Philadeplphia – All Eye’s on Kerry’s Woes and Polls

John Kerry is, indeed, a national figure within the Democrat party, a post on Philly Blogs was less than kind to the Baystate’s Junior Senator. Kerry supporterse made light of the Suffolk Univesrity Poll and pointed to a June 1, Rasumussen Poll (featured prominently in most news sources as the reason Kerry will hold onto his seat)that gave a slightly different take on Kerry's position. What surprises is the venom towards Kerry that can be found outside his “home” state.

The Rasmussen Poll taken on June 1st came as a surprise to residents of the state - the Suffolk University Poll, not so much. Kerry, due to the fact that he is a national figure, and important to the Democrat Party because they hold a narrow margin in the Senate and rely heavily on Joe Lieberman at this point, need Kerry to maintain his seat - especially in light of the fact that Kennedy's illness is going to eventually leave another gap in the defensive line. The notion that polls are accurate with 500 respondents asked leading questions is somewhat remarkable, to say the least. Large polling firms are hired to conduct polls; the questions are formulated in such a way as the outcome is most often predictable. What makes the Suffolk poll seem less skewed is the fact that they did not name an alternative to Kerry, (as in, if the election were held today, would you vote for: a, b, c), and that they released the percentages of independent voters (the largest voting block in Massachusetts). What outsiders do not see, when looking at the political make-up of the state is the fact that the state is not heavily Democrat, as widely reported, it is indeed heavily Independent. This trend has grown over the past 4 years, with both Democrat and Republican Party losing equal numbers of registered voters (also not widely reported in the press - the focus being on the Republican losses). The reason that there is a majority of Democrat office holders is simply that they continue to run unopposed. The Republican Party has not, in the past, invested in Massachusetts candidates; suddenly however, there is a greater interest in the state. Jeff Beatty, the Republican candidate is on a non-stop campaign tour across the state - his focus in on those independents and disenfranchised Democrats - add to that - he is a credible candidate. (Although the press and the Democrat party point out that since he lost one race in one small congressional district, (which also happens to be where a majority of the state's registered democrats reside), Beatty is a weak candidate.) Kerry must fight a two-front war in order to maintain his seat. This is one instance where the bets are off the table on Kerry. Watch Massachusetts closely - this is the bastion of the Progressive think which has spread through the Democrat party like a cancer, the traditional rank and file Democrats are the same ones who pushed for O'Reilly (a Progressive), at their convention - it was a clear message to Kerry and to the party as a whole - from inside the Party. Kerry may have problems in the primary - never mind the general election.