Monday, September 30, 2013
2016 Polling - Democrats Shopping – Republicans Trend Constitutionalist
Most likely not to be reelected or elected according to current polling Clinton, McCain, Reid - Image from AP photo's
Of course it’s too early to start awarding any single “contestant” for the 2016 Presidential Race, but early speculation always fuels the news, and polling suggests trends in the rank and file of political parties as to which way the winds might be blowing – which, of course, are always subject to change. As of this past week two polls emerged – one Republican and one Democrat and Republican. One the Republican Side Public Policy Polling came out of the gate with the newest, high profile “potential” candidates, and the results were: Ted Cruz at 20%, Rand Paul at 17%, Chris Christie at 13%, “11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and Scott Walker.” – The pollster noted that Ted Cruz had gained 8% over a previous poll, additionally, on questions of trust, he was the most trusted of the politicians, including Senator Mitch McConnell, and, of course, John McCain was obviously not trusted at all. This particular poll, offered a 734 pool of likely Republican Voters, the majority, 39%, of whom considered themselves “very conservative’, with the next largest group 37% considering themselves as “somewhat conservative” – suggesting that the polling was in sync with any political parties makeup (the balance of those polled, were moderate, liberal or somewhat liberal).
Looking at the poll the trend is obviously toward “new faces” – not so much those who ran in 2012 – or were considered “potentially to run” in 2012. Specifically of interest was the poor showing of Rick Santorum. The reasoning is generally that the GOP has a history of picking the individual who did not make it in the prior election cycle, and boosting that person over other newer entrants. Examples: John McCain, who’s only rival in the run for President multiple times, was Congressman Ron Paul – however, McCain was given the nod over much better candidates in 2008, while Mitt Romney (perhaps a decent man but a horrible candidate for the GOP) was given the nod in 2012. The conventional wisdom of those in GOP think tanks has been and continues to be that any candidate they propose will eventually bring round the base – as well as those independents and a few democrats. This strategy did not work very well in 2008, nor in 2012. It was also, true, that there was not a strong contender in the bunch in both political seasons.
What this poll initially tells the political junkie and those that hope to keep their jobs in DC is simple – the fiscal conservative, Libertarians, tend to do better with the base now, rather than a political heavyweight that has lived and breath D.C.
Interestingly enough, a new poll from the The Des Moines Register Poll, on Political Ideology suggests the same results as that of Public Policy Polling on the GOP side – that Fiscal Conservatives and Libertarians will be the major players in 2016,
On the other side of the aisle – the Democrat polling found similar results Alhtough Hillary Clinton leads by 41%, the numbers are split on the type of figure they would like to see as a constant – 49 percent suggest someone not of Washington, while 48% would choose “Washington Experience
Therefore, to a lesser degree, but at least to an extent, the GOP rank and file and the DNC rank and file are both trending anti-Washington Experience, the Republican’s to a great degree.
As times marches forward, towards 2014 and 2015, the polls may change slightly, the faces certainly will change, but the underlying trends, pending a reversal of positions on both sides on listening to Constituents, the strong candidates will be – new faces. One might even go so far as to suggest more Libertarian minded positions – or at least those who would compromise – the key.
Although the media is beating their breasts over Ted Cruz, and maligning him to the umpth degree, what is making Cruz so popular with the base is his lack of regard for DC and his desire to help the people, he also is known to praise both Democrats and Republicans (with the exception of those in the McCain mold), similar to his Democrat Counterpart - Tom Udall, of New Mexico, who stood with Rand Paul, on common ground with ideology on the use of Drones on US Citizens.
This is what the nation is seeking – those who might not tow the party line, rather step of from under the shadow of Harry Reid and Company – As Majority Leader in the Senate, Reid, and his counterpart Boehner are truly the most powerful individuals in the nation. Reid more so as the House can pass all the bills it desires, and Reid has the power to move them forwarder in the Senate, or not. He uses that power without a thought to compromise, and has done so consistently throughout his tenure.
One might think that Cruz is perfect for Presidential contests, however, there is another position to which he may be better suited – Majority Leader of the Senate – one is under the impression the august body of the Senate would return to debate rather than the stalemate that has existed since the Daschle regime was ousted and the Reid Regime took control.
Regardless of who sits in the Oval office, all of that person’s power rests in the hands of the two aforementioned positions in the Congresses. Therefore, the real races will be those for reelection of the Senate and the Congress – and those will be the races worth watching. It will determine who fares well in the 2016 presidential race, should the old guard be ousted for new constitutionally, and progressive faces, then one should not be surprised.