John Kerry Senate Seat - Unsafe

The Massachusetts State Primary will be held on Tuesday, September 16 – voters that do go to the polls (low voter turnout expected) will choose between incumbent John F. Kerry and Ed O’Reilly, who has run, what many feel, is a successful grassroots campaign. A debate between the two candidates, that was originally broadcast on WBZ TV Boston, was shown on TV 38 (available statewide) as of yesterday – too little too late to impact a race? That depends a great deal on the independent and democrat electorate.

It is generally determined that John Kerry’s seat is “safe” in the general election based upon polls taken at the beginning of August. One poll left out of that analysis is the Suffolk University Poll that suggested over 50% of the state electorate feels that Mr. Kerry should not be rehired. Although it has been mentioned that yard signs are hardly an indicator of which way the election will go –Ed O’Reilly signs are in yards and along roadways in Massachusetts – in large numbers. Further, Mr. O’Reilly has been endorsed by several of the Bay States newspapers, including the Goucester Daily Times (Note: that is hardley the Boston Globe).

What remains to be seen is if those Clinton Supporters are still holding a grudge against Kerry for endorsing Obama early and ignoring the Bay state Democrats who overwhelmingly supported Clinton. What are the odds that O’Reilly will be running against Republican candidate Jeff Beatty in November? 60/40 would be the best estimate. Here's why the challenger is favored - should voter turn-out be low the incumbent may not survive the primary. If this is a popularity contest, as so many of the US elections have become, then Kerry, is in big trouble. Also, consider that the media has given O’Reilly access to both print and local television (granted sometimes limited to the Web) giving voters a chance to meet Mr. O'Reilly – therfore, democrats know who Ed O’Reilly is, and who he is running against. Local Western Mass. NBC Station, interview with both candidates: here.
Prediction: O’Reilly will emerge as the challenger to Republican, Jeff Beatty in November’s race for the Massachusetts senate seat formerly held by John Kerry.

Addendum 9-16-08: Re: Voter Turnout - As of 7:35 a total of 7 women had voted in my precinct. On February 6th by that same time: 302 people had voted. One had to admire the PUMA stickers, the women with their daughters and the smile when I menioned a low turnout were priceless. (Western Mass). From Eastern Mass, the report is similar.

John Kerry – The Poor Sport - The Debate for MA Senate Seat.

John Kerry agreed to debate Ed O’Reilly, the first primary challenger the man has faced, but not without some guidelines. The debate, scheduled to be televised this Sunday at 7 AM on WBZ TV 4 Boston, is being moderated by John Keller, who set the conditions of the debate. The debate is being pre-recorded – no one is allowed to attend the event with the exception of the candidates. This is the only style of debate John Kerry would agree. The O'Reilly campaign called for additional debates which allowed for voter participation. Apparently, Kerry wants to ensure that no-one in the Bay state sees this debate, for good reason.

Although he is shown leading in polls taken at the beginning of August against the Republican challenger, Jeff Beatty, there have been no polls taken showing an O’Reilly – Kerry match. Kerry’s approval rating, according to a Suffolk University poll taken in June, is dismal – 51% of the respondents indicated that Kerry needs to relinquish his seat.

Ed O'Reilly: "I call upon Senator Kerry to enter debates that are open to the public and where ordinary people can ask questions. Democracy and the election process is meant to be inclusive and not exclusive."

Further, O’Reilly touched on the fact that, once again, Kerry has neglected Western Massachusetts. That particular station can only be seen in Eastern Massachusetts, leaving Western Massachusetts Democrats and Independents out. Kerry has displayed his usual antipathy towards his constituents. One would be hard-pressed to find many John Kerry yard signs, bumper stickers or roadside rallies around the state – however, the same cannot be said of Ed O’Reilly. With the increased mistrust of “government as usual” by the voters - Kerry’s seat may not be entirely safe, and like the people of Massachusetts, should not be taken for granted.

John Kerry’s – Using Veterans for Political Gain?

Jeff Beatty, Republican Candidate for US Senate recently chastised incumbent John Kerry for his use of veterans as props for his political ambitions. Kerry’s spokesperson, Brigid O’Rourke, complained to the Globe that Beatty was using “Karl Rove” tactics, (Note: Apparently, the Kerry Campaign is concerned with the general election if this comparison is being drawn prior to the primary.) (Boston Globe article)


The Blog PolitikerMA.com initially reported on Beatty’s beef with Kerry’s use of veterans. Interestingly, the blog cited Thomas Dumm, a political scientist at Amherst College, as an expert. This in an obvious attempt to portray Beatty as the opportunist. According to the FEC Dumm has made substantial contributions to Senator Kerry’s Campaign, making his criticism of Beatty's stance somewhat suspect.

Having briefly met Jeff Beatty at an event in Chicopee, MA, (Beatty threw out the first pitch in an American Legion Championship game. The American Legion is a Veteran's organization), and having the opportunity to watch him interact with the crowd, most of whom were veterans, it appeared to be less of a campaign stop and more of a tribute to those who served. Who’s Fooling Who here?

While John Kerry steadfastly refuses to reveal his military records, Beatty has them proudly on display at his website – and as each poll is released Beatty’s numbers continue to improve. Ms. O’Rourke will most likely be comparing Jeff Beatty to George Bush next – invalid comparisons, lacking substance and merit, are what the Kerry campaign has given to date. Additionally, Blogs like PolitickerMA (owned by Observer Media) will continue to cite experts that, in all likelihood, have ties to the Senator. Are the people fooled? Not exactly. Is it any wonder that now when one Google’s John Kerry Mass. Senate Race, two names repeatedly appear in every single Bay State Newspaper Article - his opponents, and the words: “if” followed by John Kerry wins the primary.

In the interest of full disclosure, this blog is conservative feminist viewpoint and commentary on news items – that said, the author has been known to vote both sides of the aisle based upon job performance. Although Ed O’Reilly, John Kerry’s primary challenger holds some ideals that are not compatible to this blog, he is given fair treatment due to his background (non-elitist), a passionate approach to the campaign, as well as his unwavering stance on issues that may or may not be popular with all voters. In what we have seen so far, he appears to have the interests of his State and his Party in the right order - In other words, he is the ideal candidate for the Massachusetts Democratic Party.