2014 Charlie Baker Will Run for Massachusetts’ Governor’s Office – Second Run Announced Via Social Media

NECN Reports that Republican, Charlie Baker, will make a second run at the MA Governor’s office. Baker made his announcement via social media rather than the expected Press Conference. Baker who ran against incumbent Democrat Governor, Duval Patrick in 2010, lost by a small margin of 6 points to Patrick – both faced former Democrat, Tim Cahill who garnered 8% of the vote, with the state split between Baker and Patrick by county. Head to Head, Baker won heavy population counties, Essex, Plymouth and Worcester by 4 or more points, Norfolk by .1 point, and Barnstable, a lower population county by 3 points. Patrick took Bristol and Middlesex by 5 plus margins, Suffolk (Boston) a smaller county by 20 points, lower population areas, Dukes and Nantucket by a larger margin, with the Western side of the state, Hampshire, Berkshire and Franklin County coming in by 20 plus points, and Hamden, the most populated county west of Worcester, by the lowest margin of 5 points. (New York Times)

Massachusetts, however, tends to turn red on occasion, and Baker has shown strength in the 3 way 2010 race. Moderate Democrats tended to lean towards Cahill, who swayed the race in Patrick’s direction. Without a stronger, high-profile Democrat turned Independent in the race, and a likely more Progressive Democrat running against Baker, all bets will be off until the dust settles.

Massachusetts, known as the “bluest state” is home to Cambridge and Amherst, Progressive conclaves that are locally given the moniker “the People’s Republic of…”, the balance of the state tends to be Independent, with 50% of total registered voters noting a status of “unenrolled” in either party.

Speculation: Clinton Returns to Private Sector – Replacement: NM's Bill Richardson – Clinton Presidential Run Still Not Out of the Question

Hillary Clinton 2003 - Life Magazine Profile


The Examinerled with the question: Will outgoing New Mexico Governor, Bill Richardson replaces Hillary Clinton as Sectary of State? Richardson, who had been offered positions within the Obama White cabinet in 2008, was one of the key Super-Delegates in Obama’s win at the 2008 Democrat convention However, at the time he was asked to join the Obama cabinet Richardson represented one more “scandal” in Obama’s cabinet choices, and declined the offer until the Indictments were cleared (Google news: Moscow Pullman Democrat, January 1, 2009).

The speculation on Hillary’s “retirement from public life” began with a few quotes from Clinton herself when queried whether or not she would seek the Presidency in 2012 – both were asked and answered on foreign soil, in early December from Bahrain and again from New Zealand, neither the time nor the place to make an announcement of that sort. She then answered the question on Fox News Sunday – once again, a resounding no to the question of a run against Obama in 2012.

Clinton, who had served as a New York State Senator, and ran against Obama for the 2008 Democrat Presidential Nomination, according to recent reports, is stepping aside to spend more time with her family. Clinton has spent the last two years working the globe and holding her own in the Obama administration - considering the vitriol of the campaign trail and the subsequent “Super Delegate” coronation of Obama over Clinton (who had the popular vote) at the Democrat Convention in 2008, her tenure with the association is nothing short of diplomatic acumen on steroids. That said, it could very well be that Hillary Clinton is tired, and wants to spend time with family and friends.

Meanwhile, David Axelrod hints at Obama’s run in 2012, and a “shake-up” at the White House, and Administration Press Secretary, Robert Gibbs, denies any major changes will be taking place. Obviously, something is afoot. Axelrod left for Chicago early in order to set up the campaign strategy for Obama’s 2012 bid, and has been the mastermind behind the Obama elections since he first rolled out Massachusetts Govenor Deval Patrick as test case for Obama in 2006. Axelrod used the same Massachusetts strategy for Obama’s 2008 bid, down to the slogan: “yes we can”. On the eve of the November mid-terms, Patrick was, this time, in a battle for the Governor’s office, however, what aided the most unpopular Govenor in Massachusetts in his reelection (by 2 points), was the former Democrat turn Independent Patrick staffer, Timothy Cahill, running as an independent. This move effectively pulled independent voters away from the Republican Challenger, to tip the scales towards Patrick. As of now, Michael Bloomberg, believed to be the national Tim Cahill, has denied he would run, however, watch for an unexpected change of heart from a semi-plausible Democrat turned independent in 2011-2012 with an announced intention to run against Obama and Brand X Republican. This scenario is not out of the question.

