MA Senate Campaign – Media Spin: How to Turn a Mystery Into a Shaky Fact – Gomez PAC Support Not What It Appears

Of one thing one can be certain, if there is a smidgen of a name, or association, no matter how ridiculously far-fetched, it will be spun as a “fact” by the opposition and eventually wind up in an ad, or an article. The MA special election for the vacant Senate seat is one example: Ed Markey, the Democrat in the race, has had everyone show up except Ted Kennedy’s ghost – in an apparent effort to hang onto his base. Meanwhile, understanding just how bad it may be (even though he’s ahead in local polls, and in a dead heat in national polls), Markey’s fans are so concerned, that the issue of the opposition, Gabriel Gomez, the Republican in the race, may have a PAC supporting him that must have something wrong with it. Never mind the fact that Markey has had PAC’s throwing more money at Massachusetts than the state’s deficit – that apparently receives a pass.

The gist: From Politico - Headlined: ” Mystery PAC backing Gabriel Gomez in Massachusetts”, speaks to the fact that the Gomez campaign is receiving a bit of help from an outside source, and Politico cannot, with all of its ability, find out whence this PAC came from. The one thing they have gleaned from the PAC is that it appears not to have an affiliation, but a Republican firm is buying the ads on the PAC’s behalf – the button pusher: And the group’s treasurer, Nancy Watkins, is a Republican who has worked for a number of outside groups, according to past news accounts. She also served as treasurer for Michele Bachmann’s presidential campaign.”

Suddenly an article appears on the Hill Blog: and this significant ad by in Massachusetts for the Republican, Gomez, is being handled by Michele Bachmann.

Michelle Bachman, recently announced her retirement from Congress, and is, in the eyes of the media, a crazy congresswoman who embraced the “Tea Party”. If one is following the gist – simply put, the Dems that be, are desperate to find anything to discredit Gomez, therefore, watch Gomez get slammed for being supported by and a member of those Tea Party Groups!!

This is not a stretch of the imagination – given the poorly constructed ads which the Markey campaign has airing, badly spliced segments of Gomez speaking, attempting to discredit him on the issue of social security, gun control and the like.

Gomez shot back with an ad that’s sort of hilarious – knocking the attack ad, and possibly just as badly produced in straight satirical form.

Perhaps, just perhaps, those living in the state of Confusion might see through the absolutely nonsense that is this campaign and choose for themselves – rather than play into the old tried and true of an entrenched Congressman from MA looking for a lifelong seat. His primary opponent, Lynch, would have been a better choice, but those crazy progressive, want a pure party player, so Massachusetts gets – Markey

Maybe

Which is why this is getting so childish – it’s almost as if no-one wants to even get out and vote for Ed – it’s embarrassing.

One has to ask, does it really matter who is sending all that cash into MA, be it one of Markey's many PAC supporters, or individual party players, or Gomez' PAC and/or any Republican or Independent PAC or person who is supporting him - as this PAC is from Miami, where, one might imagine there would be more than a few Latino-Hispanic individuals who support Latino candidates (see Marc Rubio), then, one might imagine that is where the money is coming from.

Election 2010 - Massachusetts - How Many Long Held Democrat Congressional Seats will be Held by Republicans come November?

There is a change in the political think of the voters in the Bay State, and as stated before, this was in evidence prior to Scott Brown’s run at the Senate. Once that run was successful, those districts that had one or two Republicans who had stepped forward to run for Congress suddenly had multiple candidates vying for primary win. In addition, where there had been no opposition previously, opposition did develop. The question one has to ask is how viable are those “predictions of Massachusetts, deeply entrenched, Democrats being defeated in November?” or for that matter, all districts as “Safe Democrat” – In reality, there are several seats where it is more than possible, and heading towards highly probable that they are in play – this based on limited access to internal polls, as well as a general angst of the people in the Commonwealth over the Party in Power. Although there has been this type of voter emotion before, which allowed Ronald Regan to claim the Bay State twice, one has to understand the Congressional and Senate seats remained in the hands of the Democrats.

