John Kerry (D-MA) – To be Secretary of State – Safe Senate Replacement - Dem’s to Possibly Choose Dukakis

John Kerry pictured with Michael Dukakis - from the blog beldar.blogs.com

The replacement for Hillary Clinton, who will be leaving her post as Secretary of State has boiled down to the man who brought Barack Obama to the forefront the Senator from Massachusetts, John Forbes Kerry(Boston Herald) Kerry, who has served as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be an easy nomination for the President. Kerry and Republican Senator, John McCain, both having run for the office Of the President, have worked together over the years; in the “club” that is the Senate. For all the bluff and bluster that comes with general elections, (the media recounts of what was said, so viciously, the name calling that takes place, when partisanship trumps the congenial worth done in that august body over an election), it appears that Kerry would sail through a nomination with ease.

Massachusetts will need to replace Kerry, that task falls to the Governor, Duval Patrick – who is required to name a replacement until a special election can be held. The Hill is reporting that the most likely possibility for Kerry’s replacement is the 79 year old, Michael Dukakis, former Governor of Massachusetts and also a Presidential candidate” Dukakis would be a reliable Democrat vote in the Senate, and had recently helped in the campaign for Senator Elect, Elizabeth Warren. Also said to be lobbying for the seat are several of the Congressional Democrats from the state, Capuano, Lynch and Markey. Republican’s who might run for the open seat are Weld, Baker and Brown. (The Hill) The later three are considered “Moderate Republicans” by most standards – with experience with Brown showing a more Independent streak from the party in his voting pattern in the Senate. That said a moderate Republican from Massachusetts is more likely to focus on the vote on hand than be more like a rubber stamp as the case with Dukakis.

Duval Patrick has also noted he will not run for reelection – several of the above referenced on both sides have indicated an interest in running for Govenor. Republican’s, although in short supply, have historically had success at running and winning the Governor’s office in the Bay State. Brown made history in 2009 when he won the special election to the U.S. Senate replacing Ted Kennedy. There are few Republicans that have managed to obtain a Congressional or Senate seat in the “Bluest State”, which begs the question: If a Republican can be handily elected to the Governor’s office, why the difficulty in procuring a Senate or Congressional Seat? – One would think, that with 51% of the States electorate opting for non-party status as “unenrolled”, the option for choosing an alternative to the “status quo’ would be welcome - that said, ground troops, something that is necessary in winning the City Council seat, is lacking on the Republican side in Massachusetts. How then, did the Republican’s ascend to the Governor’s office, or Brown the Senate – general disgust by the people of policies in place that directly affected them at that given time. With Patrick, pro-tax, that may be an easier route for the aforementioned Republican’s to take. That said, in Massachusetts, nothing is impossible, if the ground game, and grassroots are in place for whoever the GOP candidate may be.

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick’s Approval at 36%, Obama Approval Drops below 50% - Tales of Dukakis and Carter.

News of "Stimulus" Signs - Massachusetts residents Not Impressed - photo: Springfield Republican

A new poll conducted by the Boston Globe last week showed Deval Patrick’s approval among state residents has remained low at 36%. In a match-up with both Republican gubernatorial candidates, Christy Mihos and Charles Baker, Patrick is at a “dead heat” – he does no better should Democrat turned Independent Timothy Cahill, enter the race. Regardless of who the Governor faces, 16 months prior to the election, he is faced with poll numbers similar to Dukakis in 1983 (35%), which made headlines suggesting that then Presidential Candidate Walter Mondale, was afraid of Massachusetts voters.

Deval Patrick’s “political cousin”, Barak Obama (both under the mentoring of David Axelrod), is now under 50% for job approval, with just 6 months into his administration. The Rasmussen Daily tracking poll for Sunday, July 26th, showed the strongly disapproves now at 40% with the strongly approves falling to 29 %.

Of particular interest is the fact that both men used the same “slogan’s” and made the same campaign promises (hope, change, tax cuts for the middle-class), pre-election, with the results, upon election, quickly showing little change, and tax cuts (in Massachusetts) to be non-existent. It would appear, at this point, that Patrick is clearly not electable, regardless of who runs against him. Although, Patrick has made the case that it is not “his fault” that the economy is in its present state, it is a stretch, to say the least – bad management is simply bad management – Massachusetts voters were told in 2008 that to repeal the state income tax (which would have been a tax cut) would result in loss of jobs statewide, are now experiencing loss of jobs statewide, even with the Federal Stimulus funds apportioned to Massachusetts.

Evidence of the Stimulus at work, came in the form of signs touting the Stimulus at work, placed along Massachusetts Roadways - comments on the article are decidedly negative. It is a known fact, in Massachusetts, that Barack Obama and Deval Patrick have a better relationship (given their similar backgrounds as well as ties to Axelrod), which led some to believe that Massachusetts would fare better in any bailout (or Stimulus) program. As Massachusetts residents (and retailers), rush to stock shelves prior to the 25% sales tax increase effective August 1st, the comments under the article (here) are pointing to the “liberal” tax and spend legislature and Governor (Patrick).

The “liberal” label has been firmly attached to Obama who is now viewed with that “tag” by 76% of registered voters.(Note: Rasmussen polling uses registered voters, rather than "adults" (most survey's taken use "adults" - allowing non-voters to be factored into the results)

Although, given the timing, Obama will, in all likelihood, not have to worry about Patrick’s popularity, in 2012 when it comes to the state of Massachusetts - he will have to worry about his own. Patrick is to Dukakis (Mondale) as Obama is to Carter.