2010 Senate Members up For Reelection - Numbers and Brand do not Favor Dems in 2010

What are the odds of the Republican Party picking up enough Senate Seats to take control of the U.S. Senate? The pundits all agree that the current 59 Democrats that hold the Senate for the DNC represent and insurmountable lead of 18 seats, with only a third of the Senate up for reelection in 2010, it appears almost impossible.

\A basic civics lesson: Those whose terms expire in 2011 (running for office is 2010) are Class III Senators. The senate is split into “classes” by the Constitution. The definition from Senate.gov

class - Article I, section 3 of the Constitution requires the Senate to be divided into three classes for purposes of elections. Senators are elected to six-year terms, and every two years the members of one class—approximately one-third of the Senators—face election or reelection. Terms for Senators in Class I expire in 2013, Class II in 2015, and Class III in 2011.

Unless of course, there is a special election, someone retires, or a temporary replacement calls for an election. 2010 has a mix of all of the above scenarios.

The following democrats will be up for reelection in 2010: Bayh, Evan - (D - IN), Bennet, Michael F. - (D - CO), Boxer, Barbara - (D - CA), Burris, Roland W. - (D - IL), Dodd, Christopher J. - (D - CT), Dorgan, Byron L. - (D - ND), Feingold, Russell D. - (D - WI), Gillibrand, Kristin – (D-NY) (though appointment to the Senate she is defending her seat in off cycle) Inouye, Daniel K. - (D - HI), Leahy, Patrick J. - (D - VT), Lincoln, Blanche L. - (D - AR), Mikulski, Barbara A. - (D - MD), Murray, Patty - (D - WA), Reid, Harry - (D - NV), Schumer, Charles E. - (D - NY), Specter, Arlen - (D - PA) and Wyden, Ron - (D - OR) – the total Democrats up for re-election is 18 – out of those 1 Bayh, Dorgan, and Dodd have already announced they would not seek reelection.

Assuming polls coming in this early are indicative of the outcome (highly improbable), Real Clear Politics, which is a compilation of all available pollsters, regardless of political lean – the following seats are probable pick-ups for the Republican Party: Bennet, CO, Spector, PA, Reid, NV, (Boxer,noted as safe (for now), Gillibrand, NY (safe in primary, not safe in general election), Lincoln, AR, Delaware (special election) Biden (announced he will not run), Connecticut (currently considered “safe democrat”) – the balance having not been polled. This give a GOP advantage in 8 seats, add Bayh’s retirement in a GOP leaning state (#9) and Dorgan in a similar situation (#10). Last but not least, the Illinois Senate Race – (trending for now, Republican – but considered : Safe Democrat) total: 11.

Seats on the Republican side that are in question are retiree: Gregg Judd, NH, where Republican’s lead in poling, and Florida’s LeMieux, who was appointed to the seat by Govenor Christ, who is also running for the seat – it will remain Republican.
On the Republican Side: Bond, Christopher S. - (R - MO), Bennett, Robert F. - (R - UT), Brownback, Sam - (R - KS), Bunning, Jim - (R - KY), Burr, Richard - (R - NC), Coburn, Tom - (R - OK), Crapo, Mike - (R - ID), DeMint, Jim - (R - SC), Grassley, Chuck - (R - IA), Gregg, Judd - (R - NH), Isakson, Johnny - (R - GA), LeMieux, George S. - (R - FL), McCain, John - (R - AZ), Murkowski, Lisa - (R - AK), Shelby, Richard C. - (R - AL), Thune, John - (R - SD), Vitter, David - (R - LA) and Voinovich, George V. - (R - OH)

Therefore, as it stands now, the Republicans can conceivably (remember pundits say no) pick up 11 Senate Seats, which would give the senate a makeup of: 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats. (This assumes no additional retirements, election year scandals)

It is extremely early in terms of 2010 polling, where the real numbers won’t begin to take shape until October, however, prior to that insight can be gained from consistent polls (Nevada), national trends, and a bit of guessing, thrown in for good measure.

In writing from Massachusetts, where a Boston Globe poll gave then Senate Candidate Martha Coakley a 15 point lead over Republican Challenger Scott Brown, less than week before the election (and this poll was added into the mix of polls at Real Clear Politics)- a state where every pundit, radio, television or otherwise, conservative or liberal was nay saying Brown’s ability to win, and hoping it was “close”, (yet continually denying the fact that Brown could win.) One has to be prepared for a few more upsets, specifically with the steady stream of retirements taking place on an almost daily basis, regardless of party (although more Democrats than Republicans in the scheme of things). No seat is “Safe Democrat” in a year where the brand has gone bad. Brown was only the first, of many who will emerge to stun pundits in 2010.