Gallop Poll Obama Approval high in 10 States – Projection: 2012 Adjusted Electoral College Map: Obama: 191, Unnamed Republican: 337

A Gallup survey on President Obama’s approval rating in 2010 (available here) headlines his high approval rating in Hawaii, and 9 other states, however, the balance fall below 50%, with 20 states listed as average: approval between 44 and 48%, the balance of the 30 states are at 43% and below, giving an outline of the possible 2012 presidential outcome. (See Map below)



Should these approval rankings stay at present levels, and translate into 2012 Electoral College results, Obama, the incumbent would garner 195 Electoral College votes, needed to remain in office: 270
(See hypothetical 2012 Electoral College Map Below from www270towin.com)



Additionally, the level of Electoral College votes will change with the 2010 census, as districts are redrawn and certain states having lost population will also lose seats in the Electoral College. The New York Times has an interactive map on Electoral College votes here (See Map Below).



In this scenario: Texas gains 4, Arizona 1, Utah 1, Nevada 1, Georgia and South Carolina 1 each, and Florida 2, or a pickup of 11 for the unnamed Republican, on the incumbent side: Washington gains 1 for the incumbent: The total now becomes: 196 to 343 (R). The States that lose Electoral College vote are: Iowa, Missouri and Louisiana (all minus 1), Michigan and Ohio minus 3, for a total of minus 6 for the Republican or 337. States in the Obama approval hypothetical that lose seats are: Pennsylvania 1, New Jersey 1, New York 2 and Massachusetts one, or a net loss of 5, giving the incumbent a total of 191 Electoral College votes.

Given the current state of Foreign Affairs, (Middle East), the threat of 26% inflation in food and clothing in 2011, and the immediate rise of the price per gallon of gasoline, added to a stagnant unemployment rate near 9%, it is somewhat conservative to use the Gallup 2010 approval as part of a hypothetical projection. Given the results, it would behoove the nation to look carefully at any and all Republican Candidates as it is, based on the above scenario, probable that one of them would be the 45th President of the United States.

As the GOP Presidential candidate field has also been hypothetical based on who may run, or who has hinted at a run, it is unlikely that the nation will have a clear idea of who the candidates will be prior to possibly June of 2011. There is more to weigh in this particular instance for anyone who is remotely interested in running than whom they may or may not be able to best, as the 45th President will inherit a scenario that appears Carteresque and one that might have made Ronald Reagan take pause. That said, the candidates that do emerge will have a clear understanding of just how desperate the situation may be, and how Reagan, although elected twice in what can only be considered landslides, (given the fact that he took Massachusetts twice), lost popularity while putting the nation back together over a 3 year period. It goes without saying that these candidates will have to put political ambitions aside, and have a pure desire to right the course of the nation, and the knowledge to do so, as in an individual who has had the experience of Governing a State, as opposed to an individual who has been invested in the legislative side of government.

Mike Huckabee, an increasingly potential GOP 21012 candidate, cautioned recently that Obama would be difficult to beat, but not impossible, and he is right – it will be the candidate chosen by the GOP and GOP leaning independents (and possibly some Democrats) that will either instill confidence in a weary public, or not. Additionally, as Obama’s campaign manager uses the Massachusetts model of “How to elect Deval Patrick” and apply that to the Obama campaigns, one must watch for a third party candidate (i.e. Trojan Horse). Suggest reading treatments of the 2010 Gubernatorial race narrowly won by Deval Patrick over Republican Charlie Baker (by 2 points), with the Democrat turned Independent, Tim Cahill, increasing Patrick’s chances which ultimately gave the Governor with the lowest possible approval rating in Massachusetts a second term.

2012 Update – Mike Huckabee Book Tour Begins, Has Not Ruled Out Presidential Run, Shades of 2007

Huckabee, The Book that Will Decide the 2012 Run - image Amazon

CNNblogs article on Mike Huckabee’s recent book release, “Huckabee Ready To Test His Message”, offers a glimpse at 2012 with the following:

"It kind of gives me an opportunity to take that message to the people rather than to wait to be one of 12 people on a debate stage getting four minutes worth of questions," Huckabee said.

Another look at the 2012 future of Mike Huckabee comes from the DesMoine Register:

"Part of the process is to be able to gauge reaction to the message," Huckabee said of the book, titled "A Simple Government." "And the message in this book is very much a part of helping me determine if there's interest in what I stand for.”

