Mass. GOP – First, Brown Drops out, then Tisei –Now, focus is on Ann Romney for possible Senate Run - Ann Romney would give MA Dem’s Pause.

Shortly before the 2012 Election - Ann Romney - Ohio - image from Daily Mail.com - "As Election Day Nears Romney Crowds Surging"

Prior to February 1st, every pundit following the special election to replace Senior U.S. Senator, John Kerry, (R-MA), (now Secretary of State) suggested, with some confidence that the GOP’s, Scott Brown would run for the vacant seat. On Friday, February 1st, 2013, Brown declined the option to run in that particular race. (New York Times) This “shocked” more than a few individuals, except that Brown gave no indication that he would run for the seat – rather he was vague in terms of what he would do as far as his political career was concerned. It was the “sources close to (plug in a name), that made Brown’s run “likely” (“true”). In the interim, in Massachusetts there was a special election to for the GOP Committee Chair. Certain individuals within and outside the MA State GOP, were also convinced that Brown would run, given the fact that he endorsed the candidate that won the chairKristen Hughes, a former Brown campaign staffer”(Degrees).

Next up, there was again, a source that suggested Richard Tisei, the Massachustts Senate Minority Leader, would run for the seat. Not so: in a statement released last night, Tisie released the following statement:

“Former State Senate Minority Leader Richard Tisei has decided against running in the upcoming special election for the U.S. Senate seat just vacated by Senator John F. Kerry. Following is his statement:

"I've been humbled by so many people who've urged me to run for this seat, following Senator Scott Brown's decision not to run on Friday. I believe it's imperative that the Republican party put forward a strong candidate who can help bring much-needed change to Washington. Unfortunately, the timing is simply not right for me to do so - deeply as I feel about the need to strongly compete in this election. It was also my desire to make this decision as quickly as possible so that other potential candidates would be able to consider whether they should run.

We have many talented people from all walks of life who should get involved in the political system to bring about change. The political class ought not be a select few. That's part of the reason that we're in such a mess and that our political system has become dysfunctional. I urge principled, qualified men and women to stand up and be counted in the political arena. We have no right to complain if we're not willing to be constructively involved as we try to build a better future. I've met thousands and thousands of people who do care and have been involved and I urge them to stay involved and to continue to make a difference - especially in these difficult times.

I look forward to continuing my involvement and to supporting strong, principled, independent-minded candidates who may choose to run for this and other offices. All of us - Republicans, Independents, and Democrats - need to roll up our sleeves, pitch in, and bring about the reforms of our political system that are so desperately needed. Whether as a candidate or concerned citizen, I will continue to be involved with other men and women of integrity who share my desire for real reforms."

There are several names that are high on the list in the MA GOP when it comes to running for higher office: Brown, of course, (he’s out), Richard Tisei (he’s out), Charlie Baker (more likely a run for Governor), and Kerry Healey, former Lt. Govenor under Mitt Romney, come to mind. However, it is anyone’s guess as to who may run against Democrat Faithful, Ed Markey, and Moderate Democrat, Stephen Lynch, both MA Congressional representatives, who have publicly declared to the vacant Senate seat. To date, those are the two that will face a primary in April, 2013.

Yesterday, enter the latest “sources close to” potential candidate to run for the Senate special election: Ann Romney.(Daily Mail) In the article from the Daily Mail it is noted that “Republicans in Massachusetts are said to be encouraging Ann Romney to run for U.S. Senate.”. Said sources from the UK was followed by a similar article in the Boston Herald. Both papers stating that the MA GOP is desperately trying to find someone to run for the seat. Unless of course, there is someone who has already decided, and yet not one “source close to” has said “boo”.

Ann Romney as a candidate makes sense. There are those spouting “no political experience” – (Note: Ann Romney has personally given no indication that she will run for any office as of now- this is hypothetical based on “sources”.) However, given the fact that Massachusetts has recently elected, Elizabeth Warren, former part-time Harvard Professor, and one-time Obama appointee to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau”(Daily Beast) had little experience in politics, and Matriarch of the Democrat Congressional Caucus, Nancy Pelosi, was a full time wife and grandmother before running for Congress – a criteria for “experience” seems a tad misplaced. Never mind the fact that the whole point of Federal offices historically speaking, is that a “citizen” be elected.

