attempt to portray Santorum as the “religious right”, a candidate that is all about Social Issues rather than a complete candidate who is also strong on foreign policy, economics and jobs. He is, in this bloggers minds, the anti-Obama, having been one of those that had searched for an alternative and actually listened to the narrative that nice guys finish last – clearly and specifically in the case of Rick Santorum - not so.

Next up: (Presidentialelectionnews.com): February 28th, Arizona and Michigan, March 3rd Washington, and finally March 6: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia – next debate: Feb. 22, CNN

Santorum’s speech below, is worth watching, it depicts a man that does present, in his words, “Not a clear contrast to Mitt Romney, but a clear contrast to Barack Obama”


Learn more about Rick Santorum and where he stands on the issues: www.ricksantorum.com