2012 Is Massachusetts in Play for the GOP? Just for Giggles – Why Is MA being Polled for Obama? Why is the Warren Campaign Push Polling?

Elizabeth Warren and Barrack Obama - image ljworld

This is something to think about, in the 1980 and 1984 General Elections, Massachusetts, noted the most reliably blue state in the union - went deep red for Ronald Reagan. At that time (September 18, 1980) national polls had Carter and Reagan in a dead heat, in spite of a tanked economy and Carter’s major foreign policy fiasco with Iran (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) and by mid-October Carter had placed Massachusetts in the safe column(Boston Globe).

In 1984, once again the Mondale Campaign consider Massachusetts a “maybe” or “leaning toward Mondale” along with 39 other states based on polling! (Waycross Journal Herald, 10/13/84)

Therefore, it is not without some shock that polling firms are measuring President Obama’s favorability in the Bay State – and neighbors are talking - those programmed calls are reported to go no further if one suggests an unfavorable opinion of the President’s job performance, one is then asked demographic (male-female, age) and summarily thanked and disconnected. Reportedly, if one selects approval (see operation chaos), one is allegedly given the option to enter voters preference. It is odd, is it not, that Massachusetts would be polled at all –

Then again, may be no.

Speaking of polling: reports of the Warren Campaign going negative has hit the bricks -(See Boston Globe – Warren Releases Negative Ad) - and that includes reports of push-polling. Push-polling are phone calls made to voters homes (mostly partisan, Democrats, Independents) and basically lie like crazy about the opposition. Warren is said to be push polling Massachusetts. Apparently not all Democrats and Independent minded folk (the majority) are enamored of Warren and prefer Senator Brown.

The Hill has reported that the Dems are being cautious on Mass Race despite Warren’s Lead”

Of course she has a lead; Martha Coakley had a lead too! Of course, those leads are easy to manufacture if the pollster is selective and samples disproportionate geographic and voter trends.

Of course, there’s always trolling for votes in nursing homes (Personal experience, whereby Democrat operative was aiding my mother, who was in the end stages of Alzheimer, to vote for Al Gore – my mother, an independent, generally voted against my devoutly Democrat father, as a Republican – Needless to say, there were words, and the operative left.) The dead, the dying, and the non-existent are reported to vote in Massachusetts, and yet, Brown won by 5 points in 2009. One has to ask to what lengths the Warren Campaign will go. If they are push-polling, perhaps there aren’t enough dead and missing voters in MA to cover the deficit she actually faces. Perhaps she has internal polls. On the national polling stage, perhaps the Commonwealth that elected him Governor, will side with history and economics and foreign policy and hand the Massachusetts electoral votes to Romney –that’s a big perhaps, considering that Massachusetts never votes for a Republican, and has always been reliability Democrat and all seats, regardless of import, are shown year after year after year as – “safe Democrat”.

On Romney’s 47% remarks on a local scale: Although the media (including the morning and evening local affiliate news) are hammering Romney for the 47% of Obama supporters being dependent on the government, (Romney was speaking of campaign strategy and whom he would focus on during his campaign, which, is not lost on “the masses” – neither is the sentiment that is being portrayed) Apparently, those watching the newscasts are somewhat disgusted with the fact that Romney’s right and their local CBS, NBC affiliates are to use a phrase (So blind they cannot see the forest through the trees). Of course, this is relying on word of mouth, neighbor to neighbor - retirees, the unemployed, the employed but noticing their dollar goes nowhere, regular working class folks in the Bluest corner of the bluest state. The point being the mood has not shifted since 2009, in fact the mood is one that is more urgent in its animosity towards all things that appear to be pushing an “agenda”. Granted this may be a pocket of conservative and conservative leaning Democrats and Independents, but then again, do the 33 to 36% of the Massachusetts electorate that are registered Democrats (the balance are 11-12% Republican, 51% Unenrolleds (i.e. Independent) really win elections 100% of the time in Massachusetts when there is a better choice on the ballot?

