New York 23rd – Democrat Bill Owens May Be Returned to New York – Hoffman Gains from Errors in Vote Reporting – Absentee Ballots to Decide Congress

Doug Hoffman, NY 23rd Conservative Candidate - Vote Too Close to Call after Democrat Owens Sworn In! image factrealwordpress

Although the New York 23rd had not officially been called for Democrat Bill Owens, in the November 3rd Congressional Special Election, Nancy Pelosi swore him into office on two "technicalities": Conservative Candidate Doug Hoffman had conceded after he was led to believe Oswego County was lost, and Owens led by approximately 5,000 votes. Sworn in Friday Night, Owens immediately voted "yes" on HR 3962 on Saturday and Obama hastily pointed out that Owens won the district on Health Care Reform.

The Old adage: It's Not Over Until the Fat Lady Sings" may apply.



Apparently, there was “chaos” in the 23rd on November 3rd, specifically in Oswego Country, one of Conservative Candidate, Doug Hoffman’s strongholds. Votes were grossly underreported, and based upon that information and the fact that 93% of the vote had been counted, Hoffman conceded the race. The race, still not officially certified by the State of New York, has tightened considerably after re-canvassing. Hoffman now leads in Oswego Country and Jefferson County, where Owens needed the votes to succeed and additionally, 4 districts gave Hoffman zero votes in error. The count now stands with Owen’s lead at 3,026, with over 10,000 absentee ballots to be counted.

Therefore the race will most likely be decided by absentee ballot, in this heavily conservative district. Owens election was herald as historical and an omen of trends as he was the first Democrat to win a Congressional Seat in the NY 23rd in 100 years, with heavy media attention, and a foregone conclusion based on errors, and the underreporting for which the American Press is now infamous.
Hoffman’s campaign will wait until the end of the week, when the race actually shapes up, to decide upon any legal action. That said, should Hoffman pull a “come from behind” victory out of the New York 23rd, after having dealt with miscounts, errors, massive media blitzes and a House Speaker who swore in his opponent without the race being certified by the State of New York, compounding errors, it will be a stunning loss to the DNC.

In light of this week’s bad news from Gallop where Republicans now lead Democrats on the Congressional Ballot by 48% to 44% (in July Democrats led by 50% to 44%), it is probable that campaigns with internal polls, showing significant leads, will be challenging outcomes in races that have a similar make-up. A Hoffman win will also serve to further energize those conservatives and independents who are looking for the candidate that best represents their interests, be it a Republican, Conservative Party, or yes, a Pro-Life, Fiscally Conservative Democrat. Although the media erroneously tags Conservative Organizations as “Republican”, as they most often identify with the Republican Party on issues both socially and fiscally conservative, the members are more often self-identified as “independent”. It will be that “independent” streak, so favored by the founding fathers of this nation (who were diametrically opposed to political parties), that determine the outcome of the 2010 and 2012 elections.

Tuesday Elections – Will they be Predictive of 2010? Analysis VA, NJ, NY 23, California 10th and the Massachusetts Special Election - Senate Race

On Tuesday, four states are holding elections that have the eyes of the nation’s pundits and political party analysts doing a bit of hand-wringing. The Virginia Governor’s race is all but a foregone conclusion (these deductions are based on poll data from Real Clear Politics) with the race for Governor’s (and the balance of the majority of the State’s offices) going Republican. In New Jersey, it remains too close to call, as those same polls have either Corzine or Christie, up by any number of points, with Dagget, the independent in the mix; that said, the majority of the polls favor Christie, which in that Democrat stronghold, should Christie emerge as the victor, that is a real coup for the Republican Party.

The New York 23rd district and the California 10th are in play due to congressional representatives taking positions within the Obama administration. The New York 10th is being watched as it’s a drama based race, the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, bowed out of the race due to low poll numbers and has endorsed the Democrat, over Conservative Doug Hoffman. One can, given that last minute endorsement which, as her core constituency was those who would vote Republican, for the most part, those votes should transfer to either Hoffman and/or voters may still give Scozzafava the vote – whether it counts or no. In that race, like New Jersey, polls are up and down, that said; – consider that race, to likely go to Hoffman (based on those Scozzafava voters who would only vote Republican, pulling the lever for a like-minded Conservative.

Additionally, the California 10th, which has been underreported, finds the latest local news poll (CBS 5) with Democrat Garamendi up by 10 points over the Republican Harmer. Under most circumstances one would assume, given that the district is considered solid Democrat, that the Democrat would basically run away with the seat – however, something is afoot – certain conservative PAC;s have turned their attention to the 10th (and the NY 23rd and the New Jersey Governor’s race) in the past 48 hours.

This can only indicate one thing – the GOP nor for that matter any conservative, is never known to throw “good money after bad” – they may “smell blood” – If Harmon doesn’t outright win the election, then the fact that he comes within striking distance of the Democrat in this particular district is a real signal as to how hard the Democrats must work to keep their jobs in 2010.

Historically speaking, the house changes hand every three to four terms (or 4 to six years) – As the Democrats have controlled both houses since 2006, historical logic dictates that it is probable a change is going to occur giving Republican’s the edge. Therefore, two of the four races, historically would go Republican (the same is true for state Governors, a back and forth between political parties is the norm) that said, should three or all four of the races turn to the “right”, then that would herald something a bit more interesting, a shift in the mindset of the voting populace towards the right. Once the dust clears, it will be interesting to see how these states and districts voted by party affiliation – as it may not only be a rejection of the Democrat by Republicans (given), or Independents (looking increasingly given) but by the rank and file (moderates) of the Democrat Party).