Back to Hillary Clinton: According to Republican Strategist, Carl Rove, via the Huffington Post, Hillary will run in 2016. Speculation perhaps that should Obama run again in 2012, regardless of the number of times he invokes the name of Ronald Reagan, he does not have the time to pick up enough of the independents that he lost over the past two years, therefore, a Republican would win the election in 2012. Thereby, the preceding scenario would open the doors to a Clinton run in 2016.

Of course, Hillary Clinton may be finished with politics, for now and she has repeatedly denied an interest in seeking the White House, hasn't she?: from CNN: 2003:

Former first lady Hillary Clinton says she has no plans to launch a bid to become the country's first woman president in the next two elections.
It has often been speculated the former first lady would make a bid for the White House, but in two interviews Sunday, she said she had "no intention" to run for president in 2008 -- and would turn down invitations to run in 2004.
Clinton said she is enjoying her current political role as a senator for New York.

The fact of the matter is that no-one, at the present time, knows who will run in 2012 on either ticket (or in the case of Axelrod’s campaign strategy, who the “straw man”may be). However, with Clinton free of the White House, and the potential candidacy of the likes of Mitt Romney, Mike Pence, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and, of course, Sarah Palin, with a Republican controlled Congress and the more than likely 2012 Republican controlled Senate, would the need to run, both for the Democrat Party and for her own vindication, be out of the question? It may be far too early to place any bets, however, one might be tempted to look at Clinton for 2012. She would be a formidable candidate, both during a campaign against Obama (who has the Progressives, but not the overwhelming numbers of Moderate Democrats), and a national campaign against a right of center conservative. This former Goldwater Girl would be able to run directly at the middle. In the aforementioned scenario, the Press would, after a brief period of mourning for their candidate of choice, get behind Clinton in droves, as she would be more representative, at least in part, of the ideologues who are the U.S. press.

Of course, at the present time, it is clearly speculation, but in the opinion of this writer, Clinton would have been the clear choice in 2008 (based on her record in the senate alone), should Hillary Clinton decide to run in 2012, it would be for the love her political Party and her County. What one has to ask, is there anyone else that can match Hillary Clinton on the horizon for 2012, and would one rather have four years of one party rule beginning in 2012? As a nation, we have seen what can happen when one political party is left to its own devices while holding the Executive and the Legislative Branch, (both the Republican and Democrats). It would, to be certain, a sacrifice on Clinton’s part, but will she have the ability to turn her back on her country and the Moderate Democrats? Only time will tell.

MA 2010 Governors Race: Deval Patrick Tea Party Motivated by “Hate”, Charlie Baker(R) Ties Patrick (D) in Latest Polling, Cahill (I) an Afterthought

Deval Patrick(D) and Charlie Baker (R) Statistical Tie


A Rasmussen Poll on the Massachusetts Governor's race released on Friday, gives the embattled Democrat (and Obama-Axelrod Field Test) a 3 point lead over Republican Candidate Charlie Baker. The poll is well within the margin of error (45 to 42 with a 4.5 % margin), which is a statistical tie. Included in the poll is the third candidate, Democrat turned conveniently independent Tim Cahill, who was part of the Patrick administration.

As earlier predicted, Independent candidates normally receive under 6% of the vote in Massachusetts which can make for many a close race. That said, Cahill’s had some problems paying taxes, which appears to be a resounding theme this year among candidates – following in the footsteps of “Tim Tax-Evading” Geithner who was confirmed by the Democrat controlled Congress, despite having made some “errors” using Turbo Tax. That apparently has left the door open for all candidates regardless of party. Although, Cahill may have stood a better chance had he done a 360 and changed political parties – as in run as a Republican. Historically third party candidates don’t do well in the Bay State.

