Fortunes subject to change as GOP vetting process continues: pictured: Cain and Gingrich, current frontrunner and the men who may surprise pundits - image Arab American Institute
The Headline from the Boston Globe: “AP-GfK Poll: Public unsettled on Obama challenger, the lead in from the AP article: “Americans have yet to find a Republican they'd clearly prefer over President Barack Obama, although half say the president does not deserve re-election.”(Globe), suggests that the likely Republican voters is not quite satisfied with the current field of candidates, however, one might point out to the AP (and the Globe, and other AP subscribers) that the process of the campaign leading up to the primary (including debates and polls) is a vetting process by the people. In fact, one could propose that in this election, there will be more serious vetting of candid dates for this field, and one can take it to the bank, this will not be an election based on “popularity” rather the person that is deemed most capable to lead the nation out of economic chaos. This theme crosses party lines, and every other line one might consider.
The polls referred to in this blog article were taken prior to the CNN debate on Monday the 18th, however, from this perspective little should change in the overall numbers, perhaps a point or two either way between Romney and Cain, with Perry losing perhaps a point or more, and Gingrich and Bachmann with pickups, Ron Paul should remain about the same, the later three receiving the least amount of media attention – or general attention for that matter, outside of core political junkies.
The process of vetting a candidate in this election (the AP-GFK Poll, not unlike all other polls, includes a sample of from the entire electorate), shows a noticeable increase over prior years – hiring the right candidate for the job might take a bit more time. Voters are undecided, and carefully weighing which candidate is best to lead, not necessarily which candidate might best “beat” the President, who is, in every poll, no matter how one dices it or frames the question, underwater. In field tests by this blogger, most respondents (unscientific, respondents cross party and left of center state lines (i.e. New York, Massachusetts, Texas, Arkansas, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut) - the general consensus, any one of the current field of eight would deserve the chance to gain the GOP nomination, and further, preferable to the current Chief Executive. In fact, although individuals are interested in different candidates, the process of vetting from week to week, debate to debate, is by the core values, overall debate performances and fact checks of statements made by candidates (self-researched in news archives), rather than how much cash is on hand.
Therefore, although the primary season for the GOP has been pushed up in some cases, and is only six weeks away, given the current crop of candidates, one might see multiple candidates post Iowa and New Hampshire continuing to vie for the nomination, which drives the Press and the Beltway around the bend. As of now, the most popular candid date from both this bloggers sample and the national polling samples appears to be Herman Cain, the reasoning for the most part, and contrary to the AP article, is because he has experience in business, over an extended period of time, and understands how to hire the right people, apparently a plus. Additionally, the fact that Cain was not born with a proverbial silver spoon, and has little to no (that anyone can seem to find) personal baggage, helps this candidate.
Romney is the choice of the political class, and the more moderate Republican who is under the impression that anyone but Mitt Romney (or a moderate) is unelectable nationwide (Evidence to the contrary: self-made man, Ronald Reagan, who was hardly presented as a Moderate). In addition, former 2008 Presidential Candidate, Mike Huckabee proved that no cash on hand beats millions, essentially the candidate that forced a hefty, war chested, Romney, out of the 2008 race by February. The critical state it appeared in 2008 – South Carolina.
The latest polling out of South Carolina via The Savannah Morning News refers to an Augusta Chronicle poll, taken October 16th: shows Cain with 32%, Romney next with 16.4% and Perry at 12.4%, Gingrich follows with 7.8% (note: 14% undecided) Although polls are obviously subject to change by the week, as candidates are further vetted by the people who intend to vote, the more likely support will solidify around three of the top candidates reducing the number of undecideds'. A double digit lead in South Carolina, which is the “gateway to the south” in any election (and the path to the nomination), is one which, if maintained, puts the handwriting on the wall.
Of the 1000 individual over the age of 18, taken by AP/GFK, and to which the Globe refers, appeared top heavy in the voting bloc that is least motivated (18-29 years), comprising 19% of the total, 21% considered themselves “liberal”, with 31% moderate and the balance conservative, political affiliation: 44% Democrat, 36% Republican and 5% Independent, with 14% unsure of what party/ideology they subscribe. Given that the majority of those polled are Democrat, by nearly 10 points, makes the matchups between the President and each of the top three candidates, all the more stunning: Obama bests Romney by 1, Cain by 1, and Perry by 1 – in a poll where the margin of error is plus or minute 4 points, this reads that regardless of how these candidates are individually ranked by Republican voters, any one is in a position to best the President.
Finally a CNN/ORC poll conducted in the same period (October 17), including the same sample
amount approximately as the AP poll (the Augusta Poll sample was smaller, at 475, which is consistent for geographically smaller samples in polling.), gives the following tidbits, Republicans are far more enthusiastic in going into the polls compared to Democrats (includes leaners). Romney, Cain and Perry remained the top three, with Romney ahead of Cain in the CNN poll by one, or statistically tied), Perry in third with 13% , followed by Ron Paul with 8%. As to candidate support, this also remains fluid, with a majority taking the option of possibly changing their minds, depending upon, several factors (outlined in the poll data available here at http://12.cdn.turner.com/cann/2011/images/10/17/oct17.poll.pdf.
Therefore, what this tells us: Cain is already head in the key Southern State of SC; he has traveled, to date, through the south, which, again, will, to this point of view, be the pivotal geographic test for all candidates. Can will be campaigning in both New Hampshire and Iowa in the coming weeks. Romney has millions, along with Perry, which does not give either candidate a commanding lead, Gingrich would gain the most in the next weeks, form both of those candidates. Across the board, looking at the total numbers, Democrats are interested in who the Republican Nominee is, in fact, in many instances, obviously making a choice of candidate, rather than supporting the incumbent. Finally, the most salient fact that we learn from this process, including polls, is that the people of the USA, are taking the time to carefully assess each of those eight on that stage, based on nothing more than their ability to do the job. It is safe to say, in this election: the GOP nominee may not be the most handsome, may not be the most educated, (i.e. Ivy League Eastern snobbery), the Nominee may not even have held public office before, the nominee may be, at this moment, polling in single digits, as front runners are put under extreme scrutiny, which, will raise and lower their stock, particularly during the next two months, with the final debates before the Iowa Caucus and NH Primaries, most likely playing a pivotal role in the process.
The next debates will be held:
November 9th, 2011 8pm EST on CNBC
Location: Oakland University in Rochester, MI
Sponsor: CNBC and the Michigan Republican Party
December 10th, 2011 8pm EST on ABC
Location: Des Moines, IA
Sponsor: ABC News and Republican Party of Iowa
Information courtesy of the ever brilliant staff at http://Hillbuzz.org
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