ABC New Hampshire Debate Winner January 8 – Santorum and Huntsman, Romney Robotic, Gingrich – Perry shut out of Debate forum.

Santorum and Romney NH Debate 1 8 12 - image MSNBC

The ABC New Hampshire Debate which took place last evening and is being touted as a win for Romney by the media, is being viewed somewhat differently from those watching the debate and wondering why the Media is now “in the tank” for Romney (perhaps it’s his use of a teleprompter – see Iowa post-caucus speech, where he did not use his teleprompter as he wanted to “speak from the heart”), perhaps it’s the fact that Obama’s team is more prepared for Romney than any other candidate, or perhaps, just perhaps, they see an Obama defeat, and want the most progressive, moderate to win the nomination. However, the manner in which the placement of the candidates and the focus on certain candidates was done, it left one with the impression that Rick Santorum and John Huntsman were of most import (and this may have been done to polling placement as well, however – it did not help Mitt Romney or particularly hurt him nationally) – Ron Paul’s attacks on Santorum left no doubt that Santorum is now the front-runner, and although he has, from the beginning left Romney alone, it may be due to the fact that Paul perceived himself as the Anti-Romney.
It was, in truth, boring.

Those who consider themselves political junkies were looking for a fight and/or a contrast between the much hyped Gingrich-Romney feud, yet, Gingrich took few shots at Romney, most likely by design and most likely because he was not offered a chance. Rick Perry’s performance was standard Perry – he was sensible up until his comments on the Iraq War, stumbled a bit in some speech, but at this point in the game, know that all will be won or lost in SC. The next debate in less than one hour, on NBC’s “meet the press”, one may find it is not on one’s local listings as a debate. It will be interesting to see how this debate is formatted, (seating wise it may be expected to remain the same).

Therefore, the ABC debate winner was clearly Santorum, for his clear concise remarks, and his rebuttals and defense of attacks by Ron Paul. Second was Romney, by virtue of the length of time he took up during the debate, and his constant smile, - noted by some as “somewhat creepy, but it looks like he knows what he’s talking about, even though what he is saying makes little sense”. Thank God for DVR’s, as what this blogger found about Mitt Romney, is that not unlike McCain, he is the national sleeping pill, in this opinion, and having watched perhaps too many debates, his tone is steady, he never wavers, and he has the look of someone who is in Control, yet in a monochrome manner, which can be soothing – so much so that no one can possibly pay attention, and falls into a near coma as a result. It was the same tactic, and look, that was also evident in the DNC debates of 2008 – whereby Obama would look like he was talking and yet, Clinton has excitement on her side.
Here is the warning, it is the candidate that is inspiring and that will get out the vote, from both Conservatives and moderates and yes Democrats, not the monochrome, made for TV candidate, that will win the day in this election – when one has no contrast with one’s opponent as far as the general public perceives, then there is the old adage: better the devil we know, than the devil we don’t.

Judging from the responses, Santorum clearly won, and Romney is the guy that is most like Obama – this was not this bloggers first impression. The first impression was that Romney had won, based on steady answers, length of time, and the shut out of the most formidable debater (New Gingrich), however, after listening to others that were not as heavily vested, and reviewing the tapes, indeed, it is Santorum who was clearly the winner in this debate.

2012 GOP Poll Watch – WSJ - By The Numbers, Cain Leads, 68% Satisfied with Current GOP Eight: Poll Demo’s: 40% Dem 19% Ind., 36% Rep., 5% Other

The GOP Field - Majority - Satisfied

A Wall Street Journal Poll conducted October 6-10 has headlined as Herman Cain Leads “Republican” Field “on various websites linking to the poll data. However, when one takes a closer look at that data one finds that Cain and, in fact, the “Field of Eight” do quite well even crossing party lines – For example: 63% of those polls are satisfied and aware of the GOP field, and 40% of those polled are Democrats, the proof as they say is in the math.

