AP-GFK Poll - Republicans More Vested in Current GOP Fieldtes – 43% Dems Included in Poll – Missing: Obama Clearly Unelectable

From AP-GFK Poll Toplines: Democrats Leaning Towards Republican Candidates - Image: From APGFK Poll PDF Toplines


From the Miami Herald – the Headline: “AP-GfK Poll: Most Republicans happy with GOP field” belies the fact that the majority of those polled were Democrat, or Democrat leaning Independents. The Poll toplines can be found here in PDF. Those with the highest favorability ratings in this particular schematic are: Rudy Giuliani at 50%, Michele Bachman at 35%, Mitt Romney at 39%, Sarah Palin at 36%, Ron Paul at 37% and Rick Perry at 33%. Rudy Guiliani taking a substantial lead in a Republican poll as an unannounced candidate gave this blogger pause. As a result, a closer look at the Toplines revealed the fact that 32% of those polled as Republican’s included only 9% “Strong Republican, as opposed to 43% of Democrats at 13% Strong Democrat, which skews the poll results if, in fact, this poll headline suggests a Republican poll only. That said, with favorability ratings at above 32%, one understands that Democrats are engaged in the GOP candidates. Are they more likely Tea Party Members? The Tea Party, much maligned by the press as well as the Administration and Democrat Congressional Reps and Senators, attract more moderate Democrats and Independents – although no official polling has been done, Tea Party Groups are a mixture of political ideology and parties, all however, are vested the Constitution and Fiscal Restraint, which attributes can be attributed to either major political party moderates.

However, if those Democrats polled are vested in Republican Candidates, across the board, then one has to ponder the fact that up to 18% of Democrats are seriously looking at the GOP field. If this schematic is accurate, any one of the GOP nominees would be the next President, which is in line with Generic Ballots from Rasmussen August, 23, 2011 Generic Presidential Ballot 2012, where any Republican bests the President by a margin of 48%, to 43% (Obama).

In addition, as of this week Gallup’s Presidential Weekly Job Approval, shows Obama holding steady at 40%, which is a low point for the administration. In addition, most pollsters understand that there is a 5 point deficit to that poll, including the margin of error. At this point in time, should the economy fare worse or maintain its current status over the next three to six months, it is highly improbable that Obama will be reelected.

Moreover, the AP/GFK poll headline should have read: “Across the Board, Democrats and Republicans are more Interested in the GOP field than in previous months” – a more accurate headline, however, unlikely to get any attention from the press.

Obama Golf’s on “Miss Me Yet” Bush T-shirt Infested Vineyard, Rick Perry Rockets To Top of Gallup GOP Polling – Analysis and Satire

While the Polls Turn - Obama on the Vineyard - image Golf.com



The President is on Martha’s Vineyard, whereaccording to the AP, he’s finished an island tri-fecta, playing three courses during this vacation. It’s not all fun and games for the President, he was also briefed on Hurricane Irene, which computer models now show is headed directly towards New England (and the Vineyard). This trip, “Miss Me Yet” George W. Bush T-Shirts, have made their return to the New England exclusive playground, replacing pro-Obama gear in the gift shops - Ouch.


Recent Update on Path of Irene - Image My Fox Dallas

While Obama was out playing golf, Rick Perry, Govenor of Texas and GOP Presidential Candidate, managed to zip to the top of the charts of the most recent Gallup Poll, knocking out Romney as front-runner. The poll included Republican’s and Republican “leaning” independents, who preferred Perry to the other candidates listed (in order of choice): Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Tim Pawlenty, with other and No Preference drawing the majority of the responses.

Perry bests the other candidates in the following categories: men and women, 30 to 65 plus, (Ron Paul leads the 18 Plus with 29%, however, Perry comes in second with 21% to Romney’s 11%), Perry leads the Midwest, the South and the West, and virtually tying the Northeast! Romney does best among Liberal to Moderates, while Perry cleans house among Conservatives. An Interesting category was added as the last question: Church attendance and frequency thereof. Perry leads across the board, whether that voter attends church weekly or not at all. One has to ask, what’s religion got to do with a GOP Presidential Race and when was that question last poised to those being polled regarding a Democrat? Is it a relevant question? Yes, only in the sense that it now indicates Perry appeals to a broad spectrum of those who may or may not step foot in a church, synagogue, mosque or what have you. This also opens up a whole can of worms when it comes to tagging Perry as over-religious – watch the Debate questions yet to come: Guaranteed for Perry: “What would Jesus do?”



That aside perhaps the most telling statistic in this poll: the large number who previously had no preference (or other) in May: 31% has dropped to 19% in August – which is still a considerable portion of those that would pull the lever for anyone who is on the ticket. (Moderate to Conservative Democrats were not included in this poll – and it is not without some curiosity as to how these numbers would have stacked up in a broad based demographic.

