Monday, October 19, 2009

Rasmussen: GOP Likely Voters Choose Huckabee over Romney – Women Prefer Huckabee - 81% strongly believes next President will be a Republican.


Polls Indicate GOP Change in Attitude - image next right

Rasmussenreleased a second GOP 2012 poll result yesterday which paired Mike Huckabee against 2008 campaign rival Mitt Romney. In this scenario Huckabee received 44% to Romney’s 39%, with Huckabee leading Romney in the women’s vote. Both Huckabee and Romney have maintained high profiles since the 2008 election; both affiliated with PAC’s that have, to date, aided Republican candidates across the nation, building alliances for the 2012 contest. That said, Rasmussen rightly cautions that it is early in the game, citing the 2008 early polls that produced Hillary Clinton as the frontrunner, with Obama unknown at the time. The same could be said of the 2012 Republican field, which had Giuliani as a frontrunner, giving one the understanding that there is still time for candidates to come forward to represent both major political parties. One thing that is not being touted in this particular poll (and the preceding GOP poll) is the high rate of confidence among GOP voters that the next president will be a Republican – 81% strongly believe this to be the case. This begs the question; if the Republican Party is demoralized and in dire straits, as suggested by most media outlets, then why the high level of confidence?

While again, it is early in Barak Obama’s administration, his favorable ratings continue to drop and/or remain stagnant. As of Sunday only 29% of those polled give Obama strong approval ratings, and the President is facing a tough branding battle with two 2009 gubernatorial races, New Jersey, where the Democrat Incumbent has rebounded in the past few weeks in the polls against his Republican opponent, who still holds a slim lead. In Virginia, the Incumbent Democrat has up to an 11 point deficit (depending upon which poll one subscribes to), with few weeks left to make headway. The incumbent Deeds, is bringing in Obama in an effort to “get out the vote” in the heavily Democrat north eastern Virginia region. Should this particular seat fall to the Republican challenger, Bob McDonnell, it will be a scathing rejection of the Democrat Brand and will act as harbinger of the 2010 election. As it now stands, key influential Democrat, Harry Reid is being trounced by not one, but two Republican’s prior to any primary. Early polls from Real Clear Politics, see Republican’s leading in almost all races, which, would be an historical correction with regards to the Congress. (The Congress ebbs and flows between those two major parties every 6 to 8 years.) It may be beyond the “Rock Star Status” of Barack Obama to maintain Virginia as a Blue State, historically speaking.

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