Other “gems “found in this poll, but not getting much notice: 74% of those polled feel the nation is headed down the wrong road – 57% Feel the President is not doing a great job handling the economy, the Democrat and Republican Parties are equally loathed by (42% (Dem), 44% (Rep.) – and Job Creation is the number one issue topping at 70%, when GOP Voters are identified the figure remains high at 60%, second most important issue (both political affiliation): the deficit and federal spending.


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

Those who are anticipating voting and are more enthusiastic for the 2012 election than other years, and the total is high - 50% are more enthusiastic, 11% are the Same, and 38% are less enthusiastic (See Demographics while sitting down).


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

On voting in the primary: 30% intend to vote in the Republican Party, while 26% intend to vote in the Democrat Party with 39% holding until the General Election – and 5% either other or not sure.


click to enlarge poll data image via pdf msnbc

Finally, among voters who indicated they would be voting in the Republican Primary: the candidates in order of “Positivity” or how much they are known/liked:
Herman Cain: 46%, Romney: 35%, Gingrich: 26%, Perry: 20% and Rick Santorum: 15% - the balance of the candidates has a single digit “positivity score”.

However if the election were held today, those intending to vote would choose Herman Cain, (by 5 points), Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Ron Paul (The balance in single digits)

Therefore, what we find, as of this particular poll (and other polls where Cain is either leading and/or points from Mitt Romney): Cain, a non-Washington Candidate is leading, Democrats are jumping ship, those in either party do not approve of their party, and going into the general enthusiasm is fairly high among what one can assume by the numbers: Republicans and Republican leaners.

Finally and of most import - overall President Obama still is personally perceived well: in positivity – tying with Herman Cain with all voters at a score of 6, Romney is next In line at a -2 on the net Positive/Negative test.

This is how the Field stands going into Tuesday nights’ debate, which will be broadcast on CNN at 8 pm EST. Cain and Romney are the two most under scrutiny at this point, should Perry or Newt Gingrich or Paul rise to the top in the ensuing weeks, it would be the same. However, this debate bears watching, as do each performance of these eight candidates; this constant debate cycle shows several things to the primary voter: how well the candidate takes criticism (especially the current front-runner, who will be basically put under the negative spotlight consistently by both the moderator and if allowed, the other candidates), How well prepared the candidate is, and if not prepared, comes back with an honest, no, finally, to all those Democrats watching and showing an interest in the GOP candidates – the individuals sense of humor and ability to speak to the issues. (Most often said by left of center associates: a) who knew Republicans had a sense of humor, and b) who knew Republican’s have actual plans.)

One important factor to the media and beltway pundits is: the Cash! – Right at the moment, the leaders in the Cash Field are Romney, Perry, Paul, Bachmann and Cain – (in Order), however, as one can recall from 2008 and before, the Candidate with the Most Cash going in, does not always end up being the nominee – therefore, this year should promise to be any different.

What to watch for in the coming weeks: The President will most likely continue to campaign with the Occupy theme, Herman Cain plans to establish a presence in key primary states: New Hampshire and Iowa specifically – of course, these are important “early states” however, the southern state schedule, which has also moved up will play the most important roll given what took place in the 2008 primary. (Romney took NH, Huckabee IA, and McCain (with a little help from Fred Thompson who knocked out Huckabee) took South Carolina - at which point the die was cast, and contenders began to pull back, with Romney the first to call it quits and incidentally the candidate with the biggest “war chest”.

Overall Democrats appear to be willing to vote (today) along party lines, with a close race called for Obama as incumbent and any Republican – 44/42% (Obama 44%) – Note: This is the only pollster showing that Obama is in positive territory when it comes to reelection.

Therefore, although Cain leads the field, and the field is perceived as satisfactory by a majority of voters (all parties), the logic follows that he is, at the present time, the best choice to achieve the goal of taking the White House. Should Herman Cain's name recognition among likely voters rise, and his positives rise with that recognition, then he would be the definitive candidate to beat the Incumbent.

