Massachusetts Governor’s Race 2010 Poll - Patrick: 29% Believe He Should Be Re-Elected – Mihos Beats Baker in Republican Primary (Again) – Analysis

Mihos-Patrick Matchup likely 2010 according to Recent Polls

A newly releasedpoll (marginal’s here) by Suffolk University is accompanied by the headline: “Patrick Leads Opponents Despite Negative Ratings”, however, the conclusion is a bit premature given the early nature of the race (primary is not set until Tuesday, September 14th, 2010), and the overall disapproval of the Governor’s job performance to date in that same poll.

In reviewing the marginals, the University, once again, polls 8% on campus, with the balance of the geographic areas of Massachusetts being either over represented or underrepresented (county by county census data) The sample of registered voters, once again, under represents the “unenrolled” – an ever growing portion of the electorate – currently approximately at 51% (based on Massachusetts Secretary of State Voter Registration as of 2008). Therefore, the poll, for all intents and purposes, is more entertainment at this juncture.

The Govenor, who only 29% of those polled believe should retain his seat, appears to have unusually high favorability ratings – 42% favorable/45% unfavorable and 11% undecided (1% never heard of him). Tim Cahill, Democrat turned Independent, 35% favorable, 12% unfavorable, 25% Undecided, 18% never heard of him. Republican, Charlie Baker, and fares poorly overall, 45% never heard of Baker, of those who have, 15% favorable, 11% unfavorable and 30% are undecided. The one populist candidate, running as a Republican, is Christy Mihos, 27% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 29% undecided, and 22% of those polled never heard of him.

Given this scenario and the fact that independents vote in the Massachusetts Primary (given enough interest in a given race, and one must understand that there is a great interest in the race), even among non-political junkies: Mihos would trounce Baker in the primary, leaving a three way race between Cahill, Mihos and the Incumbent, Patrick. Historically, the independent candidate does not fare well in Massachusetts, Mihos understands this quite well, running in 2006 in a three way match-up between Patrick and Kerry Healy, Mihos took 3% of the vote – Healy, weakened by the Republican brand, negative campaign ads, and lack of grassroots support, lost by over 21% To those in the state that blame Mihos for Healy’s loss, a basic math review may be in order.

Therefore, a race between Mihos and Patrick is likely – with Patrick most definitely (according to this poll) taking a loss. This is based on the pivotal question and result: Does Patrick deserve to be re-elected: a measly 29% of those polled (included 8% of university students/professors) believe that he does.

One has to understand that some polls are designed and commissioned in order to achieve results, which may be given to the press, which then broadcasts the “approved results”; never bothering to investigate the marginal’s where the real story lays. One of the most amusing aspects of this poll is a question: “Do you favor the Commonwealth of Massachusetts adding a recall vote where
citizens could remove an elected official when he or she is underperforming?” – the results: 54% yes, 38% no (the percentage of Democrats polled), with only 8% undecided on this issue. If that were, in fact, available to the state’s electorate, one would bet the house that many of those sitting on Beacon Hill would find themselves out on the street.

However, caution is in order, as again, it is still early in the season, with a primary almost a year away – but one can predict, given previous polls by Suffolk (marginals here) that the scenario of a Patrick /Mihos matchup would result.

Is Massachusetts in Play? – 1980 Revisited

Massachusetts as a Red State - Impossible! - On the 2008 electoral map, MA has been blue since the primaries – most probably because this particular state trends Democrat in most cases – the key here is most cases. What is noticeable to residents in this state is the sheer number of campaign commercials airing from both the Obama Campaign and the McCain campaign. One outside of the Bay State might think that this is the norm, however, most often, the Bay State is given little to no notice from either party. In 2004, commercials ran on most national networks, sporadically at best – 2008 is another ballgame. Perhaps it is easy to explain – both campaigns have ridiculous amounts of money to burn – therefore, the least competitive state is being treated like the rest of the country. That said, a recent series of articles in the Springfield Republican, the major daily in Western Massachusetts, is getting a good deal of attention. The basis of these articles is human interest mixed with politics, perspectives from ordinary people on why they chose a particular candidate. One woman’s story has resulted in a high comment count, perhaps the highest commented story on this site; it is not the woman’s reason for voting Obama that is in question, it is the comments that accompany the article. The woman who has chosen to vote for Obama is doing so for economic reasons; that said, she is someone who has needed assistance from the State for her entire adult life – it is evident that the message getting across to Bay Staters that the Obama tax plan is nothing more than additional hand-outs (to put it kindly), is working.

