New Obama Campaign Tactic – Compare Romney to Bush – Negative Campaign Continues - Amnesia: "Miss Me Yet?" New Scientific Polling - Analysis

The Obama2012 Campaign is running a new ad in Colorado - which compares 2012 GOP Candidate, former MA Governor, Mitt Romney to former President George W. Bush(Politico) The video is available here on the Obama Campaign’s YouTube Channel. It may be tactic that works with the base, however, the target should be the Independent – especially if the polls (and internal polls) suggest a close race – and one has to wonder if this tactic will work as well as intended. The fact that, on several occasion, former President Bill Clinton has endorsed and/or stood by President Barack Obama, hardly suggests a comparison between the two men. In fact, President Clinton, the most popular American President in recent history – has made very flattering comments regarding President Obama’s opponent – the most recent in June, ”praising Romney’s sterling business career” (ABC News, June 1, 2012) Therefore, when one is in the same political party, one generally is endorsed, heartily or half-heartedly by the political party leaders, both past and present. Additionally, Romney’s governance of Massachusetts (which, indeed, he does have a governing record going into the campaign, rather than a legislative record), could in no wise be compared to Bush’s style, on both fiscal and social issue levels, no more than President Obama can compare his style of governing the nation to President William Jefferson Clinton’s.

Furthermore, as much as former President, George W. Bush, is still loathed by the left, there are those darned ” Miss Me Yet” billboards and the popularity of the “Miss Me Yet” t-shirts”that come into play.

If, the polls are correct and every vote counts, the constant negative drumbeat, coming from the Obama Campaign and the press, specifically regarding Mitt Romney, (pick a topic) can’t help. This was true of the attacks on Romney and his association with Bain Capital which, according to a USA Today Poll, had no affect on the preference of potential voters, who 2 to1 chose Mitt Romney on the economy.

Further, fundraising has been on the slow side, with the exception of Hollywood – as Politico stunningly reports that the President is donating to his own campaign, a commonplace event amongst Politicians’, however, one might not want to announce that to one’s potential donors – even as a “scare tactic”. A smart campaign has PAC’s running negative ads, allowing the campaign to either run positive messages or compare and contrast ads. A compare and contrast ad is one which compares a specific vision or issue or record of one candidate to another – with a bit of detail. The ad running in Colorado compares Romney’s vision to George Bush’s (perhaps not completely accurately), to President Obama’s vision - one which notes a $250,000 as the tax-cut (Bush era tax cuts and the $250,000 threshold) – as “wealthy” (not by small business standards), and reiterates the “rich can afford to pay more” message that generates class warfare.

Perhaps President Obama’s Campaign plans on running to the center after the election, but then they would be counting on the very short-term memory of the electorate and a massive economic turn-around. Negative messaging worked successfully for the Romney Campaign during the brutal 2012 GOP primary, but, and the big but, then Candidate Romney could point to a PAC rather than his campaign as the culprit. The latest Romney Campaign ad “Believe in Our Future” (watch here on the Romney Campaign You Tube Channel) speaks to Governor Romney’s experience in business and governing, and how he will apply those experiences to the Office of the Presidency.
The difference at this point is that Romney has run to the center, the way he governed in Massachusetts – which, can at times annoy the hard right – but at the same time, attract the moderate, the independent and yes, the Democrat. (Note: The Romney Campaign uses President Bill Clinton’s quote in the ad referenced above.). The negative advertising coming directly from a campaign makes one wonder what the internal polling shows – perhaps a race that is not quite as close as the polls currently suggest.

Note on polling: There is an interesting article from Reuter’s India entitled “Analysis: Scientists go beyond the polls to forecast U.S. election” in which analytics are applied to forecast the outcome of elections – not unlike actual polls, where samples can and do vary, the polls by U.S. academics, suggest a close election, including a quantifier that uses “racial bias” in the equation.

Three years after emerging from a deep recession, the economy has not recovered. The unemployment rate has been stuck above 8 percent for 41 months -- nearly Obama's entire time in office.
For his model, University of Iowa professor Michael Lewis-Beck looks at decades of data on job creation and presidential approval. His preliminary forecast, made with Charles Tien of the City University of New York, gives Obama 46.9 percent of the vote and Romney 53.1 percent.

(in.Reuters.com - reference link in above para)

The balance with modifications, have the two candidates within points of each other – (based on popularity and trends), - they have been as accurate as other posters – on the popular vote, which, in races that are within hair-breaths – the Electoral College trumps all models.

Yet, one has to ask which forecasters model is correct – the one that uses economic data with trends (shown above) or the models that are consistent with current polling – one might look to the negative ads and the increased vitriol against one candidate over another by the press to make an educated guess.