Will Today’s Elections Be Driven not by Party but General Political Ideology? The California 10th Congressional District - Bellwether

The majority of headlines today are asking if several key races are a referendum on either the President, or either major Political Party, however, with voter turnout expected to be low on every level, it may be that when the dust settles, the outcomes will be a referendum on “business as usual”. One can pretty much assess (given the poll data) that Virginia will fall to the Republican Party, given McDonnell’s 14 point advantage over Deeds. In New Jersey, it’s nobody’s call, polls vary widely, with Corzine up by 2 points in one, and Christie up by 6 in another, independents (or those that refuse to answer) will determine that particular race. The New York 23rd Congressional District is likely to go to New York Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Although Hoffman is running as a Conservative, it was only due to the fact that a Republican State Committee nominated liberal leaning Dede Scozzafava, without holding a primary. The actions of a few local party committee members have led the media (including conservative pundits) to lay the Scozzafava debacle at the feet of the entire Republican Party – which, in fact, Hoffman’s success is and will be dependent upon all voters in that district, specifically the independent (or unenrolleds) who are leaning Conservative nationwide.

The California 10th will be the wild card in this political horserace, with the Democrat candidate, Garamendi, leading Republican Currently, David Harmer by 10 points. The poll, which was released on the 29th by CBS and Survey USA, was based on 581 registered voters in the district and had a margin of error of plus/minus 1. The bigger story is that the district is heavily Democrat, by 18 percent – should Harman come within striking distance (10 points or more behind Garamendi (who is endorsed by every California Union, and has been the Lt. Govenor of the State for 10 plus years), or wins the district outright, it will be a rejection of the ideology, not necessarily the Party, and perhaps speak to something under-reported – the voter who, although identifying themselves with one major party or another, votes against that party candidate. Therefore, this may be less a rejection of one party over the other, rather a rise of the people being more informed, less inclined to tow the Party line, or vote for the “rock star” candidate, and making a decision based on how they feel that person will best represent their own interests.

All eyes should be on the outcome of the California 10th, and the statistics that rise, once the dust is settled. It would behoove candidates and both major parties, to take a closer look at those Tea Party activists, and other groups too numerous to mention that are making this election more about what the majority of the people want to see happen to their government; be it a State or Federal race.