2010 Control of the Senate - Review Shows GOP within Striking Distance of Taking Both Houses

Politicois suggesting that the fate of the Democrats control of the Senate rests with three Democrats: Feingold (D-WI), Boxer(D-CA) and Murray (D-WA). The premise of the Politico article is that it was thought highly unlikely that the aforementioned would be in any real “danger” of losing a seat held since 1992, the year Bill Clinton was elected. Incidentally, that election preceded the 1994 Republican landslide which saw the GOP take control of both houses.

At that time, the pollsters reviewing the Generic Ballot (a measurement based on a hypothetical choice between the two major political parties), especially Gallup, gave the Republicans a a 5 point lead over their Democrat counterparts. In 2006, the Democrats led by 7 points and today, the GOP leads by an historical 10 points, which is a high point for the party in the history of Gallup polling.

Out of those three chosen by Politico as being on the proverbial chopping block, it is realistic that one, perhaps two will be retired come November: Boxer (D-CA) and Feingold (D-WI).
Statistically, the lead for the GOP may come from other states, currently considered “Leans Democrat”. If one reviews the polls at Real Clear Politics one finds a map that currently shows: Democrats: 44 Safe or not up for reelection versus Republican: 34 safe or not up for reelection, with those states deemed either safe Democrat or safe Republican by the pollsters, pushing the totals to 48 Democrat and 44 Republicans.

It is, according to Real Clear Politics, the Tossups (8) that will determine which party eventually has 51 seats and Control of the Senate. The Toss-Ups are Boxer (D-CA), Bennet (D-CO), Florida (Open-R), Illinois (Open-D), Nevada (Reid-D), Ohio (Open-R), Murray (D-WA), and Fiengold (D-WI). However, it is still early in the game, being August and of those seats at this point, one can realistically see the following play out: Boxer, Bennet, Ohio, and Florida will be leans Republican within the month as will Illinois, Nevada will remain a Toss Up, as will Feingold and Murray.

Open seats are those where no incumbent of either party is running in an election year and Toss-ups are called by a statistical tie in the polls. Real Clear Politics uses a combination of all polls taken in any given race to determine an average. Pollsters include the Daily Kos (leans left) as well as Rasmussen (said to lean right). This blogs preferred pollster is the left leaning Public Policy Polling simply because it leans left, however, has had more accurate outcomes when it comes down to the final stages of a given race. As with all polls, there is plenty of room for error and bias, however, when margins go over 5 points, one can feel fairly safe betting on the outcome based on this pollster.

Polls, therefore, are the political junkie’s version of Reality TV.

There is a poll at Real Clear Politics that currently leans Democrat, which should be moving into the “Toss-up” or Leans Republican column shortly and that is the CT Race between McMahon(R) and Blumenthal (D). Blumenthal had a 34 point lead over Republican Linda McMahon pre-primary, which one post primary poll shows the lead reduced to 7 points, the last poll was taken August 11th.

Therefore, it may not be Patty Murray that tips the balance for the GOP or Russ Feingold for that matter, but an Open CT seat which suddenly turns to the right in early September. At present, states shown as Leans Democrat, have yet to hold primaries (due Sept. 14th), including New York, where Gillibrand holds a 19 to 23 point lead over the three Republican Contenders, comparing New York to Connecticut, where the political landscape is similar, one should watch that race once the primary closes, and the margins begin to tighten.

Based on the above, the GOP stands a better than average chance of picking off the 51 seats needed to take control of the Senate. The story will continue to unfold and tighter polling data should become available 3 weeks out (or 1st Week of October) which will be truly indicative of which party will triumph in 2010. Until then, speculation is base on the polls and unfortunately past state voting trends. With this election, that should not be factored, given the angst against incumbents that has crossed party lines. (See AK, Murkowski)

A Side Note on personal perspectives.
As there are primaries in Massachusetts on the 14th of September, and having gone door to door for a Congressional Candidate, the objective being to introduce the candidate to both Republicans and Independents in an approx. 8 block area that was predominately Democrat. In the process of knocking on doors, the Democrats visited were most enthusiastic – took the literature, and asked in-depth questions about the Candidate. What is telling in this small cross section is that the candidate is a Republican. It may be one small section in one medium sized city, in a blue state, where the “straw that broke the camel’s back” has many Democrats, either committed to or considering voting for a Republican for the first (second in some cases see: Scott Brown), a Republican. As Massachusetts is considered “safe democrat” on all seats, with the exception of the 10th (toss-up), it will be interesting to see if enough interest is generated amongst pollsters after the primary on the 14th to even begin polling – those polls will be indicative of what will happen to those Senate Seats in play. It would go to the general “mood” of the electorate by Party. Also, if one has never gone door to door, it is an eye opening experience as to the number of people who are actually paying attention to what is going on in the political theater.