What about the polls? The state is considered safe due to two polls, one taken by Rasmussen and one by Suffolk University. The Suffolk Poll gives Obama a 19 point advantage over McCain. Suffolk University, a Boston based institution, has been conducting polls on its home turf as well as in states across the country, specifically in Nevada, Florida, Ohio and Missouri, Colorado and Virginia (Key States). The Massachusetts Poll, taken October 22, 2008, was based on a total of 400 registered voters (from Suffolk Marginals). 24% of those from Central (Worcester) MA and Western MA, the balance from the Eastern portion of the state with the heaviest concentration, 35%, from Boston North, 8% from Suffolk. The balance of Republican, Democrat and Independents (15%, 36% and 49% respectively, which is an approximate make-up of the electorate). Question 11 asks the respondents which of the six candidates on the ballot they would choose. Baldwin received 1%, Barr, 1%, McCain 31%, McKinny 1%, Nadar 3%, Obama 47%, Undecided 17% and Refused, 1%. 18% of the respondents either refused to answer or remain undecided – in Massachusetts, in a poll that is heavily skewed to Eastern Part of the State, which is where the highest concentration of Democrats reside. This schematic gives Obama a 16 point lead over McCain among likely voters, the subsequent question asked those Undecided on the 22 of October, which way they were leaning – which gave Obama an additional 3 points. Should 18% lean to McCain; according to his poll, Massachusetts’s 12 electoral votes would be added to his tally. Looking at this polling data, one could also consider Massachusetts to be – in play.

Why so many undecideds at this late date? Some possible and plausible reasons: 1) The State has been under control of one party for the past two years, prior to that, Massachusetts normally chose a Republican governor to offset the Democrat Legislature, with the result being a heavy burdened tax base, yet with a conservative advocate to alleviate some of the pain. Duval Patrick was elected based on hope, change, and “Yes We Can” – this message was an economic message, based on tax relief for the middle class and the fact that climate did not favor a Republican; this was the lead-up to the 2008 primary season. The reality: tax breaks for the middle class did not appear and the state budget went out of control; which is now resulting in budget cuts and bailouts from the Federal government (see comments on the article referred to in the first paragraph). Regardless of party affiliation, the Massachusetts fiasco can only be blamed on one group – there simply are no Republican’s (or a limited minority in the legislature) to blame. It is the perfect marriage, regardless of party, that can wreck perfect chaos in government. Lastly, there is a general dissatisfaction in the Democrat Base over John Kerry’s Iraq vote and his Endorsement of Obama over Clinton. John Kerry faced his first opponent from his own party in 24 years, handily defeating Ed O’Reilly by 61% - leaving 39% of the vote on the table. Support for Clinton in the Bay State remains high – would these voters go to McCain? - It is possible and probable

Although this is all speculation, (based on polling, higher commercials, and a climate that just does not bode well for entitlement programs), one cannot help but wonder if the Bay State will step back in time – to 1980. In 1980, Massachusetts was written off as “Safe” for Carter – food for thought. The balance of the polls across the nation are tightening, and, in these final days, one thing is certain, this will be a tight race – where it will be impossible to predict an outcome and anything can happen.

Philadeplphia – All Eye’s on Kerry’s Woes and Polls

John Kerry is, indeed, a national figure within the Democrat party, a post on Philly Blogs was less than kind to the Baystate’s Junior Senator. Kerry supporterse made light of the Suffolk Univesrity Poll and pointed to a June 1, Rasumussen Poll (featured prominently in most news sources as the reason Kerry will hold onto his seat)that gave a slightly different take on Kerry's position. What surprises is the venom towards Kerry that can be found outside his “home” state.