Criticism Mounts from both the Far Left and the Far Right – Bizarre Questions Arise About Texas Gov. Rick Perry – Timed for Iowa Announcement?

Comedian Colbert's PAC Released Iowa Ad - Image CNN



There has been a lot of hype surrounding the Governor of Texas, Rick Perry, and his pending entrance into the 2012 GOP Race, with several polls showing the Texas Governor to come in second to Mitt Romney, whose unsuccessful run in 2008, compelled him to seek the nomination a second time to the maxim: “If at First you don’t’ succeed, try, try again.”. From a Bay State perspective, Mitt Romney’s popularity among conservatives is mind-boggling, of course, they did not live in Massachusetts while he was Governor, therefore, they might want to ask the “man on the street” so to speak.

The poll that appears most conflicted in this projection is the Gallup Poll released August 9th, 2011, with Romney as Front Runner, and Perry coming in Second without having made a formal announcement. In viewing the poll graphic (Below) the projection was based on a combination of two factors; the favorability and unfavorabilty of the candidate minus name recognition. The Candidate who appears to have the highest name recognition, but does not perform overall in the poll is Sarah Palin, who also has not announced. The methodology and questions, however, available here from gallup.com in pdf apparently leave Palin off the main questions – included on question five (presumably after the demographic questions: From Gallup PDF: [RANDOM ORDER: Minnesota Congresswoman, Michele Bachmann; Businessman, Herman Cain; Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich; Former Utah governor, Jon Huntsman; Texas Congressman, Ron Paul; Former Minnesota governor, Tim Pawlenty; Texas governor, Rick Perry; Former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney; Former Pennsylvania senator, Rick Santorum].



poll restults graph from Gallup


Now Rick Perry, who is a third term Governor of the State of Texas (no mean feat),( and who was brought back from the precipice during the 2100 primary by one Sarah Palin, in his bid for a third term against Republican Establishment and Texas staple, Kay Bailey Hutchinson) is under attack – from the right and from the left, and these “attacks” can leave someone conflicted.

The left brings out the clowns:

First mediaite.com.

Certainly there are more examples, but these two take the proverbial cake.

From the right:

A brouhaha developed in Tennessee , when an endorsement from a State official of Perry drew fire, not necessarily for the content, but the fact brought forth in defense of Perry as he is a reformed Democrat, and in fact, had been the Texas Campaign Manager for Al Gore’s Presidential campaign. Again, Al Gore!!!

From Politico comes a piece by former Congressman Tom Tancredo (seriously, writing for Politico), who outs Perry as overly sympathetic to our neighbors from the South - The Title: “Rick Perry not true conservative” is vintage Tancredo – he makes Rick Perry sound like – Good Golly – Mike Huckabee (in part) for some of the stances Perry took regarding the Border and In-State Tuition for children of Illegal Immigrants.

Given the aforementioned, it is quite possible that Perry, according to Maddow, is the next Obama, (rather Perry is backed by crazy right-wing preachers rather than crazy old socialists and hippies). In addition, what one gets’ from Colbert’s ad is that Perry with an A, (ad running in Iowa), uses guns. (Obviously, this as is not to be taken seriously and is one of Colbert’s jokes (hopefully). As anyone knows, those Iowa Republican’s know every name there is both on and off the ballot, and no where on earth can one find that many political junkies in one geographical area.

The message sent by these two aforementioned clowns: Perry is a right wing, gun toting, evangelical nut who thinks he’s the second coming. Then from the right, Perry is “soft" on illegal immigrants and he is a “Former Gore Democrat!!”

If nothing else, Perry’s entrance into the race is at, the very least, entertaining, and with his Perry’s Gubernatorial “Savior” heading into Iowa with her Bus Tour this week, Perry’s purpose in the GOP Presidential fray may finally become clear. Perry is to Romney as Thompson was to Romney/Huckabee in 2008 – the question is; which candidate that has not yet announced will be able to capitalize at this late date? That will be left as an open-ended question for readers to ponder.