So, what “dots” can the MSM connect, besides the usual “source”, that Ann Romney maybe considering a run for the U.S. Senate?

Perhaps it’s the fact that she declined an offer from ”Dancing with the Stars”(USA Today). Alternately, it could be the fact that she is considered a “star” by U.S. entertainment standards – which apparently is part of the criteria for elected officials (besides all that “experience”).

Unless and until, Ann Romney speaks, (or a representative for Ann Romney), no one has a clue.

The Big But

If Ann Romney does decide to run, it would give fits to the Mass State DNC. They are most likely hoping that the only contest will be in a Dem Primary. Should a high-profile, Bay State Republican run, someone with a brand name, then that’s problematic. Special elections have notoriously low turnout, and the independent’s (51% of the Bay State’s electorate) have been known in the past go choose a Republican (more often the Governor’s office, but…) now and again. If she were to run, Ann Romney is likeable (unless one is a screaming and threatened progressive.); she would bring “brand” as well as “star-power” to the race. Pit Ann Romney against lackluster, Congressional Democrats such as Markey and Lynch, and one gets the picture. The discussion regarding a campaign war-chest would be a moot point, all things considered. It would not take much capital to outdo either Markey or Lynch, as they would have to push more advertising in a statewide race for minimal voters, against someone who really has little need for recognition.

How well does Ann Romney poll? –That’s the million dollar question, given the only poll found was a Washington Post/ABC Polls whichpolled Ann Romney and Michelle Obama Romney against their husbands. In that poll, both women held an advantage. However, in the notes, on nationwide approval, Ann Romney’s favorability rose from 43% to 56% once “voters became familiar with her”

Of course, that’s all there is, at the present time, speculation. What is known that should Ann Romney decide to run, she would be a tough candidate for the MA DNC to best – she was far better at connecting with voters than her husband, she’s go the same amount of experience as did Nancy Pelosi or more perhaps than Elizabeth Warren, she has “star-power” and she just came off a grueling national campaign – she knows the ropes.

In the event that there is no candidate, one might want to change one’s MA political affiliation t o Democrat, vote in the primary and vote for Stephen Lynch, as Lynch is the lesser of two evils.

If Ann Romney or Charlie Baker (who, again bet’s are on the Governor’s office), run, then, the choice is obvious – change party affixation to Republican or remain “unenrolled”, (again, in the event there is no opposition to the candidate in a primary, then one must declare a party) and vote for either Ann Romney or Charlie Baker, or someone who has Statewide Recognition, which is the quantifier in this race.

It is, in reality, still early – the filing date is set for February 27th, when the candidate must submit nomination papers and signatures to the Secretary of State, signatures required: a measley 10,000 for a Federal Senate office election(Massachusetts Secretary of Sate).

Is there another GOP candidate that must live in the State at the time of the election (see Lizzie Warren - Oklahoma) ?

Massachusetts Politics: Special Election – Stephen Lynch (D-MA) Jumps In – No Republican Candidate, Mass GOP – New Chair to Be Elected Today

Politics, in the two-party system - image bostino blog

From The Boston Globe Congressional Representative, Stephen Lynch, announced his candidacy to fill the Senate Seat being vacated by John Kerry, now Secretary of State. The other announced candidate is Democrat Ed. Markey, another one of the nine Congressional representatives in the Commonwealth. Lynch, is possibly a moderate, who had a faced primary challengers from progressive Democrats in the past, and has been noted by the Blog “Buzzfeed” as being “too Conservative” for Massachusetts Lynch is pro-life, voted against the Iraq War and the Obama Health Care Reform Act.

The primary is set for April, 2013 with a special election to follow in June. Markey is favored by the DNC, as a strictly reliable vote, neither man is well known outside of their own districts.

Markey has a site up Ed Markey.org To date, none found for Lynch.

Should no Republican enter the race, Lynch should be given a second look as a moderate. That said Lynch will be with former Senator and newly appointed Secretary of State John Kerry today in Western Mass. The association with Kerry may give those more conservative voters pause.