That is a direct statement regarding his serious consideration of a presidential run in 2012, and how he is framing the basis for a decision to run. No need for tea leaves here, as there are striking similarities between Huckabee's response to this release of ”A Simple Government, Twelve Things We Really Need from Washington, and a Trillion We Don’t and his 2007 release of the book: “From Hope to Higher Ground, My Vision for Restoring America’s Greatness in 12 steps, which drew this response from reporters who queried Govenor Huckabee on the 2008 Presidential race: “Former Arkansas Gov Mike Huckabee said for weeks he d decide on a White House run if he got a positive reaction to his new book From Hope to Higher Ground “

Mike Huckabee, who is currently polling very well nationwide is hypothetical matchups, is one of the best candidates in a field of “hypothetical’s”, having run a state government for two and a half terms, and having been able to improve the state of Arkansas on many levels, including streamlining the DMV, balancing budgets, improving schools, and treating the office of the Govenor, not as his personal territory, rather as belong to the people of the State. A bigger plus for music fans: He pardoned Keith Richards. The man has a track record, and although there are detractors who will point out two or three instances in a 12 year term as Govenor, that are somewhat dubious to begin with as “slurs” on Huckabee, the fact remains that few can match his record on governing.

His move to Fox News, as a commentator, as well as his weekly radio ala Steve Harvey addresses, and now, his book tour, with subsequent pre-tour national television interviews, puts Mike Huckabee in practically every living room in the country – people get to know Mike Huckabee, they recognize him, and in polls conducted in those “hypothetical 2012 match-ups”, his favorability ratings are consistently high.

He has name recognition, and he also has the underdog factor: Enter Mitt Romney, former one term Massachusetts Govenor, and 2008 Presidential candidate. It is no secret that some enmity was present during the 2008 campaign. Romney and Huckabee are two very different personas, Huckabee more down to earth and Romney with an appearance of being “carefully packaged” (either fairly or unfairly). When it came to the Iowa Causes, Romney spent millions to Huckabee’s thousands, and Huckabee pulled out a stunning win – the fact that he was able to be that likeable, credible, and on a shoestring candidate, made Huckabee the perfect candidate for a campaign that was doomed from the beginning (2012) as the Republican Brand was so badly damaged, from Congressional races to the race for President, it was doubtful from 2007 that success would be a word used in any Republican race.

Times change and 2012 puts all Republicans in better brand shape. In the terms of branding, Huckabee is perhaps, in better shape as of this moment than any other candidate. Those who shop in advance for someone to support, regardless of party, and in the case of 2012, because of the perceived weakness of the Obama presidency by Democrats, Independents and Republicans alike, Huckabee is one who is repeatedly chosen as a President those shoppers could live with. It is the understanding that in each Presidential election there will be winners and losers, and Huckabee makes no bones about how hard campaigns can be, and that, just perhaps, President Obama may not be quite so easy to best (based perhaps on money, but.. money can’t buy a nations love), however, he’s sitting in the cat bird seat right now.

How long before Huckabee announced the formation of an exploratory committee and will it be “too late” according to those Beltway pundits who rarely get “it” right? One would hazard to estimate that following the book tour, which apparently ends on March 3rd, of 2011 Huckabee’s announcement could come as early as May, 2011, although he’s mentioned June as a “deadline” on more than one occasion (merely a month later). What Huckabee gains by waiting: an opportunity to get out and meet and greet in key states (see the tour list), valuable face time on the nations cable and news networks, talk shows, et al., and the ability to weigh the candidates who will have announced. Additionally, there were only two GOP debates in 2007 before June, the balance of the 18 televised debates held after August 2007. (Source, complete with video of each debate, worth revisiting – http://wwwyoudecidepolitics.com/2007/06/13-ful-2008-debate-schedule-from-dnc-and-gop-vice-mccain-obama-palin-biden-video-democrat-republican.)

Will Huckabee run in 2012? He hasn’t said no, and he hasn’t said yes, but his book, “Simple Government”, and subsequent tour schedule, certainly indicates his clear intentions to “seriously” weigh a run, and should his new book, not unlike the 2007 model, prove to be popular with those in Florida, Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma et al, then Huckabee will indeed be the peoples candidate in 2012.

The Return of the Misery Index – Obama Now Faces Inflation and Unemployment to Mimic Carter’s Administration.

Food and fuel prices continue to rise each monthas consumers feel the pinch, at the pump as well as the local grocery store. The Consumer Price index has risen 1.6% in the last two months, which on the face of it, appears to be a minimal increase (WWLP- Springfield), however, with wholesale prices rising (Reuters), across the board inflation is eminent.

When inflation begins to climb, and that rate is added to the unemployment rate, one is experiencing what is known as the “misery index”, which is a combination of both the rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. At no time in history has this been more severe than under former President Jimmy Carter, the eventual outcome was a one-term Carter Presidency and the beginning of the Reagan Era.
To date, President Obama has followed the Carter model in all aspects of governing, it should, therefore, come as no surprise, should he encounter a misery index to equal Carters.

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