The Rasmussen Poll taken on June 1st came as a surprise to residents of the state - the Suffolk University Poll, not so much. Kerry, due to the fact that he is a national figure, and important to the Democrat Party because they hold a narrow margin in the Senate and rely heavily on Joe Lieberman at this point, need Kerry to maintain his seat - especially in light of the fact that Kennedy's illness is going to eventually leave another gap in the defensive line. The notion that polls are accurate with 500 respondents asked leading questions is somewhat remarkable, to say the least. Large polling firms are hired to conduct polls; the questions are formulated in such a way as the outcome is most often predictable. What makes the Suffolk poll seem less skewed is the fact that they did not name an alternative to Kerry, (as in, if the election were held today, would you vote for: a, b, c), and that they released the percentages of independent voters (the largest voting block in Massachusetts). What outsiders do not see, when looking at the political make-up of the state is the fact that the state is not heavily Democrat, as widely reported, it is indeed heavily Independent. This trend has grown over the past 4 years, with both Democrat and Republican Party losing equal numbers of registered voters (also not widely reported in the press - the focus being on the Republican losses). The reason that there is a majority of Democrat office holders is simply that they continue to run unopposed. The Republican Party has not, in the past, invested in Massachusetts candidates; suddenly however, there is a greater interest in the state. Jeff Beatty, the Republican candidate is on a non-stop campaign tour across the state - his focus in on those independents and disenfranchised Democrats - add to that - he is a credible candidate. (Although the press and the Democrat party point out that since he lost one race in one small congressional district, (which also happens to be where a majority of the state's registered democrats reside), Beatty is a weak candidate.) Kerry must fight a two-front war in order to maintain his seat. This is one instance where the bets are off the table on Kerry. Watch Massachusetts closely - this is the bastion of the Progressive think which has spread through the Democrat party like a cancer, the traditional rank and file Democrats are the same ones who pushed for O'Reilly (a Progressive), at their convention - it was a clear message to Kerry and to the party as a whole - from inside the Party. Kerry may have problems in the primary - never mind the general election.

John Kerry – Suffolk University Poll – Time for Retirement

A poll released by Suffolk University on June 16, suggests that John Kerry, who has held his Senate seat in Massachusetts for 24 years, may be facing an uphill battle this November. In a poll of 500 voters across Massachusetts, 51% want a change, while only 38% thought he should be re-elected. This is not a significant change from a 2007 university poll in which 37% thought Kerry should hold onto his seat.

The poll, according to the Gloucester Times did not mention an alternate to Kerry. The Times article focused on Kerry’s Democrat rival Ed O’Reilly, who will face Kerry in the September primary. Kerry is expected to handily beat O’Reilly in that contest due to his significant cash on hand. Should John Kerry manage to win the primary, he would then face Republican Candidate Jeff Beatty. Beatty, who has strong grassroots appeal, which incidentially runs across party lines, is the first credible candidate to challenge Kerry in over a decade. Although major media outlets are not giving Beatty a second glance, and/or downplaying the significance of his candidacy, the fact remains that he is ultimately qualified and more to the point: “likable” - Kerry is not.

What will be the biggest factors in this predictable upset in November? One is the fact that the largest block of voters in the State of Massachusetts are registered Independents and those are the voters calling for change. Additionally, infighting within the state Democrat Party over Kerry’s support of Barrack Obama may play a more significant outcome in the primary as well as the general election. Massachusetts Democrats voted overwhelmingly to support Hillary Clinton in the February primary and those voters are apparently still resentful, despite the call for party unity. (Look at the outcome of the State Convention.) Additionally, money is not always a factor in a campaign, although it is widely reported as the key to the win, one only need look at Iowa where Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas Governor, swept the state after investing only $90,000. Huckabee continued to win larger southern states with the same budget scenario. Therefore, it is not the cash on hand, that will determine future elections - rather it is the grassroots effort put forth by a campaign that will make the difference. The grassroots candidate, Beatty, will fare well against a weak Kerry.