Meanwhile, the Massachusetts GOP will elect a new chair today. The candidates are Kirstin Hughes and Rick Green. The 80 member Mass COP Committee members will make the selection. As of the 30th of January there was a 1 point difference in Committee endorsements per candidate with Green leading by 1. (Red Mass Group). Green is a fiscal conservative appealing to both moderates as well as the more right wing members of the Mass GOP (keep Mass GOP in mind) – Kirstin Hughes is a GOP stalwart, having worked on Scott Browns campaign. It remains to be seen if the clout of the Boston GOP’s members supporting Hughes will be enough to win the Chair for her against Green. The Mass GOP Chair Election with profiles is available hereat this blog – updated December 12th. At that time, Green was the favorite, again based on party unity.

Mass GOP Chair – Contest Update: Running for the Seat: Kristen Hughes, the Duo: Dean Cavaretta and David D'Arcangelo and Rick Green, Fiscal Conservative holds early lead.

The Massachusetts GOP Logo - from newtonrepublicans.org

The Mass GOP Chair is up for grabs in Massachusetts – which may be the most lackluster State GOP in the nation. The fact that there actually are conservatives in the Commonwealth, in varying degrees ranging from Moderate Republican’s to no-holds-barred, unforgiving –Social Conservatives, to those Democrats who remember what it meant to be a Democrat before the Progressives decided to make it their “Party”, and the Libertarians together make up enough of the electorate to push a candidate in any race over the top. The problem is the lack of cohesive ground-game and the inertia on the part of the few “troops” that are available.

Those Pointing to former State Senator and now former Senator Scott Brown’s win in 2010, as proof, is a bit disingenuous, as those manning the phones for Brown, and walking door to door, were not rank and file GOP members, they were the aforementioned Democrats (who are tops in organizational skills), along with Green Party, Libertarian’s and those Tea Party members. That was the group that brought Scott Brown the win. After the Special Election, Brown went on one of those “thank you” tours, and it was remarked, repeatedly, that one could tell the GOP regulars jockeying for position in a crowded room full of real supporters, or those who were in the trenches helping to elect Brown.

The State Chairman, whoever ascends to the least of the GOP Chairs, will have their hands full in trying to get anything done in this state, unless of course, they are some sort of activist who is so politically astute and connected that they can hand out favors to the “country-club” set at the same time. There is the regional split to deal with as well, Western Massachusetts, as one might not be aware is a hotbed of political rights, and by right, it is right wing, and not giving an inch – unless of course, the candidate is Calvin Coolidge reborn – maybe. On the other side, they have the country-club GOP set to deal with – those are the dinners and golf outings that are thrown by the “leadership” which can only appeal to fundraisers, an important aspect, except it does nothing to build a base – which said base is now at 11.5% of the State’s electorate (as of 10/17/12) . According to the Secretary of State’s office, the following is a snapshot of party enrollment in the state: 4,342,841 total registered voters: 1,551,693 of these are Democrats, 484,099 of these are Republicans, 6,507 are either Green or Rainbow Party, 17,269 of these are political designations of none of the aforementioned and a whopping 2,283,273 refused to be indented by a political party.

In the 2012 Elections there was a total vote cast of 3,184,196 in the top race for the Presidency and the Senate Race between Brown and Warren, 1,188,314 votes were cast for Romney, with 1,921,290 votes cast for Obama, and there were 1,458,048 votes cast for Scott Brown, while Warren received: 1,696,346 votes. (Secretary of State’s office). There were roughly, one million votes left on the table, and a lack of coherent messaging from a unified GOP to bring them to the right side. (Of course, those 1 million extra votes could be the dead or missing voters on the rolls).

This is the challenge that any GOP Chair would face – the ability to lead the country club set and the Conservative groups to the table, to some sort of agreement on organizing the Grass Roots, from the precinct level upwards. It’s Herculean in scope, and it’s going to take more than a few years to accomplish, unless – the individual (or individuals) as the case may be, has the ability to keep both sides in check and go in waist deep into the trenches – there is fertile ground for conservatives in Massachusetts, and for Republican’s – the problem is – no one knows they are there!!

Therefore: to Introduce the candidates that can try and drag the GOP in Massachusetts up from the netherworld:

From RedMassGroup.com (The Mass. Republican Activist Website):

The Statement of Candidacy of Kristen Hughes – also endorsed by Scott Brown for this position.

the Proposed organizational structure of a dual Chair by Cavaretta and D'Arcandelo (not a bad idea)

Rick Green, who appeals to both moderates and hardliner conservatives (the light bulb is on!).