Now that Mr. Cahill is quickly becoming an afterthought – The Baker Campaign has the opportunity to move those poll numbers to Scott Brown/Coakley levels or possibly beyond – given the governors general approval ranking, which has mysteriously risen in the past three months of furious campaigning (by the state media) up to, according to Rasmussen’s poll, 49%!

That said there is discontent in the Bay State over higher taxes (implanted by Patrick and company in July of 2009), and interestingly enough, his push to fund college education for illegal aliens. Baker is scoring higher in the “viewed favorably” section of Rasmussen poll, and name recognition, across the Bay State has not reached full potential. Therein lays the rub, the more the voters get to see Charlie Baker, the more they like him.

In a recent on air gubernatorial debate, Govern Deval Patrick discussed the Tea Party – (audio embedded below) and how members are “fueled by hate” (which is the party line in places such as Cambridge, and Amherst), however, a recent Friday gathering of Tea Party Activists, shown in poor quality photos below (given the fact that this blog has no talent in regards to photography), depicts individuals expressing their freedom, although the photo’s are not representative of the entire group (as it coverage both sides of a major rotary, the signs held and visible were Patriotic not hateful – which is the norm, unless one is an incumbent Republican who is running against a Tea Party backed candidate or any Democrat. Therefore, with the dogma in place, and the race tightening, one can see the following taking place within the next three weeks: Baker (R) leading Patrick (D) by 5 points, with Cahill, a blip on the radar, nothing more and nothing less.


Audio of Deval Patrick Tea Party Hate Rhetoric



Tea Party Rally, Signs: American Flags, Don't Tread on Me, a few signs referencing Taxes and Tea.... (Chicopee, is in Richard Neal's (D-MA2) District)


Hundreds line both sides of Rt. 33 in Chicopee, MA in Tea Party Rally

Rasmussen – Massachusetts Ramps Up Independence – Trouble for Patrick as well as Congressional Incumbents

Pollsters - Massachsuetts 2010 and 2012? image: blog optimism for America

A new poll released by Rasmussen on March 8th, reveals that the Commonwealth has no longer is blindly following a liberal bent; rather, the independent streak appears to be growing stronger. In this particular poll the crosstabs are revealing - the Gubernatorial Election is tight, with Patrick leading with 35%, GOP Frontrunner, Charlie Baker with 32% and Democrat turned Independent Cahill down to 19% - the kicker: 14% of those polled are currently undecided. The undecided’s, incidentally, are often aligned with name recognition and or a favorable rating, which in Baker’s case, a startling 28% of those polled have no opinion (meaning they have not heard of or have sufficient knowledge of Charlie Baker). In a match-up with Patrick, only 13% view him very favorably, while Cahill comes in at 10% and Baker at 17%. The Governors current overall approval (includes strongly and somewhat approves) is at 33%. With independent candidates coming out strong “out-of-the-gate” and normally finishing in the 6 percentile, the 3 point gap that Separate Baker and Patrick should close quickly over the summer and into the fall, as long as Baker’s staff makes sure that his name becomes “household” across the Commonwealth. That 28% could conceivably push Baker ahead of Patrick in double digits.

Political campaigns are all about branding – 1 the brand of the Candidate and, fortunately for Baker, the brand of the Political Party in general. If Baker introduces himself to the Commonwealth, remains upbeat in any advertising, he will minimize the threat from Cahill, and Patrick will be, as they say, history.

The Kennedy state no more – 58% of those polled feel that the Kennedy dynasty is over, and the health care issue is still a driving force in the Bay State, with 31% strongly approving and 40% strongly opposing, on this issue Bay Stater’s know where they stand, only 2% were “unsure” (refused). When adding in those on the “somewhat fence”, the support Obama’s Health Care plan jumps to 46% and those that oppose to 52%. What one must keep in mind – this is Massachusetts. The Presidents Handling of Health Care Reform: 19% believe he’s done an excellent job, while 44% believe he has done poorly. That is stunning. Additionally, Massachusetts voters believe that the Insurance Companies would do a better job that the Federal Government, 50% to 42%.

