Soon to be unemployed? Photo Boston Globe - Eight of the 10 MA Congressional Reps with Gov. Deval Patrick (also on the retirement train)
The Democrats believe that they may have a plan to save the house, or at least a portion of their members as outlined in an articlevia the Oakland Tribune (Inside the Bay Area’s) One has to understand that in the interest of moral, those that are the powers that be, must put on good face and continue to say “Democrats Won’t Lose the House” while looking less certain by the second.
According to this article, Democrats are going to assess which party members are most vulnerable, and abandon them completely in favor of easier pickups, perhaps a weak Republican candidate or an incumbent with weak opposition. Unfortunately, this is going to leave a lot of their top leaders out of luck, or perhaps they feel that the 2 to 3 million in cash is going to be enough to save: Pelosi, Frank and Rangel’s protégé Richard Neal.
What has happened, especially in Massachusetts, and one can suspect elsewhere, is that the tactics have changed for the RNC. They are, in a word, campaigning like Democrats, only they have more money, and a better ground game – one that includes independents as well as Democrats who are so fed up with the economy that they are willing to “take back their party” by voting for a Republican.
Therefore, with the :30 second commercials (radio and television), one not only has flyers in the mail, one also has real live volunteers calling their houses (along with those robocalls) and best of all, the troops are knocking on doors. This is something new for the average Republican in Massachusetts – who at first knock looks warily out the window, making sure that some Religious Group hasn’t found their way to their doorstep!
Herein lays the problem – there are incumbents in districts who are, on pundit and analyst paper (or web) completely safe. Therefore, why funnel money into say – Massachustts? Surely Barney Frank, Richard Neal, Nikki Tsongas, John Tierney and all 9 of the incumbents are “safe Democrat”. The 10th seat is open and being Massachusetts, it follows, should go to the Democrat running against what-ever Republican is on the ballot. That was pre-2008 think – This is 2010. Simply stated, aside from those venerable institutions that have long standing intelligence on the ground (and can’t see the forest through the trees) the Democrats somehow really believe that these seats are safe, or they are prepared to lose them (based on internal polls). They have thrown a proverbial dog a bone, so to speak – In the Hampden Second, it was understood by media reports, that Richard Neal was going to get help from the most popular Democrat alive: Bill Clinton. The question remains, can even Bill Clinton save Neal? Or would it be a wasted trip?
When one goes to the Massachusetts Secretary of State’s website, one can find the candidates on the primary ballots, both Democrat and Republican. The story here: there are more competitive Republican primaries than Democrat primaries, with the exception of the 4th District. In the 4th District, Barney Frank (Incumbent – Democrat) faces one Rachel Brown (D).
What most political parties bank on during primaries is twofold, the individual state and local committees support and advertising (i.e. favorable media coverage or actual advertisements be it direct mail, electronic or print.) Herein lays the problem: Local city and town committee may endorse a candidate, but the rank and file (regardless of party) most likely cannot name who is on that particular committee. The candidate that relies solely on committee endorsement laurels, so to speak, is in huge trouble – for two reasons: 1) the ordinary Democrat or Republican voter does not pay attention or missed the 2 paragraph note on page 35 of the local paper announcing that endorsement, or they are desperately seeking alternatives due to the current economic climate.
Therefore, this election is going to go down in history as a “free for all” – basically it is up for grabs, regardless of party, primary and or general outcome of both. It is, for lack of a better word, the taxpayers revenge about to be visited upon anyone that individual feels will not work, or has not worked for their personal best interest. Unfortunately, the majority of those politicians’s fall under the Democrat mantle.
In reviewing the latest date from Real Clear Politics, a website that covers all political races, and uses a methodology that combines all pollsters for any given race, it appears that as time progresses, it appears that “chaos” rules the day. (Note: There have been no polls on any of the Massachusetts Congressional, other than internal polls taken by mostly Democrats (see Richard Neal’s Bill Clinton Star Power tour), showing an uphill battle for the first time in decades. One can assume that there are other states where it is similar, including California. For example: the map here depicts the current races across the country that are deemed competitive or “safe”. At present, the Republicans have 206 seats, the Democrats 194, with 35 seats considered “toss ups”. Of those represented, the most conspicuously absent is the CA8th district, or the district that is home to one Nancy Pelosi. In addition they have two Massachusetts Seats listed, one the 10th is open, and considered a tossup – the other, the Mass 5th, is considered “Safe Democrat”. Both of those seats are assumed safe, based on the Obama won theory, or the past voting history of the district. This methodology, without polls, cannot be considered viable, regardless of the “political intelligence” on the ground (mostly Democrat and Republican operatives), one must look to the climate overall.
The latest unemployment figures are now at 9.6% and the President’s Approval has dropped to 42% and the taxpayers are about to bail out yet another bank in Afghanistan (NYTimes), although the White House is denying the later, when has the nation heard that before?
Given the aforementioned, even with pounds of cash (or what is left of the pounds of cash), party star power, and or the SEIU out in force, the face of the Congress and the Senate, will change dramatically this November - with a freshman crop of Senators and Congressional Representatives that may not necessarily have graduated from Yale or Harvard, may not be lawyers, but businessmen, doctors, and regular men and woman who were so disgusted with the direction this country has taken that they’ve dropped lucrative careers, put their lives on hold and went forth as patriots to campaign for seats in both Houses. It is what the founding fathers envisioned, and will be a refreshing change of pace. One can also expect the local newspapers will all endorse the Incumbent running due to their “experience” and the “ability to bring dollars to the various districts”. Missing the point entirely that these two “pluses” by editorial standards, are nothing more than “minuses” in the minds of “today’s voter”.
No comments:
Post a Comment