The Candidates websites: Rick Green for Mass GOP Chair

Kristen Hughes for Mass GOP Chair

And the Duo - The New Mass Playbook, site for Cavaretta and D’Arcandelo for Mass GOP Chair.

The race for the GOP chair will also give an indication of who might better take advantage of the Tea Party (yes, that Tea Party), in Massachusetts. Those who are active on some many levels, especially inside politics, and inside the Mass GOP (and also, no kidding the Mass DNC), - Rick Green is the Chair of the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance, which would go a long way towards getting those who would work for a GOP leader, to work for the Mass GOP in earnest.

The Mass GOP chair election takes place in January 2013.

Massachusetts GOP Chair Candidates – Scott Brown Endorses Kirsten Hughes for MA GOP Chair – The Right of the Mass. GOP Balks.

Yes, there is a Mass GOP (for those who might think otherwise) - Logo from newtonrepublicans.org

There has been some disconnect between the Mass State GOP and certain factions within the Massachusetts Republican Party – in brief, there are those that are moderates framing the majority of the leadership, and those that are both fiscally and socially conservative. The later would encompass Tea Part Groups, the Mass. Assembly, and the Mass. Fiscal Alliance. Those to the right of moderate take an all or nothing position on social issues encompassing the Right to Life movement and the issue of Gay Marriage. The general consensus of supporting a candidate that is both pro-choice and pro-gay marriage sees these conservatives sit out an election, or work for local and state candidates that hold core beliefs. Then there are the moderates of the party, which is the majority of the State GOP Leadership. These are Republican’s that are more moderate on social issues, yet add balance when it comes to be fiscal conservatives. These are the Moderates, who are more electable (or thought to be) in Massachusetts.

The problem arises when there is a tight race between a Republican and a Democrat in Massachusetts, and the Republican runs to the left of the Democrat and/or tries to compete toe to toe on social issues – that candidate loses the right of the party. Therefore, the incoming Chair of the Mass. GOP must know how to include both sides of the party – both the cocktail set (what is seen as the leadership) and those who see themselves as in the trenches.

Together these two factions can do the impossible, elect a Republican to a Federal or State office. Should that not occur, then there will be loses. There is the manpower that comes with the ability to bring both sides to the table. Unfortunately, some in leadership roles tend to focus on the cash, and distance themselves from those on what is perceived as the “extreme right”. This is Massachusetts – where 51% of the registered voters are “unenrolled” or have no leaning towards one party or another. They are, for the most part, moderates – not taking a hard line one way or the other on social issues. There are also those who are disgusted with one party or the other, yet still tend to vote with either major party, unless there is an alternative.

The obvious frontrunner will be Kirsten Hughes who announced her candidacy for the Mass GOP Chair – she has been endorsed by Senator Scott Brown, and had been his campaign’s deputy finance director. (Boston Globe) The Boston Globe implies that the move by Brown to endorse Hughes , and promote her Chairmanship, gives him a cash advantage should he run for either a Senate Seat (Kerry) or the Governor’s office. Although one might look at Brown as the consummate politico, he is inclined to work towards both his own political future as well as the future of the GOP in Massachusetts, with a focus on bring more Republican’s into the fold and into elected office. One only has to go back to 2010 to know that he worked for his own interests as well as the interests of the State GOP. Ms. Hughes has an exemplary record with the State GOP in a short period of time, having worked in 2010 towards bringing more state seats to the GOP. To learn more about Kirstin Hughes visit www.hughesforchair.com.

For insight into the diversity of the Mass. GOP, visit Red Mass Group, for reaction on Ms.Hughes Letter of Candidacy.

To date there is one other single candidate that has announced, Richard Green, a member of the State Committee, who is also the founder of the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance.

Other candidates who have announced an intent to run for Chair are Rachel Kemp, a state committee member from Dorchester, announced her candidacy Thursday, as did ¬David D'Arcangelo, a Malden city councilor, and Dean ¬Cavaretta of Acton, who are running as a team, according to Brock Corderio a State Committee Member.

Smart money would be on Kirsten Hughes. She has the endorsement of Brown, she had successfully worked in increasing state elected officials in 2010, has the ability to be a prolific fundraiser (See Boston Globe article ”Scott Brown endorses campaign aide’s bid to run state Republican Party”) – the plus – she is a competent woman in the GOP camp. The State GOP election will be held in January of 2013 – date is TBA.