Obama’s overall approval rating in the Commonwealth (includes the somewhats), is at 44%! With a disapproval rating of 46%, which tells us that Massachusetts has joined the rest of the nation (Gallop latest Obama approval: 46%).

All that aside, those who are considering a Congressional run, or are now invested in a run against a current Congressional representative, get a serious boost – 38% of those polled feel that the current representative in Congress deserves to be reelected – 38% feel that they do not. This particular question has those undecided’s in-line with Baker’s numbers: 24% are unsure. (Branding). When asked if the nation would be better off if the incumbent were to be defeated – 53% of Bay Stater’s believe that the entire Massachusetts Democrat Controlled congressional legislation should be sent packing, while 25% support keeping them in office, and 22% remain sitting on the fence. In reviewing the data on both previous poll questions, the percentage of those sitting on the fence is a 2 point difference. This means that those Republicans or Independents running in each district better start knocking on doors and introducing themselves; to everyone in the district. Instead of holding barbeque's and cocktail parties, it would behoove those that want a clear shot at making history, to get in the trenches and get to know their future constituents.

Almost every single congressional district in Massachusetts is in play, and two in particular, the 2nd Hampden and the 4th, are going to be the districts to watch. Those candidates that have an independent streak, will perform the best in these two districts, right now, that’s Jay Fleitman in the Hampden 2nd, and Earl Sholley in the 4th (excellent review here: at Massachusetts Election 2010.

In conclusion, Massachusetts which has always been dubbed “Safe Democrat” and the “Bluest State” is changing. That change comes from the growing number of independents, or registered unenrolleds, who will vote for the person, not the party – it does not matter that Democrats currently outnumber Republican’s, it matters which candidate (or incumbent) is able to convince the majority of voters that they deserve the nod. In 2010, Massachusetts, against all odds (referring to the media’s take) may indeed shock the nation once again.

Getting the Massachusetts Facts Straight – Washington Post profiles Charlie Baker’s Run for Govenor

Charle Baker, Repubican Candidate for Govenor, Massachusetts - images masstech.org

In a recentWashington Post Article, written by Chris Cillizza and entitled “Charlie Baker: Scott Brown, part deux?”, the author uses the erroneous claim that the Massachusetts Electorate is heavily Democrat. Further, he cites the Massachusetts Secretary of State’s website as follows:

The central challenge for Baker is how to win a race -- not a special election -- in a state that still heavily favors Democrats. (At the end of 2008 -- the latest information available at the state's election division -- there were 4.2 million registered Democrats, 2.1 million "unenrolled" or independents and just 1.6 million Republicans.)

The actual statistics available here show that Massachusetts is a heavily “independent” or unenrolled state, with 1.5 million registered Democrats, 500,000 registered Republicans and 2.1 million registered “unenrolled”.
Erroneously quoting the statistics of the Massachusetts electorate is nothing new, and is the reason why analysis of races within the state are often dubbed as “Safe Democrat”, with few if any pollsters even glancing at Massachusetts.
Additionally, Scott Brown’s win, in this article is touted as being “one in a lifetime”, the author citing sources as “political operatives”. The piece appears to be designed to at once compare Scott Brown to Charlie Baker (the rising star in the GOP factor), and to outline why it will be most problematic for Baker to succeed in the Gubernatorial election.

Scott Brown is no Charlie Baker and Charlie Baker is no Scott Brown. It is that simple. What the two men have in common is that they are both running as Republican’s in what was previously considered a Blue State (that is within the Commonwealth, on the outside looking in it is still considered “Safe Democrat”).

Baker is his own man and has his own style, one which is at once confident and at the same time approachable. Further, he does not, as far as anyone is aware, drives a pickup truck. Baker does, however, know a thing or two about running a large corporation, specifically one that involves health care. Baker was responsible for turning that organization around, and given the fact that the Commonwealth’s government is nothing more than a large corporate body (granted dysfunctional from this perspective), it would appear that Baker’s background makes him most suited for the position, specifically when compared to the Democrat-turned Independent Tim Cahill (part of the Patrick ‘Administration) and the current Governor.