Of course, that blatantly hinted scenario would give Rachel Maddow hours of endless conspiracy theory speculation, while providing Tina Fey with employment for a few more years.

MSNBC’s Maddow, Matthews and O’Donnell - See Obama Easily Re-Elected – The Press and the Battle Against Conservatives – How it will Backfire

As the 2012 campaign is in the early stages, given the fact that the lazy days of summer have not yet ended, and the GOP field is considered to be fluid at this point, and the primary battles will not begin for another five months, there are no crystal balls available to predict any outcomes at this point, not for one of the GOP candidates who will go on to campaign against President Obama or the outcome of that contest. However, polls can be seen as an indicator of what might take place in the Presidential race of 2012, specifically those that point to a nations view of a sitting President’s job performance, that is unless one factors in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts and the Press.
The Commonwealth of Massachusetts has been used by David Axelrod, campaign manager, mentor and political guru for both the State’s Govenor Deval Patrick, but especially, President Obama. To those who view President Obama as unelectable, consider that Massachusetts’s Deval Patrick won re-election with a 39% approval rating, besting the Republican opponent, Charlie Baker, by one point. Axelrod, on the eve of the Massachusetts elections noted that he would be watching the Massachusetts Governors Race, one would think due to his close relationship with Deval Patrick, however, he has been known to repeat strategy – borrowing from Patrick and lending to Obama, right down to the slogans.

The Massachusetts race appeared, on the surface, to be going in the direction of the challenger, however, there was a third party candidate, former Democrat turned Independent, turned Democrat, Tim Cahill, who also ran for the Governor’s race. Cahill, running as an independent, ended up siphoning off enough votes to pull out a “squeaker” for Patrick, this despite the fact that the Northeast in general is known to raid nursing homes, cemeteries and ballot boxes in order to ensure that an incumbent stays in office. Should the need arise, and should one of the Conservative Candidates start polling in double digits against Obama in 2012, watch carefully for an emergence of a third party candidate that suddenly found religion as a moderate conservative. Although the entire nation is not Massachusetts (or so those living here assumed, for years calling the Commonwealth the affectionate moniker “The People’s Republic”), the politics and specifically the strategy has been exported nationwide. Suggested reading running up to 2012: ”The Bluest State: How Democrats Created the Massachusetts Blueprint for American Political Disaster”, by Jon Keller. Although it may appear on the surface, to be partisan, one should understand the Keller provides an interesting perspective on Massachusetts politics which includes both major party and the players involved: in other words, this was written as a warning – one which the rest of the nation did not hear.

Axelrod, being only human, must, therefore, rely on a Progressive Press. MSNBC, which parent company NBC is owned by GE, of Immelt fame, is one of the major “cheerleaders for the President”. Putting aside conspiracy theories regarding Immelt's close ties to the President, and the fact that GE paid no taxes, and exported jobs outside of the U.S. while working as an Advisor to President Obama, it is a stretch that those pundits on the third rated cable news network (MSNBC), are taking cues from anyone, other than their own deep rooted Progressive Ideology. At a recent panel discussion on politicsMSNBC Hosts, Rachael Maddow, Chris Matthews, and O’Donnell predicted that Obama would be reelected the AP story is of itself, not news to anyone who even stops to watch the network for more than 5 minutes, however, it is the fact that the Progressives within the Press, both on air and in print, are of the same mindset. The mindset where one can pick up any daily paper, or listen to any local or national broadcast and find that the “Republican” or “Conservatives” are derided for what-have-you, and the Democrats are held in highest esteem. Should there be a scandal associated with a politician, one finds the word “Republican” inserted before the name of the individual who has an ethics problem, however, if that politician is a Democrat, there is, for the most part, no identification of party. This is nothing new and it has been noticeable by those moderate and independents reading and watching broadcast for the past twenty years. The bias is towards conservatives as well as the State of Israel, read any article watch any political broadcast and that is what one will begin find, the use of subjective adjectives that, inserted carefully deride one party and promote another. The fact that half of the nation (approximately) supports one over the other is apparently lost on those who print and broadcast and they are also gloriously unaware of the fact that this has affected both their ratings as well as their circulation. Just ask the gloating New Corp (they are in trouble, granted, over the whole wire tapping, al la Nixon charge – another bias), who has gained where others have lost, for employing a “balance reporting style”.

