Who’s polling who? WSJ/NBC Poll and Obama Lead

Time (in partnership with CNN), ran a story this past weekend on a recent WSJ/NBC poll that shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points. In retrospect, one would expect Obama to gain in points, especially after clinching the nomination, but the lead of 6 points overall, is not exactly a stunning bump. What might be suspect about this particular poll is that it trends predictable compared to past electoral makeup’s with Obama leading among women, blacks, Catholics and Independents and McCain among whites, males and superman woman and evangelicals. What is most interesting however is that the poll indicates Obama with a hefty advantage among Hispanic voters, 68 to 28% in favor of Obama?

The question is - which 500 New Yorkers, or San Francisco, or Los Angeles residents did they query for this particular poll?

Perhaps they should be polling in Massachusetts, where the general public is the exact demographic one finds allegedly backing the Democrat party. Generally, Hispanics are conservative, and that will be the group to watch this election cycle. Women are another wild card this time around. CNN commentators and college students do not represent the majority of women. Women in the Bay state are still a bit put off by Obama, and a bit angry at those elected officials that immediately jumped aboard the Obama express, after the vast majority of the state (with the exception of college enclaves) voted Clinton.

One longs for the most accurate poll, one that included 20,000 or 30, 0000 respondents, not the 500 or 1000 random registered voters used in polls by a variety of “news” organization to try and sway the general public. Watch the Vegas Line, the smart money is on McCain, with demographics that have traditionally trended Democrat crossing party lines. It will be the independents or unenrolled voters in this election cycle – and although NBC polls indicate Obama is making inroads in that group – it is a group that McCain has owned since he took to the Senate floor.