Tea Party in Boston, A revolt against Taxes, image: atr.org
A poll released Monday, April 5, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports indicates that by a margin of 48 to 44% the “Tea Party” is viewed more favorably than Obama. A growing number, 63% of those considered “mainstream” (Rasmussen qualifies those as “Populist”), feel that the movements ideology is closer to their own than that of Obama. The Tea Party, as defined, is a multi-politically affiliated group of individuals who are fed up with the current systems use of tax dollars (i.e. the economy) – incumbents, regardless of party affiliation, are looked upon as a non-option for reelection if they had voted to increase government spending at any level. Additionally, only 16% of respondents identified themselves as part of the Tea Party, but are viewed favorably by the majority of respondents compared to the President (or left of center ideology).
Unions are also on the firing line, when compared to Tea Party Ideology, Unions are viewed at 33% favorability compared to the 45% who chose the Tea Party. The problem for Unions today, they are seen as closely tied to both the administration and the Democrat Party, and part of the tax and spend process. Obama’s own popularity in recent polls, suggest his approval slipping further after singing the health care reform bill: CBS News Poll April 2, 2010 – 44% approval, Gallop showed a rise from 44% on March 14 to 51% on March 21st attributing the rise in approval to the Health Care Reform Bill, (plus or minus 4% for the margin of error on most polls), Marist has Obama’s approval at 46% as of March 31st, and the balance found at Real Clear Politics gives the President a 47% overall combined polls approval.
Those most likely to disapprove are the unenrolled or independent that are deemed necessary to win elections. These are the voters who are in the “middle”, neither too left or too right. As expected, partisan ideology is present in all polls with the majority of Democrats approving of the Presidents performance, while the majority of Republicans disapprove.
What this means for November is simply put, incumbents, regardless of party, are in trouble if they voted on legislation seen as adding or projected to add, an additional burden to the deficit. Should an incumbent represent a State or Commonwealth as either a Senator or Congressional Representative, and should that State or Commonwealth have a large share of independent or unenrolled voters, then retirement is likely. Massachusetts, is a case in point, the Commonwealth’s electorate is represented by over 50% unenrolled or independent – newly elected Senator Scott Brown (Republican) was pushed over top by those unenrolled (and yes moderate Democrats who are aligning with the Tea Party in the Bay State), and Brown, one can be assured was not an anomaly. There are, at present, with one or two exceptions, competitive House races in every district in Massachusetts. Those, outside the Commonwealth, who follow sites such as CQ Politics will find that Massachustts is considered “Safe Democrat”, as was the January 19th Special Election. The problem lies in the fact that most pundits do not factor in the electoral makeup of the Bay State (or other States) when making these projections.
The one safe District in Massachustts is that held by John Olver, the large 1st Congressional District, the remainder, from the 2nd Hampden (Richard Neal), to the Massachustts 4th (Barney Frank), one can find all races at FEC.gov showing incumbents facing challengers from Republican, Independent and Democrats. With the mood in Massachusetts (and the balance of the nation) remaining the same, it is conceivable that Commonwealth, may not longer be the “Bluest State” come November.
Where are the polls? Massachusetts, and like States when usually considered “Safe Democrat” are not polled, unless and until, the writing in on the wall that an incumbent and/or political party is about to be up-ended. Pollsters began looking at the Brown-Coakley race a mere 2 weeks prior to the election when it was apparent that there was an actual race taking place. One can anticipate the same may occur with all Congressional races in Massachusetts as well as California. Should there be one pollster who does take that leap, will find that all is not “safe” in these blue bastions, and should also look to others across the country that may be considered solidly held, by one party or the other, (in the case where an incumbent voted for any legislation that, again, put taxpayers dollars on the line.)
It is the ideology of less government and self government that is driving voters away from “usual” and towards the beginnings of a “civilian” run government. With the President and members of Congress, as well as the Unions, all spotlighted continuously in the media as broadening and supporting the broadening of government, it will, in the end, result in a change that is long overdue and that would serve all political parties to take note.
No comments:
Post a Comment