Monday, July 19, 2010

Focus on Illinois U.S. Senate Seat – Obama to Campaign for Giannoulias – Home Turf Test of Political Capital.


Giannoulias and Obama - Chicago Politico's - image patdollard.com

From Politico Headline: “Obama to stump for Alexi Giannoulias” - details the President’s plan to lend personal support to one Alexi Giannoulias, who would, if elected, replace former Illinois Governor Blagojevich’s appointed interim Senator, Roland Burris in November. Giannoulias will face Republican Congressman Mark Kirk in the November Election – the announcement of Obama’s aid by the Giannoulias Campaign suggested the same tired rhetoric which has voters growing increasingly bored:

The President's visit will reinforce the importance of the clear choice Illinois voters face between Alexi, who supports helping the president move America forward and career Congressman Mark Kirk, who wants to go back to the same failed Bush policies that got us into this mess."



This tells us that either the powers that be are not reading the polls, or the President could lose additional “face” should his personally vacated Senate Seat fall into the hand of a Republican. Apparently, the Republican candidate campaign is in significantly better financial shape than that of Giannoulias, which prompted the Presidential trip to Illinois.

According to the FEC Republican Mark Kirk has raised $6,665,710, dispersed about half and has zero debt, while Giannoulias, has raised 4,783,438, spent two thirds and has a deficit of $150,000 - In viewing contributors to both candidates, one finds Giannoulias receiving donations from Washington Post Attorney David Adams among other notable Illinois Democrats and finally, the Democrat Party has kicked in approximately $25,000.

In reviewing Kirks filing: donations are coming from Homemaker, retirees, physicians and the like, while receiving no report from the RNC - PACs, primarily insurance or health care related, have picked up where the RNC has lagged (or is non-existent).

One can get a snapshot of a candidate and their fiscal philosphy through their disclosures: On the one hand Giannoulias has raised 4.7 million, spent two thirds and has a deficit, while Kirk, has raised 6 million plus, spent half and has zero debt.

Time to call in Obama – will he help?

In the short term Obama has the ability to raise some cash specifically in the town that has consistently shown financial support in abundance for Democrat candidate.

The Chicago Media:

Being Chicago, the Globe (one news outlet) headline speaks to the Giannoulias family bank as being tied to the organized crime
“Giannoulias tries to shake bank issue” with the tag line: “Democrat attacks Kirk for focusing on controversial loans to crime figures”.

What were Giannoulias ties to his family bank? Apparently, the Bank of Giannoulias, made large loans to felons. The article goes on to note that at the same time, the candidate was in a senior position at his family bank, and working toward improving his political chances. (Shame on that Mark Kirk for drawing a conclusion that any second grader might make - something fishy may be afoot with Obama's candidate in the fist place.)

Therefore, you have an Illinois Politician with ties to the mob, who Is not spending wisely, asking for an Obama bailout. Perfect.

It is not all Roses for the Republican Kirk, who is now, according to Public Policy Polling in a statistical tie with Giannoulias, who has a one point lead 31-30 over Kirk. Apparently, a green party candidate is polling at 24% - the article goes on to suggest Illinois Voters are disillusioned. One would think at this point, they should be.



There are cities where crime and politics tend to go hand and hand, Boston for instance - nary a day goes by before some state representative, senator, auditor, or brother of, is indicted, but Chicago takes the cake. Massachustts Citizens have, for the most part, become disgusted enough to maintain a serious interest in several Congressional Races, so much so, that two of which are receiving funds from the NRCC in the form of advertising, which is currently generic, given the fact that the primaries are in September. Come September, should that activity increase, one can bet the house, that at the very least 3 seats will change political hands in Massachusetts.

That said, it remains to be seen if the populace of Illinois has had enough, so to speak, and will move to change the face of the nation – or follow party lines and elect a politicians who is endorsed by Obama, and has family ties to the mob. One would love to see the Vegas Lines on this one.

Enter the “what if”: What if the citizens of the State of Illinois are of a similar mindset to those of Massachusetts? What if, they decide, going into October that they would prefer the “Bush Republican” to the “Obama endorsed candidate? The fact that Obama has not done well on the campaign trial in recent months in either raising funds, crowds, and or the political prospects (especially important) of the individual for whom he stumps, make this particular race all the more interesting. Should the Republican pull this off, and polls remain virtually unchanged (within the margin of error), this leaves Obama in a 2006 Bush Campaign State – in other words, shunned by members of his own party, and looking more like Jimmy Carter by the minute (that’s happening in any case).

The Globes competition, The Chicago Sun Times and their Suburban newspapers group, which touches every hamlet surrounding Chicago, also wrote about the Obama visit, in much the same tone and manner as the Glob what one finds on the Sun Times is in their comment section under the article: “This may just be the "Kiss of Death" for Giannoulias!” Apparently, some in Chicago have been closely following Obama’s track record vis a vis candidates he supports.

Not for nothing, the Blagojevich Trial will begin again with the Defense calling witnesses and having access to FBI tapes that just could change the winds of political fortune in the Windy City as well as Washington, D.C. Giannoulias is reported to be on the “witness list” for the defense.

To get the pulse of Chicago, and this race in particular, one suggests, in addition to the Globe and Sun Times, a visit to http://hillbuzz.org . Hillbuzz, a collaboration blog with a fantastic sense of humor used to deliver fact, has several interesting articles on this particular race.
Only in America – this is why we love this country so deeply! The drama, the intrigue! Reality television just can’t compete with American Politics.

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