Obama To Hit Campaign Trail – Universities in VA and OH, Romney On The Trail in OH – Also Speaking at University - Battle of the Professor vs. A CEO

Romney Speaking at Lawrence University Students Line Up to Hear Romney Speak - Obama Enters the Twilight Zone - image Appleton Post Crescent

From the Boston Globe: President Obama will officially kick of his 2012 re-election campaign on May 5th at two University rally’s, one in Virginia and one in Ohio Best line from the Globe: “Not that Obama hasn’t been campaigning for months.”

Obama has earned the moniker Campainger in Chief from the media, Ann Arbor.com’s headline: “Campaigner in chief: Obama address to Ann Arbor crowd sounded like stump speech”suggests that the President’s tone is more about his re-election and less like a “speech designed to “move Congress,” not his standing in the polls”, as suggested by his Campaign Manager, David Axelrod (Boston Globe)

When the administration is transparent, they deny it – go figure.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney will be campaigning with Governor John Kasich in Ohio Romney's campaign announced Wednesday afternoon that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee and Kasich will hold a 2 p.m. meeting with graduating seniors at Otterbein University in Westerville.(Cleveland.com).

Now, as to style, the President holds a rally, and Romney holds a meeting – while one is looking to rouse up a crowd, the other is seeking input from the crowd – The President is big on “forgiveness of student loans”, while Romney will most likely speak to the same theme, yet include something about opportunities, and putting that education to good use – by working in one’s chosen field. The two could not provide a sharper contrast in a Campus setting – as the youth vote seems to be the target.

Which brings up a question, just how interested are the “youth” in this election and in Obama’s re-election in particular? Apparently, the enthusiasm from 2008 has “waned” a bit according to the News Observer (Raleigh, NC) although the youth vote in North Carolina still favors the President, they are not all that excited about him – he’s lost his “aura” one student noted in the article. – And that’s Raleigh, NC, where the President is expected to do well.

Overall the “youth vote” was at 9% in the 2010 midterm elections, and in 2008, the Youth Vote, gained 1% over the 2004 elections, for a stunning 18% of the total vote, (up from 17% in 2004) (study of voter patterns from 1960 through 2008 from Nonprofitvote.org.
The study also concludes the Youth vote splits party affiliation, and in viewing the statistics by year, one can see a pattern emerge, economics drive the youth vote.
Suddenly Mitt Romney is looking like a Rock Star.

Obama does have that “get to see a sitting President and get out of class by attending a rally advantage”, however, one has ask: if the youth vote are disenfranchised with Obama (except for the student loan forgiveness effort aimed specifically at the youth vote), a percentage of those students might prefer to put their education to good use, rather than say, have their loan forgiven. As Romney will be speaking in terms of education equals a future with a job and sufficient salary to leave Mom’s house and get a real job that might make the difference as to who gets the vote.

One would think that the youth vote is of some import, and while both candidates are on the stump (one who may have a bit of difficulty running on his economic record, and the other, campaigning on his record of financial successes, the other demographics to consider are the people that have jobs, and those that don’t.
A final note highlighting the ridiculous comment, made by a Congressional Democrat, via Real Clear Politics: “The Unemployed will vote for Obama to Keep their benefits.” One would think that those who are receiving “taxable” unemployment benefits, would much prefer to have a job, rather than collect a check that does not reflect their potential earnings. It is the divide between the Democrat Party thought, and in the aforementioned case “speak” that all American’s prefer to get their money from the government, while – Romney is out there campaigning for individual freedoms and the ability to make one’s own cash, with the only government interference being taxes, not limits on how much one can collect from the government.

Although it is true, the education system in this nation, run by Progressives, has been dummying down the electorate since the 1970’s, turning them into the “masses” that would be sheep – yet, sheep revolt when they are hopeless, and see no future, until some old white guy, comes along saying: “Look I made Millions, you can too – all without the help of the Federal government.” – Romney just may end up being the pied piper of prosperity. Then again, if the youth vote holds true to Progressive tenants, then Obama just may end up with 17% of the vote.

Obama Campaign 2012 – Plans to GO Negative Attacks on Opposition – Gallup: Obama approval holding steady in 40’s – Swing State Indicators - Unelectabl

The President in dangerous poll waters, - going negative may be the final straw - image: Chicago Defender

The Conservative Pollster (as in “careful” not a “political affiliation):Gallup shown the President’s approval rating hanging under 50% by a margin of eight points (as of November 5, 2011), in fact, the President has had a hard time breaking 50% and holding that “high” since March of 2010. This indicates that the electorate, who are said in most media reports to “support the President” – do not, by over 50%. Going into 2012, should schematic remain unchanged, then the President’s chances of reelection remain nil.

Moreover, his national job approval aside , a poll focusing on the key swing states paints a similar story – a USA/Gallup Poll indicates that Obama is losing twelve key swing states to a “generic republican” and statistically tied with Mitt Romney. The twelve states are: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and oddly, New Hampshire. New Hampshire was one of the few New England states that flipped the entire state, from the Governor, to the legislature and Federal offices from Democrat to Republican in 2010.


Gallup USA Today Poll Key Swing States - image USA Todaydotcom - click to enlarge

The States in this poll showing strong to weak Democrat are: Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Illinois, New York, Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Delaware are Rhode Island and HI. The hypothetical map of Electoral College votes shown below indicates that without those fourteen states turning towards Obama in the 2012 general, he will lose the Presidency. That said, state by state approval ratings for the President indicate problems in other states listed as, for lack of better terminology, “safe Democrat”, and in the last state by state match-up of job approval by Gallup only 10 states gave the President an approval over 50% - It goes without saying the word in this analysis by USA today is strongly “hypothetical”. Simply put, it does not add up – specifically when one looks at the satisfaction segment of the poll, focused on those “swing states”, making a sweep of more than ten states overall, highly unlikely. (See graphic from USA Today below)


Overall Satisfaction in "swing states" Low - image from USA Today dot com - click to enlarge

Finally, as if the numbers, as kind as they appear to be, are not enough, Politico is reporting that Obama’s campaign plans to go negative – and he plans to remain “clean” when it attacks opponents. Nice try, when one is speaking to the Occupy base, however, a plethora of negative ads coming out of the Obama Campaign, regardless of how “distanced” the President appears, will, in this atmosphere, lose any remaining independent voters, primarily leaving him with the base (which at this point in time, is not overly thrilled with the man, but would – in a match-up vote party line.). The base, the core Progressive Democrat base, makes up approximately 30% of the electorate on any given day - (based on identifier polling of political ideology and affiliation available at Gallup).

Negative advertising, regardless of party and or intent, from the local to the national stage, does little but attach itself to the unintended party –the individual seen as behind the ad. In the Politico piece, the author describes Obama’s negative style as one of making a “joke” of it, to his base, who responds favorably. That has to be the understatement of the year, and in addition, after looking at the most generous of scenarios (the swing states versus the balance of the data), it also smacks of denial.