Sarah Palin - On the Road - image New York Sun
A recently released set of Gallup Polls, the first on GOP potential and announced Presidential candidates show’s Sarah Palin within 2 points of Mitt Romney, out of a field of 14, included “other”. Romney leads with 17%, Palin 15%, Ron Paul 10%, Newt Gingrich 9%, Herman Cain 8%, Pawlenty 6%, Bachman 5%, and the following under 5 points: Huntsman, Johnson, Santorum, Huckabee (no longer in the race) and Chris Christie. The biggest percentage went to none/no opinion at 22% with 2% choosing other. Both Palin, Romney and Gingrich have yet to officially announce, while Paul, Cain, Pawlenty are all in the race. (Gallup)
In a second poll, based on major GOP issues (which in any wise should be national issues): Palin and Romney take the lead: in most cases Palin ties or leads Romney on all major issues: one exception: Government Spending and Power: Romney takes that category in a margin of 17% to Palin's 11%, Herman Cain, trumps Newt Gingrich at 13 % and Gingrich takes 12 %. That is a phenomenal showing for Cain, as this is his “debut Gallup poll”. The balance of the questions in this poll however, are dominated by Palin and Romney – On Business and the Economy: Romney 16%, Palin: 14%, On Social and Moral Values: Palin 23% and Romney 18%, and both are tied on National Security and Foreign Policy issues. As of this poll taken end May 2011, GOP issues are ranked in the following order: Government Spending 36%, Business and the Economy 31%, Social Issues 15% and National Security 15%. Business and the Economy has remained second in issues behind Government Spending with most GOP and GOP leaning Independents, with Social Issues and National Security lagging behind by several points.
With Palin closing in on Business and the Economy and besting Romney on Social Issues, with a Tie on Foreign Policy, one sees the credibility of a Palin announcement given the lack of excitement in the current field of candidates. Additionally, although Palin is not, by any stretch of the imagination a media darling. Rather she is the only candidate, to which the media appears to have taken a slash and burn tactic, no holds barred, going not after issues, rather Palin’s appearance, family, personal life – in other words, they are treating Palin like a woman. She also is one of the only candidates to be able to stand the heat, take it and dish it back out – in kind. This is one of her strongest points with those Conservatives who have felt that candidates and elected officials that are GOP tend to do their best to placate a hostile media – Palin takes them head on.
A reminder, it is still too early to make decisions or projections based on the above, however, one cannot resist viewing the top tier “candidates”, in a national primary scenario, which is still over eight months or more away, should this trend continue (Palin, who is beginning a nationwide tour which begins in DC and heads up to New England before moving on to the balance of the nation in what can only be deemed a beginning of her candidacy.), one sees Palin doing well with GOP voters, specifically in the south and Midwest, than say Romney, it would be a race right down to the end, something that would keep the GOP in the limelight and give Palin, who holds nothing back, an opportunity to continue to point out the fact that, yes, President Obama is extremely beatable (see Gallup’s approval rank for the President, versus the electoral college map: he takes 10 states only based on approval.). This is what those conservatives and conservative leaning independents want to hear and they are not getting that from the GOP establishment. This furthers the Palin as non-Washington persona which is so critical to success within today’s’ electorate. Additionally, she has taken all the shots that could have been thrown at her and will obviously continue to do so, should she actually seek the nomination. Therefore, it may be a Palin Romney ticket one sees emerge in 2012.
Palin’s tour begins this Sunday in DC and then heads to New England- more information can be found at www.sarahpac.com. It will be most interesting to see how well Palin is received in New England versus Romney.
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