Election 2009 – State-wide Elections trend Republican, Congressional Races Trend Democrat – Analysis

The State of New Jersey and the Commonwealth of Virginia both elected Republican Gubernatorial candidates; Bob McDonnell took Virginia by a margin of 18% the state had last voted for a Democrat in 2005 who won by a margin of approximately 5%. Additionally, yesterday saw a sweep, as both the offices of Lt. Governor and Attorney General went to the Republican candidates. In New Jersey, the trend towards Republican Chris Christie was more pronounced, although the margin was 5%, that spoke volumes, as a third party candidate, , Chris Daggett took 6% of the vote.

Historically, New Jersey, like Massachusetts to the north, is considered a Democrat “stronghold”, a Republican has not held that seat since 1997 when Christine Todd Whitman struggled to achieve victory with a 1% margin. In New Jersey, the Incumbent Corzine, was struggling with low approval ratings, and New Jersey has a tax rate, as of 2008, that was 2 points higher than Massachusetts’ , (2009 might show that both states tax burdens have risen due to new taxes imposed on both New Jersey and Massachusetts residents).

Two special elections to fill U.S. Congressional vacancies were won by the Democrat candidate in both New York’s 23rd and California’s 10th Congressional districts. The New York 23rd race garnered most of the national attention due to an apparent “schism” within the Republican Party. The results, however, in the 23rd, upon closer inspection of the incomplete results (not all counties had reported in as of 11:30 pm est.), show Owen’s with 50% of the vote, Hoffman, the Independent New York Conservative Party Candidate with 44.7%, and Dede Scozzafava, the Republican who had dropped out of the race this past weekend, with 5.3% of the vote. That leaves Owen’s victory (considering the New York Republican Party endorsed candidate and the Conservative Candidate combined are at exactly 50 %,) a virtual Republican/Conservative tie.

In the California 10th District, the Democrat, John Garamendi, took the seat by 10 points over Republican Harmon, which was in line with the last CBS/USA Survey poll. That said, the district is heavily Democrat, by 18%, , leaving 8% off the table.

In both local elections, the results are not stellar for the Democrat Party, considering the spread in California’s 10th and , what amounted to “Scozzafava’s” Party Brand as a Republican, leading to a Win for the Democrat.

Were the election results in these four contests a referendum on the President? The question being asked by every media outlet, and using “exit” polls to prove otherwise, (exit polls not always the most reliable (see election 2004where television network exit polling gave the election early to John Kerry, while actual vote count was the opposite) assume that this was more of a local issue, or a referendum on the economy. That said the President and Vice President both spent a great deal of time in three of the four states, especially New Jersey and New York. It goes to popularity and to trust. The general public may be willing to give Obama a pass, personally, but apparently are not willing to vote upon his endorsement of a particular candidate. Additional issues of health care reform, the economy and jobs contributed to the outcome in all four districts, which should send a clear message to those in the Senate and the House facing re-election next year that they will either outright lose their seats or face a very tough challenge from either a Republican and/or Conservative candidate. Additionally, history is not on the side of those incumbents that are affiliated with the “party in power”, as off-year elections generally swing to the opposition party. Therefore it is highly probable that, come 2010, the Congress will be held by the Republican Party, with a White House controlled by the lone Democrat, Obama. One of two situations would then develop. Either the President would begin to govern from the middle (which is highly improbable given his decisions to date being left of center) or should that occur the Congress would stop any further legislation that would be considered “progressive” from getting to his desk. At this point, getting nothing done at all would be preferable to passing legislation that would increase our national debt, increase the role of government, and ultimately increase taxes – the burden of which would fall mainly on the middle class.