If the GOP or the NRSC throw anything at all to the Special Election in Massachusetts in January, then the handwriting will be further imprinted upon the wall. In the special election to replace Ted Kennedy, a primary battle of some media magnitude is being hard fought by the Democrats, Coakley, Capuano and Pagliuca and Khaezi, as of this writing that, although the GOP has a viable candidate in Republican Scott Brown, he must face a primary from Jackie Robinson, who filed signatures last week . Should Brown win the primary in December (which give his grassroots campaign and Robinson’s lack thereof), if the NRSC and the GOP start to throw anything at all in Brown’s direction, that will signal more than an historical electoral pattern. Although, many pundits are now calling this race, “safe” by virtue of Massachusetts being Massachusetts, this is the next race to watch as far as the state of mind of the voting electorate. Should Brown receive any support from the RNC (NRSC) and become the second Republican Senator in over 3 decades from Massachusetts, that will be clearly indicative of the mind of the electorate, and the end to purely party driven voting for at the very least the 2010 and possibly 2012 cycles.

New York 23rd – Two Candidates Only – Hoffman and Owens – Scozzafava Bows Out

Doug Hoffman, New York Conservative Party History in the Making - New York 23rd District - image:4.pb.blogspot

The Republicanrunning in the New York 23rd District, Dede Scozzafava, has taken herself out of the race, leaving the Conservative Candidate Doug Hoffman poised to make history. Hoffman, who had closed within a point of Democrat Bill Owns according to polls taken before Scozzafava announcement, will now, in all likelihood, surge past Owens on Tuesday to be the New York Conservative Party’s first Representative in the United States Congress.

Ms. Scozzafava suspended her campaign today, once it was determined by the latest polls that she could not possibly win. In a statement she thanked her supporters and acknowledging that her name would still appear on the ballot, indicated that those supporters were free to put their support where they chose.
It is now likely that on Tuesday, both New York, and the Governor’s seats in New Jersey and Virginia will be held by conservatives.

New York’s 23rd District, Doug Hoffman takes Lead in Latest Poll – Pawlenty Endorses. The Nation Trends Conservative - Analysis

Doug Hoffman, New York 23rd Conservative Candidate - image Madison County Courier

Doug Hoffman, Conservative Candidate for the New York 23rd Congressional District, has now taken the lead according to a poll conducted by the Conservative Club for Growth. Hoffman receives 31% of the vote, with Democrat candidate Owens at 27% and the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava at 20%, the balance of those polled remain undecided with just over a week until the election. Tim Pawlenty has become the latest in a string of Republican heavy hitters, to endorse Hoffman. Pawlenty, who is considered a considered a potential candidate for the 2012 Republican Presidential race, gave Hoffman his endorsement on Monday. Pawlenty joins Sarah Palin, Steve Forbes, Rick Santorum, Fred Thompson who have endorsed Hoffman over the Republican Candidate, Dede Scozzafava, who is considered to be too moderate. Former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich has endorsed Scozzafava – Gingrich is once again, considered to be a possible candidate for the 2012 Republican ticket.

Why the split?

As happens in the two major political parties in the United States, there are various sub-factions within each party, all holding several basic tenants, but at the same time, disagreeing on many – neither party is, as of this writing, cohesive. The Democrat Party includes progressives, and moderates, as well as the newly minted “Blue Dog” Democrats, which are, from all intents and purposes, Republicans. The Republican Party has the moderate or Beltway Republicans and then the more focused conservatives, both fiscally and socially, that drive the vote. In addition there are several up and coming parties, including the Libertarian and American Conservative Party, all of which are drawing new members from both major political parties. Hoffman is a candidate of the New York Conservative Party, a separate entity, which was founded in 1962, after members of the Republican Party in New York, felt disenfranchised, and formed their own entity. The New York Conservative Party has been influential in races in New York State, electing James Buckley to the Senate in in 1970. (An extensive overview of the New York Conservative Partycan be found here at the University at Albany.

The Political Landscape

There has been a shift in the political think of the American populace, to the right – according to a recent Gallop Poll

“Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.”

Gallop explains that the reason the shift is significant is that independents, are weighing in as holding more Conservative views, a 29% shift towards conservatism since 2008. Given that independent voters, (which make up a significant part of the electorate, especially in certain states (see Massachusetts with over 50% of the electorate designated as unenrolleds), and that those voters generally choose a candidate based upon identity, not party affiliation, it would then follow that conservative leaning candidates will be given the nod in the 2010 and 2012 elections.

The Evangelical Factor

A leader of what is dubbed “the right-wing, Evangelical factor”, (often erroneously tied to the Republican Party although, often responsible for Republican Candidates wins or loses, for that matter), James Dobson, made a stunning argument, or one might say prediction of today’s political landscape in 2007 in discussion with Fox New Talk show host, Sean Hannity. In a nutshell, Dobson argued that if the evangelicals did not endorse any Republican political candidate, and a left-of-center Democrat were elected President, the backlash to liberal politics over a period of several years, would result in a sweep of conservatism in 2012.
As one looks as polls on races in 2009 and 2010, Real Clear Politics, it is apparent that the nation is trending conservative in their choices.