John Kerry – Suffolk University Poll – Time for Retirement

A poll released by Suffolk University on June 16, suggests that John Kerry, who has held his Senate seat in Massachusetts for 24 years, may be facing an uphill battle this November. In a poll of 500 voters across Massachusetts, 51% want a change, while only 38% thought he should be re-elected. This is not a significant change from a 2007 university poll in which 37% thought Kerry should hold onto his seat.

The poll, according to the Gloucester Times did not mention an alternate to Kerry. The Times article focused on Kerry’s Democrat rival Ed O’Reilly, who will face Kerry in the September primary. Kerry is expected to handily beat O’Reilly in that contest due to his significant cash on hand. Should John Kerry manage to win the primary, he would then face Republican Candidate Jeff Beatty. Beatty, who has strong grassroots appeal, which incidentially runs across party lines, is the first credible candidate to challenge Kerry in over a decade. Although major media outlets are not giving Beatty a second glance, and/or downplaying the significance of his candidacy, the fact remains that he is ultimately qualified and more to the point: “likable” - Kerry is not.

What will be the biggest factors in this predictable upset in November? One is the fact that the largest block of voters in the State of Massachusetts are registered Independents and those are the voters calling for change. Additionally, infighting within the state Democrat Party over Kerry’s support of Barrack Obama may play a more significant outcome in the primary as well as the general election. Massachusetts Democrats voted overwhelmingly to support Hillary Clinton in the February primary and those voters are apparently still resentful, despite the call for party unity. (Look at the outcome of the State Convention.) Additionally, money is not always a factor in a campaign, although it is widely reported as the key to the win, one only need look at Iowa where Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas Governor, swept the state after investing only $90,000. Huckabee continued to win larger southern states with the same budget scenario. Therefore, it is not the cash on hand, that will determine future elections - rather it is the grassroots effort put forth by a campaign that will make the difference. The grassroots candidate, Beatty, will fare well against a weak Kerry.