Friday, May 04, 2012

Mitt Romney – Party Unifying Behind the Presumptive GOP Nominee – Bachmann Endorses – Fantasy Electoral Map: ABC outcome versus Gallup Polls.



Michelle Bachmann on the Stump for Mitt Romney for President- image Boston Globe




ABC News – Yahoo News: Michelle Bachmann has endorsed Mitt Romney with a typical Bachmannism: (Mitt Romney is) “"the last chance we have to keep America from going ... over a cliff." The only woman to run on the GOP ticket, Bachmann left the race in January after the Iowa Caucus – she is noted for her work with the Tea Party from the beginning, and was responsible for rallying Conservatives to an historical win in the 2010 general election.

Bachmann, along with Governor Bob McDonnell went on the campaign trail with Mitt Romney in Virginia yesterday, of course there was the usual speculation as to which former candidate or Governor, might be in consideration for the V.P. slot, (Politico) however, as history tells us, no-one is going to be aware of who Mitt Romney will choose as his second. In Romney’s case, as a businessman and former Governor, he will look towards capabilities, as well as the political opportunity a particular V.P. candidate might bring to the table. Therefore, it’s anyone’s guess, and speculation is rampant with every single high profile Republican who has endorsed Romney – from Senator Rubio in Florida, to Nikki Haley in South Carolina.

Over at ABC News one can play “fantasy” election – by mapping the electoral votes by state, awarding the states that one believes would go to Mitt Romney and those that Might go to Barack Obama – ABC Currently favors Romney: with 198 to Obama’s 196 solid votes (either Democrat or Republican based on voting history of the state in question – Obama picks up 54 votes for states that “lean Democrat”, while Romney has 11 that lean Republican, there are 82 electoral votes that are “could go either way”, from the following states: VA, NC, IA, FL, NV and CO. Of course, one might use an entirely different method of playing this game - basing it on the Presidents job performance numbers, state by state. Any state over 50% approvals (and that includes states where his approval is at 50.1%) is a fairly safe bet for Obama – there are, according to Gallup’s latest findings: 10 states where Obama enjoy a 50% or better threshold of job performance approval. This has been consistent with the last three survey’s taken by the polling firm – Approval January 2012, February 2011, and the first in February 2010, when the map looked a little bright for the President, the top states where his approval ranked higher than others, remained the same.)

Using this data, giving the President the consistent 10 states, the “Fantasy” Map (versus the ABC Official Fantasy Map (ABS Does Not sure the Word Fantasy, but given the fact that the news organization has about as much chance as accurately predicting the outcome of the 2012 general as, well, a blogger using Gallup approval rankings in 10 states) - the map looks a bit more like:


Map Generated by ABC Fantasy Election Game - using Polling data from Gallup - click to enlarge


In the map above, it looks similar to a route, and although giving Romney the industrial states of Michigan Ohio and Wisconsin may appear to be a bit risky, it is based on who might get out to vote, and who might just stay home – with every indication that the youth vote could care less, and that there would have to be some sort of miracle between now and November to turn the tide on the price of gas, food, and goods, and create several million jobs, (in the private sector), while uniting not only the Democrat Party but the Independents and yes some Republicans – in this mind, not likely. Even with the dead voting, with the current climate in Massachusetts, the state has been given to changing minds in Carter-like election years: as well as several of the other states given to the President as “solid” Democrat. It is more likely that the race will depend, this time, on the persona of the individual, or their ties to figures in recent history (i.e. tying Romney to Bush is similar to tying Obama to Clinton – no one is buying it – unless one is speaking to the “choir.)


You too can play along: at abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/fullpage/2012-presidential-electionos-fantsasy-game-game-changer-1517794.

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