Is Massachusetts in Play? – 1980 Revisited

Massachusetts as a Red State - Impossible! - On the 2008 electoral map, MA has been blue since the primaries – most probably because this particular state trends Democrat in most cases – the key here is most cases. What is noticeable to residents in this state is the sheer number of campaign commercials airing from both the Obama Campaign and the McCain campaign. One outside of the Bay State might think that this is the norm, however, most often, the Bay State is given little to no notice from either party. In 2004, commercials ran on most national networks, sporadically at best – 2008 is another ballgame. Perhaps it is easy to explain – both campaigns have ridiculous amounts of money to burn – therefore, the least competitive state is being treated like the rest of the country. That said, a recent series of articles in the Springfield Republican, the major daily in Western Massachusetts, is getting a good deal of attention. The basis of these articles is human interest mixed with politics, perspectives from ordinary people on why they chose a particular candidate. One woman’s story has resulted in a high comment count, perhaps the highest commented story on this site; it is not the woman’s reason for voting Obama that is in question, it is the comments that accompany the article. The woman who has chosen to vote for Obama is doing so for economic reasons; that said, she is someone who has needed assistance from the State for her entire adult life – it is evident that the message getting across to Bay Staters that the Obama tax plan is nothing more than additional hand-outs (to put it kindly), is working.

What about the polls? The state is considered safe due to two polls, one taken by Rasmussen and one by Suffolk University. The Suffolk Poll gives Obama a 19 point advantage over McCain. Suffolk University, a Boston based institution, has been conducting polls on its home turf as well as in states across the country, specifically in Nevada, Florida, Ohio and Missouri, Colorado and Virginia (Key States). The Massachusetts Poll, taken October 22, 2008, was based on a total of 400 registered voters (from Suffolk Marginals). 24% of those from Central (Worcester) MA and Western MA, the balance from the Eastern portion of the state with the heaviest concentration, 35%, from Boston North, 8% from Suffolk. The balance of Republican, Democrat and Independents (15%, 36% and 49% respectively, which is an approximate make-up of the electorate). Question 11 asks the respondents which of the six candidates on the ballot they would choose. Baldwin received 1%, Barr, 1%, McCain 31%, McKinny 1%, Nadar 3%, Obama 47%, Undecided 17% and Refused, 1%. 18% of the respondents either refused to answer or remain undecided – in Massachusetts, in a poll that is heavily skewed to Eastern Part of the State, which is where the highest concentration of Democrats reside. This schematic gives Obama a 16 point lead over McCain among likely voters, the subsequent question asked those Undecided on the 22 of October, which way they were leaning – which gave Obama an additional 3 points. Should 18% lean to McCain; according to his poll, Massachusetts’s 12 electoral votes would be added to his tally. Looking at this polling data, one could also consider Massachusetts to be – in play.

Why so many undecideds at this late date? Some possible and plausible reasons: 1) The State has been under control of one party for the past two years, prior to that, Massachusetts normally chose a Republican governor to offset the Democrat Legislature, with the result being a heavy burdened tax base, yet with a conservative advocate to alleviate some of the pain. Duval Patrick was elected based on hope, change, and “Yes We Can” – this message was an economic message, based on tax relief for the middle class and the fact that climate did not favor a Republican; this was the lead-up to the 2008 primary season. The reality: tax breaks for the middle class did not appear and the state budget went out of control; which is now resulting in budget cuts and bailouts from the Federal government (see comments on the article referred to in the first paragraph). Regardless of party affiliation, the Massachusetts fiasco can only be blamed on one group – there simply are no Republican’s (or a limited minority in the legislature) to blame. It is the perfect marriage, regardless of party, that can wreck perfect chaos in government. Lastly, there is a general dissatisfaction in the Democrat Base over John Kerry’s Iraq vote and his Endorsement of Obama over Clinton. John Kerry faced his first opponent from his own party in 24 years, handily defeating Ed O’Reilly by 61% - leaving 39% of the vote on the table. Support for Clinton in the Bay State remains high – would these voters go to McCain? - It is possible and probable

Although this is all speculation, (based on polling, higher commercials, and a climate that just does not bode well for entitlement programs), one cannot help but wonder if the Bay State will step back in time – to 1980. In 1980, Massachusetts was written off as “Safe” for Carter – food for thought. The balance of the polls across the nation are tightening, and, in these final days, one thing is certain, this will be a tight race – where it will be impossible to predict an outcome and anything can happen.