Obama and Romney Campaigns on the Road – Romney and Ryan’s Crowd Size Matters – DNC/Obama Campaign in Damage Control

Paul Ryan at the Iowa State Fair Draws Thousands - Image Des Moines Register


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President Obama at Iowa State Fair same source - Image Des Moines Register

Crowds at political events have become a focus over the past four years – the Crowds that came out for Barack Obama in 2008 at college campuses and packed stadiums were presented as proof of his popularity. When Sarah Palin was first announced as V.P., the crowds that appeared were overwhelming, boosting an anemic McCain campaign, and the focus on Palin, rather than McCain continued through November. The fact that McCain was an underwhelming candidate was never mentioned on either “side” of the aisle – rather his choice of Palin (portrayed as less than brilliant – politely put) and the McCain-Bush connection was repeated, ad nausem, by the media and the Obama Campaign. The result of a nation tired of wars, an unpopular (at that time) President who has maxed out his term, coupled with a Democrat candidate who had historically high funds in hand, through corporate, “Hollywood” and individual donations, were all indicators of an Obama win in 08. Pictures of crowds were consistently used by the Obama Campaign and the media to “prove” popularity. A picture, as it is noted, is worth a thousand words, and those who actually how up in blazing heat and freezing cold weather to just stand in a crowd of thousands – speaks perhaps more to the average voter.

Fast forward four years, and an incumbent who appears to be in a dead heat in the polls with a Republican Candidate who has little but business success to seriously criticize, coupled with an economy that is charitably noted as stagnant, and one finds “hope and change” has become “despair and disillusionment”. The polls, however, are consistently cited, as “proof” that President Obama is going to “win” in November, the Obama Campaign and the Democrat Super Pac’s have spent millions on negative advertising – attacking Mitt Romney, and now his V.P. choice, Paul Ryan – in the extreme, but there is never a mention of the President’s crowd size in swing states as the final months of the campaign approach and the general citizenship that votes is now starting to pay attention. The media has even touted the fact that Obama is a strong bet in on-line betting – “Paddy Power” has the President a favorite, yet warns that “a lot can happen between now and the election and we wouldn’t right off Romney’s chances just yet.”(Politico).

Anyone who’s ever placed on a favorite to win by a tight margin to win, at a low return, understands that there are huge amounts of money on that one team, horse or political candidate – it is one of three factors, large bets placed on behalf of the team by either the owners or the odds makers or the team or horse has such a clean bill of health (no injuries) and is playing against a much weaker field, that the horse, team or candidate is a good bet, even with a low return. In gambling such as this, which is illegal in most instances (including the off-shore online odds makers in this instance) one might want to hedge their bets by placing bets on both the “popular team” and the “underdog” – just in case that extra boost of cash that drove up the odds came from a politically active, well financed groups of individuals.

Summing it up, the reasoning used for the close race between President Obama and Mitt Romney are early polls and off-shore betting.

Suddenly crowd size doesn’t appear to matter – much on the surface. However, an email sent out by the DNC on behalf of the Obama Campaign suggests otherwise:

The email:
Paul --
I just got this disturbing report: Yesterday's Romney-Ryan rally in North Carolina pulled in an overflow crowd of 15,000 people.
There's no spinning that number. It's a LOT of people, and the Republican base in energized.
And that's not all. Since the VP announcement, Romney's campaign has brought in over 70,000 donations from his Tea Party base.
We've got to step up our game and mobilize our supporters -- starting right now.
Donate $3 or right now to help us rally our base around President Obama's agenda >>
Listen to what one Republican supporter said about Paul Ryan: "I love him...He's going to excite the Tea Party and get them on board..."
We can't let the Republicans claim the momentum. Donate $3 or whatever you can:
http://dccc.org/Stand-With-President-Obama
Thanks,
Brynne
Brynne Craig
DCCC Field Director

From the Washington Examiner: “New Obama panic: Romney crowd sizes”

What about hecklers or protesters at these crowds? The Ryan Rally at the Iowa State Fair saw thousands of supporters line the grounds, with a heckler or two who had managed to get on stage, escorted off by Iowa (State or Local) Police (Des Moines Register).

At the same time a silent protestor in a crowd of 2,000 at an Obama rally in Boone IA, was more respectful of the President, whom he supports:

Monday's demonstration was "kind of tame" for Prabhu, who said he has protested much more vocally at political rallies in the past. But as a supporter of the president, he didn't want to cause too big of a scene.

"[The campaign] kind of told me to take it down," Prabhu said, referring to his sign. "And I did because I didn't want to cause a ruckus. At the end of the day, [Obama's] vulnerable in Iowa and you don't want to mess anything up."

(CNN Article: “Protester shares stage with president”)

Photographs from the Des Moines Register show the crowds that gathered to hear Romney’s VP Choice, Paul Ryan speak (Click here for Gallery), show a healthy crowd. Photographs from the same source at the same fair only focusing on the Obama Campaign, shows a different type of event, the President doing retail politics, and stopping at a fair booth with hundreds of supporters lined up to take photos.

Romney, alone in Florida, pulled in overflow crowds in near Jacksonville at Flagler College(Orlando Sentinel reporting on crowds attempting to enter the area where Romney would speak.

Romney is pulling crowds with and without his running mate Paul Ryan, in the ten thousands (article from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Ryan’s stop with Romney in WI) This is Ryan’s Home State. The President at a fundraiser in his home town of Chicago, with a reasonable price tag of $51.00 according to one reporter: “At Obama fundraiser in Chicago. Admission only $51, but room is half full,” New York Times reporter Jodi Kantor wrote on Twitter.” That Politico article goes on to note that the Obama Campaign expected far fewer than 1000 people to show up, and the room was not as empty as the reporter – well reported.

Really?

What one finds is an energized base of Republican’s and Republican Leaning Independents thronging to see Mitt Romney with Paul Ryan running on a message of job creation, and economic prosperity. On the flip side, one finds anemic crowds at best, showing for Obama and Biden events, with a campaign running on “sharing the prosperity”, and negatives, proven mostly false, on the Romney-Ryan team. (Speaking to the Obama PAC Campaign ad with Joe Soptick as well as the media blitz and Obama Campaign focus on an old Ryan budget that was proposed several years ago, rather than the last several budget proposals sent to the Senate, and hastily sent back to the House – without a vote. Ryan is considered “controversial” in Washington - according ot the Washington Post. If Ryan is controversial in Washington, perhaps it is because he has told lawmakers they need to rein in spending and actually produce a budget – any budget – he’s presented several, year after year – his main focus on these budgets: saving Social Security and Medicare for Seniors age 55 plus, a key point that is left out of every ad, and every article.
Now that’s controversial.

That may be why a team offering solutions is drawing crowds hopeful that they will fix a problem (the economy) and the incumbent in this case, is not as big of a draw, either in fundraising or crowds, because he and his team are considered part of the problem. If one were betting and the odds favored the team that had a few injuries, would they not want to perhaps bet on the healthy team – just in case the polls were not as close and the underdog’s supporters would rather send their cash directly to the campaign.