No article on any Massachustts race would be complete unless the author brought up something salacious or ridiculous about any Republican candidate. The Big Dig, in this wise concerning how far Callizza researched this article – he went straight to the Boston Globe, citing an article written by Joan Vennochi(not known for being particularly unbiased), going into a twelve year old connection to the Weld and Celluci administrations. The problem for those who would prefer to see Duval Patrick keep his seat (those are journalists, pundits, and DNC operatives within and outside the Commonwealth), is timing. Twelve years is a long time in voters’ minds, and regardless of Party, when comparing candidates, and there is a difference between say, a decision made in office or a serious problem such as a conviction for armed robbery or prostitution, - the people here, on the ground, get it. Another factor not being considered is the fact that the Democrat Brand is damaged. The evidence is everywhere, but no more so than in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts where almost every Congressional District is also in play and the Incumbents (all Democrats) are faced with the unusual burden of having to actually campaign against Republican(s), some incumbents doing so for the first time in decades and the outcome is looking grim. Therefore, Charlie Baker, who is, for all intents and purposes, squeaky clean (comparatively), also has the ability and background to run the Commonwealth. Additionally, Baker may find something past Republican Governors did not: a house that includes a few more Republican’s than in past years.

Finally, the war chest of candidates in the article bears some scrutiny. Although it is reasoned that the individual with the Cash wins, it is not always the case – one needs enough, obviously, to run the ads, and feed the ground troops who are knocking on doors, and making those calls, but one has to be realistic. It is not so much the money, but the individual who will win the race and the key will be the Brand and how well that brand, in Massachusetts, resonates with the Unenrolled. In the case of the Governor’s race, Baker, who also faces a challenger in a primary, is, from this perspective, better placed to best either Cahill or the current Occupant of the Governor’s office. It is numbers and those numbers are based on the make-up of the Commonwealth’s voters. Should one be inclined to make an early prediction, and why not: Patrick: 35% (based on Democrat Enrollment), Cahill, 7% (most independents end up in that bracket historically), and Baker takes the rest.

MA - Gov. Deval Patrick Calls for In-State Tuition and Drivers Licenses for Illegal Immigrants – Schools Include “Immigration Lessons”. Next Stop:D.C.

Deval Patrick with Barack Obama - Tax and Spend image msnbc

As the Nation, lately, is most likely to follow Massachusetts’ lead in matters of economic chaos (see Massachusetts Universal Health Care Debacle), Democrat Governor, Deval Patrick has renewed his call for for illegal immigrants to receive in-state tuition assistance from the Commonwealth. Based on a report released by the executive branch advisory council, illegal immigrants would be eligible for in-state tuition, complete with financial assistance, the ability to obtain a drivers license, and a host of other services detailed in the report entitled: “The New American Agenda”.

The Report, prepared in October and released by the Governor this week, is broken into three sections: The Overview: part 1,Education: part 2 and “Refugees: part 3.

All three sections of the report call for creation of more state-funded programs, something that may leave the State’s dwindling tax-paying population, wondering how much more Massachusetts can squeeze a paycheck. In July, the Commonwealth approved a round of tax increases, including a 25% hike in the sales tax, and taxes on communications (rising cable and telephone bills statewide) and a tax on Satellite Television and unemployment benefits. Desperate to cover expenses from Commonwealth Care (Massachusetts Universal Health Care Program), the State has even proposed taxing Massachusetts pet owners - no kidding. The only way to pay for these programs (some of which receive federal funding) is obvious, increase taxes on employers (what’s left of them) and those still working in the Commonwealth.

Boosting services for legal immigrants would be one thing – the nation has been built on the backs of immigrants – therefore, any proposal that would serve to aid those who have arrived here legally, are welcome, however, one finds that paying for services rendered to those who have broken the laws of the nation and by sheer numbers, have pushed away legal immigrants by reducing immigration “quotas”, is a little difficult to comprehend.

Most worrisome about the proposal are the national implications: Massachusetts policy under the Patrick administration seems to find its way to the Obama administration – and then to the halls of Congress where yet another ridiculous, tax-payer funded, unworkable program is proposed in a Bill introduced by Speaker Pelosi. Massachusetts residents have the ability to move across state lines (and as the State’s population declines, it is apparent that is exactly what is happening), however, once these idiotic programs are national, there are few choices when it comes to protecting what’s left of one’s income from the tax-happy administration in Washington.

