Romney & Palin, most likely front runners 2012, as of May: image New York Daily News
Although the Wall Street Journal bloggedon a recent Suffolk University 2012 Poll, the article suggested that Obama was not beatable if the election were “held today”, and that Mitt Romney benefited the most from Governor Mike Huckabee and businessman Donald Trump’s decisions to forgo the 2012 campaigns.
However, when one reviews the marginal’s here at www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Suffolk.University.Naitonal.Survey.Marginals.May.17.2011.pdf, a slightly different perspective is gained.
As to the President’s overall chances of reelection: 48% to 43% (8% undecided) believe it’s time for someone new to take the helm. More telling: 63% of respondents intend to vote in the Republican primaries, while only 34% of the respondents were Registered Republicans. In addition the Republican Field is considered by 46 to 40% (14% undecided) to be satisfactory. However, when looking at the candidates included in the field, (even with Trump and Huckabee Removed), most are, to say the least, unexpected to run: The following were included in the questions regarding the GOP Primary (including the percentage of interest and undecided’s): Michele Bachmann, 2%, Herman Cain,2%, Mitch Daniels, 2%, Newt Gingrich, 2%, Rudy Giuliani, 10%, John Huntsman, 0%, Gary Johnson, O%, Sarah Palin 16%, Ron Paul, 4%, Tim Pawlenty 8%, Buddy Roemer, 0%, Mitt Romney 29%, Rick Santorum, 6%, and undecided 20%.
Considering that Michele Bachman, Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, and Rick Santorum have not officially announced, with some candidates unlikely to even enter the race (Giuliani), the poll skews away from Romney using Giuliani as an example by 10%. This is given the fact that both Romney and Giuliani are considered “moderate” by those who are “extremely conservative”. That said, an additional 20% are yet undecided, as the field such as this, with some candidates clearly not viable due to having not indicated even an interest in the race. Therefore, the poll confuses the actual outcome attributed to Romney. In addition in a head to head matchup with the “unbeatable Obama”, Romney fares quite well. On Question 15 (which appears to have been taken prior to the exits of Mr.’s. Trump and Huckabee – only the “GOP Field questions were callbacks according to the pollster’s marginal’s – not the lead questions on the GOP individual candidates and matchups). Obama garners 46% to Romney’s 43%, 1% indicated “other” and 10% were “undecided”. When on views the respondent data: out of 1070 polled, the political affiliation was as follows: 39% Democrat, 34% Republican, 22% Unenrolled or Independent and 5% other. Given that Obama Received 46% with 39% of the Respondents Democrat, the remaining 7% may have been Independent or other, that leaves Romney, with 9% of his support coming from independent or other, or with a slightly better edge with the “independent voter than the President.
Given the fact that both campaigns have yet to pick up any real steam, other than media drumbeat, Romney is, this far out in the game, fairly well positioned for the run at the White House, this is contrary to the WSJ report, which begs the questions: did the author consider reading the marginals? As with any poll, the marginals are more telling that the editorial on the polls release. The data serves to give an overview of the demographic that the pollster employed, and one can determine if it accurately reflects the voting public (in this case, most likely). In addition, one can see where those polled contradict the headlines vis a vis, the Republican Field and general dissatisfaction with the current “crop” of candidates, by merely looking at the marginals.
Therefore, Romney, even with imaginary candidates, polls highest in the field, and against Obama is within the Margin of error on the poll, therefore, it is a statistical tie- and not as headlined, a huge win for the President. Of course, all this before all candidates named (or even some unnamed such as Rick Perry, Governor of Texas who is toying with the idea of running for the GOP nod) have committed or not, before any firm field has been established. Therefore, should Romney continue his current path of high fundraising, keep up his visits to the all important early primary states, he should be well positioned, even with the promise of a “dark horse” candidate, which has yet to emerge. What the fled lost with the decisions of both Huckabee and Trump was an excitement factor that was due mostly to entertainment factor (on Trumps part) and the “celebrity” of both candidates, which clearly gave them a temporary edge. Romney, for his perfect hair, his stiff upper lip, and his penchant for being down the middle, does not sit well with most social conservatives, however, one cannot imagine that even the most stalwart of those right of right, would forgoes the opportunity to remove Obama from office, and vote for Romney even if they disliked the man.
On the Massachusetts versus the U.S Health Care Reform Debate and Romney’s refusal to let go of his legislation and or apologize for conceiving of a plan that was exported nationwide: he’ll more than survive this. One, he did not apologize because the man truly believes he did the right thing for Massachusetts based on the financial aspect and projected costs savings of his model. He stuck to his guns. What he most likely should have done, was bring along his infamous PowerPoint, showing Romney’s version and what became of it once the Massachusetts Democrat controlled legislature got a hold of it, after he left office. One finds two different animal – and one thing that is missing from the conversation: Romney care, as it is now called, actually proved Romney has some compassion mixed with his business sense, something that appeals to those moderate Republicans, moderate Independents and yes, even some moderate Democrats. Other than his perfect hair and the health care issue, there’s little left in Romney’s closet to upset the “conservative base” – Additionally contrary to popular theory, Romney can take the south, and the Midwest and the northeast, with some exceptions: One would expect in a matchup between Romney and the President, that Obama would hold the states of Massachusetts (this is based on data from Obama’s approval being above 50% statewide), Hawaii, California and New York, there were a total of ten states where the President’s approval indicated that he might be re-electable In those states. The rest, falling well below 50% would, in all likelihood go to the Republican nominee. Romney may even pick up states by default, regardless of political ideology. That sums it up as of the latest poll and the way in which, when “pulled apart” one can find a totally different scenario emerge, one that is more likely than “No Republican can Beat Obama” – to which one can say with some authority
“Hog wash!”.
Gallup polling currently shows that Obama has a 3 point advantage (one would say within the margin of error) over any Republican candidate) – the score: Obama 43, unnamed Republican 40 – leaving 17% undecided – or in line with the Suffolk Poll. In addition, Gallup contends there are “no clear front runners”, with Romney and Palin taking the lead out of the following field:
Romney, 20%, Palin, 18%, Gingrich, 11%, Ron Paul, 8%, Michelle Bachman, 5%, Mitch Daniels, 4%, Tim Pawlenty, 4%, Rick Santorum and John Huntsman at 2% respectively, Gary Johnson at 1%, and Herman Cain at 0%. This field is more comprehensive (fewer choices) than the Suffolk poll), however, again, includes candidates that are, for the most part, undeclared as to intent. That includes Sarah Palin, who has yet to enter the fray.
Of interest and back to the Suffolk Poll, given all the aforementioned data, one question stood out like a sore thumb: Question 55 on the Suffolk Marginals asks: Do you think a woman will be elected president in 2012 or 2016? 51% agreed, only 36% said no and 13% were undecided.
Therefore, it is no out of the realm of possibility that a strong, well funded, female candidate could conceivably win the general election, sooner than later. Of the two GOP potential female candidates, Palin and Bachman, Palin is the only candidate that has experience governing, and has a high profile among GOP voters. Michelle Bachman, a congresswoman, has less governing credentials and, although wedded to the Tea Party Movement, more than Palin, is still lacking the litmus governing test. Interestingly, Romney, although polling ahead, and able to beat the President, is followed next in both polls by Palin.
Word of caution, we’ve got a long way to go before November, when, all begins in real earnest ahead of the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary.
Poll data all sources; Gallup Polling and Suffolk University.
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