Therefore, not one of the candidates in the 2012 GOP field will be given positive press, either in print or otherwise, even if they walked on water, made it rain in Texas, or basically had better, yet much different ideas on how to manage (govern) the nation. From Michelle Bachmann and Sarah Palin, the two most egregious Conservatives due to the fact that they are also women (and should by Progressive think, be supporting abortion rights against pro-life rights), are consistently derided – it is the adjectives, keep in mind, that tell the story to the greater public. With the aforementioned, and the recent attack from the left on “Tea Party” activism – (basically a movement, not an organization that believes we are Taxed Enough Already”), complete with the Vice President of the United States dubbing them as “Terrorists”, (the buffoons, personal opinion), one find each article or broadcast regarding the aforementioned GOP candidate and possible candidate prefaced by “Tea Party”.

Governor Rick Perry, who is on the verge of announcing his candidacy for the Presidency has given the anti-God, anti-fiscal, counter-culture, spread-the-wealth, live-in-a-commune and take me back to the sixties Progressives, a plethora of new articles and broadcasts from which to pontificate on the horrors of a Perry Presidency. He is religious, he is a Texan, a Conservative, a Republican and of course, “Tea Party” (now that they are all “Terrorists”). What of Rick Perry’s Presidential bid and the Media:
See CBS “Will Rick Perry answer the religious right's prayers?” The most feared words a Progressive believes exists in the U.S. is “Religious Right”, then read the article and look for the “key words”.

An excellent article on Perry appeared in the Texas Tribune, this follows his formative years: at Texas A&M, and is the best “biographical” piece one can find on a potential GOP 2012 candidate from the press.

The Monkey Wrench – The American Public.

The public will continue to watch the economy spiral downward, and every indicator from Moody’s to your local grocer, is indicative that it can and will get worse, regardless of Obama not having to deal with any debt ceilings after the debt ceiling has been raised by a dysfunctional Congress, until after the 2012 elections (While worry about the nations finances while on the campaign trail? – By the way – both political parties took part in this decision – never mind the fiscal ramifications.) In that instance Party is generally thrown aside while people cast their ballot for the person at the top of the ticket who would appear to be likely to solve the problem. The most recent example of this phenomenon was the election of 1980, the president: James Carter, the challenger: Ronald Reagan – who, by the way, won Massachusetts. Regan, at the time was cast as the religious, right, nutcase, conservative, not overly bright, he was, after all, only an “actor”, the in-concert press hammered day and night, until the election was over, then they went to work demeaning everything that Reagan did, was about to do, or might have done.
He was easily elected to a second term.

Rick Perry, more than any other possible candidate, is the most likely coming out of the gate, to defy the press and upset the Axelrod model. He is not Ronald Reagan, no one is, but Perry is now the one to watch. Other candidates announced worth watching, sleeper Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann, and Herman Cain. Darn that Tea Party.

Polling firm references to Consider:

Gallup Polling: Confidence In Institutions: Specifically see Newspapers, Broadcast Television and the Presidency – compare to:

Gallup Polling: Gallup Confidence in Institutions 2010

Gallup Polling Presidential Job Approval

Rasmussen Reports : Presidential Job Approval

Public Policy Polling National Miscellaneous Poll