It is, therefore, no wonder, that the Governors approval ratings have been in the tank, and Massachusetts residents are already reviewing options for 2010. Although recent polls suggest that Patrick would succeed in a gubernatorial race, with the inclusion of Democrat conveniently turned Independent, Tim Cahill, and Republican Christy Mihos (Republican turned Independent turned Republican), it remains a bit early to call this race “Safe” for the incumbent. Massachusetts voters, although interested in Independent Candidates, generally push them aside at the 10th hour for one of the major party candidates. Christy Mihos knows this too well, his poll numbers were identical to Cahill’s when he began to run, only to find that voters turned to either Patrick or Healy once inside the ballot box, leaving him with 6 percent of the vote. One can anticipate that the same thing will occur with Cahill, leaving the Commonwealth with two choices and the Governor will, in all likelihood, be asking his close friends Axelrod and Obama for employment in 2011.

Note: the opinion on immigration is based on the author being a first-generation American of Hispanic descent.

Boston Globe Campaigns Against Christie Mihos, Candidate for Govenor – Article on Mihos Tax Issue Refuted by Other Journalist - Analysis

The BostonGlobe ran an article entitled “Mihos Runs Short on Tax Lien Explanation”, yesterday. In reading the article, written by Globe Staffer, Michele Richinick, one gets the distinct impression that this is more of an editorialized report than an actual “news article”. The gist of the article is that Globe Reporters investigating Mihos financials discovered a tax lien on his home on the Cape, and that Mihos had owed additional monies in fees for late payment. In the same article, however, paragraph three reads:

“Mihos refused to quantify the gain or the amount of the tax. He produced a letter of apology from the IRS, stating that the lien was placed in error shortly after the delinquent taxes had been paid.”

Yet the Globe is not “satisfied” with the “explanation” given by Mihos regarding the reason the lien was filed in the first place.
The first note under the headline reads: "Cape Cod Home Latest IRS Target", referring to a transaction Mihos made in another State, not subject to Massachusetts Taxes, but which the State’s D.O.R. aggressively pursed in order to collect the tax and fines. Incidentally this incident occurred during the 2006 campaign.

A follow-up article by 40 year veteran Journalist Walter Brook, appeared on a local Cape Cod News Website :

“Although Christy Mihos owes no taxes whatsoever, the state's largest circulation daily newspaper implied otherwise today in a story which confounded this writer and many others, including the candidate who lives in Yarmouth.
In fact, Mihos is probably the state's only taxpayer who has received a letter of apology from the IRS, a fact known to the writers of the Globe article.
As a journalist for half a century in this state, I have never before seen such a concerted effort by the "old media" to write-off a candidate this early in the campaign, a candidate who their own polls show ahead of his competitor.
As a journalist for half a century in this state, I have never before seen such a concerted effort by the "old media" to write-off a candidate this early in the campaign, a candidate who their own polls show ahead of his competitor.”

Mr. Brooks is referring to Mr. Mihos Republican challenger, Charles Baker, as the which the Globe defends, however, when one looks at the polls, it is clear that the Candidate who has the most to fear from Mihos’ gubernatorial race, is the incumbent Governor, Duval Patrick. In the last four polls, two by Suffolk University and two by Rasmussen, Mihos handily bests Patrick – while Baker does not fare as well. Therefore, one can deduce that, given the Globe “discovered” Mihos’ tax problems in two consecutive election cycles, the real target is the leading Republican candidate.

It is precisely this type of shoddy, “insinuating”, journalism from the Globe and like publications that reminds one of headlines coming from less “elite” sources, such as the National Enquirer. One has to take the alleged “infighting” from the G.O.P., indicated by Mr. Brook in his article, with a grain of salt. Mr. Brook is concerned that the Globe is pushing Baker as a candidate for the Mass. GOP. Given the history of the paper’s editorial bent, this is most unlikely. The facts are simple, the Mass. G.O.P., has two candidates running for Governor, and most likely would prefer one over the other, (given the same occurs with the State’s Democratic Committee) and therefore, as with any healthy primary challenge, one expects there to be supporters from the top of an organization on down, for one candidate or another . That said, simple math (polls and financials) and the make-up of the electorate, dictate that at the end of the day, Mihos will be the gubernatorial candidate, despite the Globes writers best efforts.