What has changed? Several points to consider: this is a mid-term not a general election where the focus is more on the Presidential candidates than on those running for Congress, the aforementioned angst which is fueled by high deficits, and unemployment, as well as a “brand” gone bad – sets the stage for an electorate that is ready to try something different. (Which has happened, although, admittedly rarely.)

The make-up of the Bay State’s electorate is considered in the equation as the majority of the electorate is “unenrolleds” (50 plus percent), and although the Republican Party in Massachustts has the lowest registration of the two major parties, it is being now being boosted by those Green Party, Libertarian and unenrolleds and yes, Scott Brown Democrats, who, as national polls indicate, are not buying slogans.

Lacking any public polling, which may or may not take place until after the September 14, primary, it is difficult to call a specific race, but one can, based on the aforementioned, make a prediction.
Over at Wicked Local (Gatehouse Media) a guest op-ed piece by Robert E. Kelly opines that “Single Party Reign Could End in Massachustts. Mr. Kelly then goes on to rate which districts he feels are in jeopardy – basing his predictions on the outcome of the Brown/Coakley Senate Race, and including the caveat that that voter angst must stay the same to see these predictions come to fruition.

If anything, as of this writing, Massachusetts voters are more a) interested in politics earlier in the game, and especially who is running against whom, and b) the angst is increasing daily. To read the entire article visit: Wicked Local, Swansea News Opinions

Mr. Kelley’s Predictions with this blogs comments:

On District 1, Mr. Kelly feels this may be in play – a point where this blog departs. The reasoning, that district (using Mr. Kelly’s model) was 99.9% for Coakley against Brown, and Congressman Olver is Massachusetts version of Robert Byrd. Is it possible, yes, anything is possible, but probable? Unless there is a huge turn in voter angst (pitchfork level), the Challenger, one William Gunn, will have his work cut out for him.
District 2- Incumbent Richard Neal as vulnerable – this is agreed. Neal is extremely vulnerable – to the point where he has called in Bill Clinton to stump for him in the districts largest population centers: Chicopee and Springfield, where Neal has the biggest problems. Odds are on the winner of the Republican Primary to go to Washington – This district should be polled come October 1st.

District 3 – McGovern – agreed also endangered – Worcester Country has become somewhat of a red streak in the Middle of the blue Bay State for the past few election cycles. This District should be polled.

District 4 – Although incumbent Barney Frank is probably the most high profile target of the angst felt in the Bay State and elsewhere, within his own district, he has the distinction of being likeable – at least up until this year. In order for a challenger to unseat Barney – whichever Republican emerges from the Primary must have a) scads of cash to counter Frank, and boots on the ground, specifically in the larger population centers where the ground game needs to be focused.
What makes this race interesting is that there does exists a schism in the Democrat Party itself, where Rachael Brown is running against Frank, coupled with rumors of Frank’s retirement. Therefore, this district is one where anything can happen, and it makes for extreme political entertainment. Frank can be bested, by a Republican but the effort will have to be herculean – and then, it may not be Frank rather a Democrat by the name of Rachel Brown facing the Republican in November - Until the primary – this is anyone’s best guess.

District 5- Niki Tsongas – agreed – this district is in play, District 6 – Agreed Safe (for now), District 7 – Markey is one of the powerful players in this Democrat Congressional Delegation– somewhat possible, but not probable. District 8 – Stephen Lynch – disagree with the assessment – Lynch is safer than most and District 9 – Capuano – running virtually unopposed – safe. Finally, District 10 – Free-for-All, seat will go to a Republican – agreed.

Therefore, although looking at these races, sans national polling data, but based on voter angst, electorate make-up and (in the case of Mr. Kelly) the Brown-Coakley outcome) one can get a better picture of the Commonwealth’s political make-up and possible representation after the November 4th mid-term. In any event, the Commonwealth should be one of the more interesting states to watch in October, as several of these races are definitely in play.




MA Congressional District Predictions As of August, 2010 - (This is illustrative - understanding blogger has no graphic skills)