Mitt Romney favored 2 to 1 to lead U.S. on Economy - image UPI
The summer has seen a good deal of negative ads by the Obama Campaign and general U.S. press for 2012 Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney, specifically on his stewardship of Bain Capital and subsequent split from the firm in 1999, have had little impact on Romney’s chances in November. A USA Today/Gallup Poll finds that “By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney's background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation's economic problems over the next four years.” The poll, a rolling 4 day survey of 1030 adults concluded on the July 22, 2012, suggests that although the President is more “likeable” than Romney, the President appears to own the economy. In addition, Republican and Republican Leaning Independent voters are showing more enthusiasm towards voting by 18 points, compared to their Democrat and Democrat leaning counterparts who are “less enthusiastic” than usual. (See complete article here at USA Today.com)
In a separate poll conducted by the The Hill. com, taken on July 19th, with a similar number of survey participants (1000), concludes that “Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else”… 53 percent of voters say Obama has taken the wrong actions and has slowed the economy down. Forty-two percent said he has taken the right actions to revive the economy, while six percent said they were not sure. (See Marginals here at thehill.com (PDF) Further in breaking down the marginal’s this poll shows that, there is little difference in opinion between genders and those polled that are in the 18-39 demographic, with party affiliation split to more accurately define the electorate, while on age demographics, those 65 or older were not polled as strongly as those in the 18-39 and 40-64 brackets, which made up over 85% of the poll. That said, if the economy is the issue, the data may not have changed a great deal as the “baby boomers” in that 65 plus bracket are on fixed incomes, or forced to return to the workforce to supplement their income.
What this tells us is that the economy is the driving force behind this election, that negative ads are either ignored or no-one is paying overly much attention to these ads, either on the web, television, radio or print as the summer months finds fewer people consuming the “news”. Additionally, Gallup’s June, 2012 confidence (trust) in institutions polling on Political Party lines finds that Television News is held in high esteem by 17% of Republicans, 17% of Independents and merely 34% of Democrats, while print news is only slightly higher, at 22, 20 and 37% respectively. The highest confidence is in Small Business, across the board as well as The Military, the Police and Organized Religion. Of note, two of the categories that have lost the most confidence in this series of polls by Gallup, are the Presidency and Organized Labor, along with Public Schools. . This is a dramatic shift, specifically by those polled as Independents and Democrats, as far as their levels of confidence are concerned.
Therefore, the lack of confidence in consumer news (be it CBS, ABC, Fox, or the daily paper), appears to have impacted this election similarly to that of the 2010 election, where those numbers began to decline among Independents and Democrats. Viewing the data among party lines, one finds that the lack of enthusiasm in the Democrat Demographic has held steady. Those who are generally perceived to be Democrat voters, academics and labor, with the largest block being labor, are now in agreement, in growing numbers with Independents and Republican counterparts.
“Jumping ship” in politics, can be seen starkly in Massachusetts, in the Senate Race between Scott Brown(R) and Elizabeth Warren (D), where it appears that weekly, Brown is being endorsed by Office-Holding Massachusetts Democrats. Boston Globe. Elizabeth Warren, responsible for the “You didn’t build it” (paraphrasing) concept used by the President in a recent speech, has been running approximately even in the polls with Brown – for now. Although viewed as the “bluest state”, Brown was elected in 2009 by 5 points, with the dead voting. Warren, is every bit or more flawed a candidate than Attorney General Martha Coakley, who ran against Brown in that election. The press is suggesting Obama’s connection to Warren as a key to her win in the one of 10 states where the President’s approval is still over 50% (Gallup Survey, consecutive 3 years.). (Examiner) However, that did little to boost the chances of Elizabeth Warren, including a visit to the Bay State during the last weeks of the campaign to bolster Coakley. One might hypothesis that Coakley’s loss was based on her assumption that a Democrat in Massachusetts is a shoe-in, which may be way – Warren does not mention party affiliation in her advertising. Therefore, to those who are feeling the economic sting in Massachusetts, it may be a Reagan moment come November. In 1980 Carter was polling well in MA, but lost the Bay State to then Governor Ronald Reagan.
Of course, polls change with each week, as the economy and other factors that drive the electorate are apt to change on a dime – it is still far too early to project outcomes in November from any data on the specific races – yet, one might understand that if the Gallup institution polling is accurate and remains so – then there is, indeed, change in the future. To paraphrase America’s beloved President William Jefferson Clinton – “It’s the Economy Stupid”, may well be the bellwether in this 2012 election.
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