To sum it up, Obama is on Vacation on an island targeted by a large hurricane, he left Washington ahead of a large and rare earthquake, Rick Perry, perhaps the most conservative of the “Tea Party” and GOP contenders both socially and fiscally, is leading the pack of Obama’s replacements (although not a foregone conclusion, the Presidents Poll numbers make his reelection highly improbable at this point), and, of course, the elephant not in the room: Palin, who looks almost moderate in comparison, has yet to make a firm commitment of any sort. Notes: Palin did endorse Perry for his reelection to the Texas Governorship. Lastly, Republican’s, Republican Leaning Independents and possibly Moderate Democrats who were not polled, would prefer any of the Republicans to the current office holder, giving new meaning to “Generic Republican bests Obama Polls” (see Rasmussen where anyone of the above mentioned would best Obama by 5 points in a general election (if it were held this week).

President Obama – Polls Continue to Slide Into Carter Terrorist, The GOP Options, Polling on Perry, Palin, Romney – Parsing the Polls

The battle for 2012 polling favors Republican (unnamed) image Media.eyeblast

Looking at a wide range of polls at the beginning of the week, Rasmussen Polling (Conservative Trend), has the Generic (unnamed) Republican Candidate besting Obama by a 5 Point Lead, with seven percent of those polls undecided. In the Republican Field Sarah Palin, who is not a confirmed candidate (as speculation is rampant that she will enter), polls below Obama by 50% to 33%, with 15% preferring some other candidate and 2% undecided. At first glance, those are dismal numbers, however, Palin has an announcement that will end the speculation sometime in September (possibly), at that point, polling Sarah Palin will matter, at this point, it is basically gives the appearance that Obama can best someone with a GOP “brand”.

However, to lend some form of sanity to the polling process employed by Rasmussen, his latest poll shows Congressman Ron Paul, perennial straw poll winner, in a statistical tie with Obama. This begs the question: How did Rasmussen find all those random Ron Paul Supporters? Alternately, How bad is the state of the nation when Paul, a perennial Congressman from the State of Texas, a Libertarian leaning Republican who would close borders, and let the world implode, while focusing only on the Fed, ties the field?

Gallup Polling shows Obama’s daily approval at 38%, and Gallup would be considered a “Conservative Pollster”, (Conservative in this instance meaning cautious), this screams Carter territory with no chance for Reelection. Gallup on the GOP Field in General includes both those announced and unannounced, with Texas Governor, Rick Perry, who declared last week, rising in name Recognition. Of the top tier in name recognition: Palin leads, followed by Giuliani, Romney, Gingrich, Bachman, Ron Paul, Perry, Santorum, Cain and at the bottom of the pack Huntsman. Of those in this poll, the top two most recognized, have not yet declared. In reality, this is a meteoric rise for the Texas Governor, considering a week has passed since the buzz began.

In viewing the entire field on Gallup’s Main 2012 page, which includes all candidates (and not yet announced) in a file that can be exported, one finds that Palin’s approval stands (percentages), strongly favorable, 24%, favorable, 45%, unfavorable: 18% and strongly unfavorable 10%, she comes in third overall, behind declared candidate Herman Cain, who holds first in this poll, and Rick Perry, again in his first week out. What this indicates, is more than who is raising or falling in the ranks, but what type of candidate impresses GOP, a non-political class candidate, or more to the point “Tea Party” candidate.

Public Policy Polling (unapologetic, Democrat Leaning Pollster), latest National Poll, shows Mitt Romney statistically tied with Barack Obama, followed by Rick Perry (down 6 points from the President), Michelle Bachmann, (down by 9 points), and Cain (down by 10 points, but up from the previous week). Again, Palin in put into the mix, polling at 40% to Obama’s 53%, that said, the pollster indicates those numbers are up from 53 to 37% (Obama Palin respectively) in their last national poll. .

What this tells us is that three different pollsters, with differing ideological (or non in the case of Gallup) bents, all showing Palin in the field, along with Giuliani, and for unannounced Candidates, they poll well (despite what the pundits may spin). Name Recognition and favorability combined in all polls, continues to trend towards those candidates most recognized as Tea Party, which includes Palin, Cain and Perry. In other words, they are sick and tired of the Political Class.

The last words on Palin comes from Fox contributor and pollster Dick Morris and American Spectator’s Robert Stacy McCain, who’s headline “Still Waiting for Sarah”, is a must read. This is a first-hand account of events in Iowa by a journalist who apparently went more than the extra mile to try and ferret out the scoop on Sarah is an interesting take on the “will she or won’t she” media frenzy surrounding Palin.

Dick Morris TV Lunch Alert, is a mix of barbs at Palin (and women in general), with a special note to Palin saying, stay out of the race, on the one hand, as she is “damaged goods” due to intense media scrutiny, (seriously, he said that), and secondly, that it would be interesting if she did enter the race so there would be a “girls primary”. Seriously he said that as well. One cannot tell if Morris has a horse in this race or not, but Morris on reading tea leaves (or polls) has a record that is somewhat mixed.