Mihos, a populist candidate will face off in a primary that includes the 12% republican electorate as well as any independent (unenrolled) that chose to vote in that primary against Deval Patrick. (Unenrolled's may vote in Massachusetts Primaries, they merely choose either a Republican or Democrat Ballot)The Commonwealth boasts an unusually high percentage of “unenrolleds” – over 50% of the electorate – giving that “non-party” the ability to elect the next Governor, Senator, U.S. Congressional Rep., and so on. Therefore, the hoopla over Party politics in the commonwealth is moot – the voter that each candidate needs to reach is the unenrolled. Given that this year polling indicates that Mihos, as a populist does best with both Republicans and Unenrolleds, any Patrick supporters will do their best to paint the leading candidate as less than perfect. The third party candidate, Tim Cahill, Democrat turned independent, fares well in polling, garnering a 27% (approximate) approval rating – a rating that is similar to the one enjoyed by Christie in his 2006 Independent bid for Governor. The end result, however, is the independent candidate received less than 10% of the overall vote. Therefore, Cahill’s entry into the race is moot, given the historical voting and polling patterns of the Commonwealth. Patrick’ overall approval rating is in the high 20’s and unless there is divine intervention, there will be little hope of a second term. Therefore, one can anticipate that the Globe’s articles will become more aggressive and desperate as the race continues.

Republican Charles Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare, Enters Massachusetts Governors Race.

Charles Baker image: healthcarelawadvocates. org

Charles Baker stepped down as CEO of Harvard Pilgrim’s Healthcare yesterday announcing his candidacy for Massachusetts Governor. Baker, who described his political think as similar to former Governor William Weld’s, is a fiscal conservative, socially liberal Republican. He will face Christy Mihos in the Republican primary. Mihos, who ran as an independent in 2006. Mihos characterizes himself as a “populist” Republican, and welcomed Baker into the race noting that “the best thing for the Republicans looking to win the corner office is a solid primary race.”

The winner of the primary will face incumbent Governor, Deval Patrick, who, according to the latest Rasmussen Pollwould trail both Mihos and Baker - Mihos currently had the edge, with favorables at 46% , compared to Baker at 37%. Patrick’s approval rating in March was at 33% (or roughly the percentage of enrolled Democrats in the State).

The addition of Massachusetts Treasurer, Tim Cahill, who left the Democrat Party this past week to run as an Independent against Patrick, will, in all likelihood, pull some fiscally Conservative Democrats away from Patrick, giving the edge to the Republican challenger. Cahill, who has served as the State Treasurer for the past 8 years, may be seen as a “Democrat Insider” by the State’s Unenrolled voters, who make up over 50% of the electorate.

That said, a three-way race for the Governor’s office, is what many pundits believe propelled Patrick into the office in 2006 – however, in 2006, Patrick won the Governor’s office with a final vote tally of 1,234,984, Healy, the Republican Candidate garnered 784,342 votes, while Mihos, running as an Independent took 154,628 votes. The numbers, as they say, don’t add up. Had Mihos not run as an Independent, the addition of 154,628 votes to Healy’s side, (938,970), still would have given Patrick a sizable lead of 296,014 votes. In 2006, the Republican “brand” was out of favor – times have changed. The further the Democrat’s Party Leader, President Obama, slips into the polls (refer to latest tumbling numbers via Rasmussen), the higher the unemployment rate rises, the economy will dictate a change in Brand. Although rare, this does occur in the State of Massachusetts, where the Brand is already suffering with a recent rise in the State Sales Tax of 25% (among other issues), coupled with a national view of the Democrat Party, will further serve to tarnish both the Governor and Cahill (guilt by association), leading to a Republican win in 2010.