Tuesday Elections – Will they be Predictive of 2010? Analysis VA, NJ, NY 23, California 10th and the Massachusetts Special Election - Senate Race

On Tuesday, four states are holding elections that have the eyes of the nation’s pundits and political party analysts doing a bit of hand-wringing. The Virginia Governor’s race is all but a foregone conclusion (these deductions are based on poll data from Real Clear Politics) with the race for Governor’s (and the balance of the majority of the State’s offices) going Republican. In New Jersey, it remains too close to call, as those same polls have either Corzine or Christie, up by any number of points, with Dagget, the independent in the mix; that said, the majority of the polls favor Christie, which in that Democrat stronghold, should Christie emerge as the victor, that is a real coup for the Republican Party.

The New York 23rd district and the California 10th are in play due to congressional representatives taking positions within the Obama administration. The New York 10th is being watched as it’s a drama based race, the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, bowed out of the race due to low poll numbers and has endorsed the Democrat, over Conservative Doug Hoffman. One can, given that last minute endorsement which, as her core constituency was those who would vote Republican, for the most part, those votes should transfer to either Hoffman and/or voters may still give Scozzafava the vote – whether it counts or no. In that race, like New Jersey, polls are up and down, that said; – consider that race, to likely go to Hoffman (based on those Scozzafava voters who would only vote Republican, pulling the lever for a like-minded Conservative.

Additionally, the California 10th, which has been underreported, finds the latest local news poll (CBS 5) with Democrat Garamendi up by 10 points over the Republican Harmer. Under most circumstances one would assume, given that the district is considered solid Democrat, that the Democrat would basically run away with the seat – however, something is afoot – certain conservative PAC;s have turned their attention to the 10th (and the NY 23rd and the New Jersey Governor’s race) in the past 48 hours.

This can only indicate one thing – the GOP nor for that matter any conservative, is never known to throw “good money after bad” – they may “smell blood” – If Harmon doesn’t outright win the election, then the fact that he comes within striking distance of the Democrat in this particular district is a real signal as to how hard the Democrats must work to keep their jobs in 2010.

Historically speaking, the house changes hand every three to four terms (or 4 to six years) – As the Democrats have controlled both houses since 2006, historical logic dictates that it is probable a change is going to occur giving Republican’s the edge. Therefore, two of the four races, historically would go Republican (the same is true for state Governors, a back and forth between political parties is the norm) that said, should three or all four of the races turn to the “right”, then that would herald something a bit more interesting, a shift in the mindset of the voting populace towards the right. Once the dust clears, it will be interesting to see how these states and districts voted by party affiliation – as it may not only be a rejection of the Democrat by Republicans (given), or Independents (looking increasingly given) but by the rank and file (moderates) of the Democrat Party).

If the GOP or the NRSC throw anything at all to the Special Election in Massachusetts in January, then the handwriting will be further imprinted upon the wall. In the special election to replace Ted Kennedy, a primary battle of some media magnitude is being hard fought by the Democrats, Coakley, Capuano and Pagliuca and Khaezi, as of this writing that, although the GOP has a viable candidate in Republican Scott Brown, he must face a primary from Jackie Robinson, who filed signatures last week . Should Brown win the primary in December (which give his grassroots campaign and Robinson’s lack thereof), if the NRSC and the GOP start to throw anything at all in Brown’s direction, that will signal more than an historical electoral pattern. Although, many pundits are now calling this race, “safe” by virtue of Massachusetts being Massachusetts, this is the next race to watch as far as the state of mind of the voting electorate. Should Brown receive any support from the RNC (NRSC) and become the second Republican Senator in over 3 decades from Massachusetts, that will be clearly indicative of the mind of the electorate, and the end to purely party driven voting for at the very least the 2010 and possibly 2012 cycles.