MA 2010 Election Update – Roll Call of Dems who Voted to Stay in Session to avoid Tax Increase in 2011 – Not One Mass. Rep. on the List!

The House voted to adjourn yesterday and put aside voting on legislation that would have prevented a tax increase come January, 2011. Those Democrats voting to stay in Session, along with all Republicans are shown below. Who’s missing? Every single Democrat Congressional Representative from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts – who voted with House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi (who cast the vote that put the House on mini-vacation) to come home and campaign. One more reason why anti-incumbent sentiment is running high in Massachusetts are stunts like this.

Putting one’s “career” over the interests of the tax payers is a problem; therefore, when the opportunity arises, in every district in the Commonwealth, the question should be poised:
“Why, Congressmen, (or woman) did you vote to come home and campaign, instead of saving me from paying more taxes? Followed by: “and why should you keep your job?”


Every single member of the House of Representatives (your congressional representative) and Senator knew that allowing the Bush Tax cuts to expire would mean your income would decrease, yet the people we hired decided their income was more important – they needed to get back to their districts to campaign. Was it each and every single Congressional Representative or Senator – hardly. In fact, the House of Representatives passed the motion to adjourn and not vote on the Bush Tax Cuts by one vote – the tie breaker - Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

That means that thirty nine Democrats joined all Congressional Republicans in voting to stay in session and vote on your income. Those Democrats who joined all Republicans and voted no are:

AL Bright
AZ Giffords
AZ Kirkpatrick
AZ Mitchell
CA McNerney
CO Markey
GA Marshall
ID Minnick
IL Bean
IL Foster
IN Donnelly
IN Ellsworth
LA MeLancon
MD Kratovil
ME Michaud
MI Peters
MI Schauer
MS Childers
MS Taylor
NC McIntyre
NC Shuler
NH Arcuri
NJ Adler
NM Heinrich
NV Titus
NY Bishop
NY McMahon
OH Driehaus
OH Kilroy
OH Space
PA Altmire
PA Carney
PA Murphy
PA Perriello
PA Sestak
SD Sandlin
TX Edwards
VA Connolly
VA Nye

If your Democrat Congressman or Congresswoman is not on the above list, they are responsible for increasing your income. Nothing more, nothing less.

Election 2010 - Massachusetts - How Many Long Held Democrat Congressional Seats will be Held by Republicans come November?

There is a change in the political think of the voters in the Bay State, and as stated before, this was in evidence prior to Scott Brown’s run at the Senate. Once that run was successful, those districts that had one or two Republicans who had stepped forward to run for Congress suddenly had multiple candidates vying for primary win. In addition, where there had been no opposition previously, opposition did develop. The question one has to ask is how viable are those “predictions of Massachusetts, deeply entrenched, Democrats being defeated in November?” or for that matter, all districts as “Safe Democrat” – In reality, there are several seats where it is more than possible, and heading towards highly probable that they are in play – this based on limited access to internal polls, as well as a general angst of the people in the Commonwealth over the Party in Power. Although there has been this type of voter emotion before, which allowed Ronald Regan to claim the Bay State twice, one has to understand the Congressional and Senate seats remained in the hands of the Democrats.

What has changed? Several points to consider: this is a mid-term not a general election where the focus is more on the Presidential candidates than on those running for Congress, the aforementioned angst which is fueled by high deficits, and unemployment, as well as a “brand” gone bad – sets the stage for an electorate that is ready to try something different. (Which has happened, although, admittedly rarely.)

The make-up of the Bay State’s electorate is considered in the equation as the majority of the electorate is “unenrolleds” (50 plus percent), and although the Republican Party in Massachustts has the lowest registration of the two major parties, it is being now being boosted by those Green Party, Libertarian and unenrolleds and yes, Scott Brown Democrats, who, as national polls indicate, are not buying slogans.

Lacking any public polling, which may or may not take place until after the September 14, primary, it is difficult to call a specific race, but one can, based on the aforementioned, make a prediction.
Over at Wicked Local (Gatehouse Media) a guest op-ed piece by Robert E. Kelly opines that “Single Party Reign Could End in Massachustts. Mr. Kelly then goes on to rate which districts he feels are in jeopardy – basing his predictions on the outcome of the Brown/Coakley Senate Race, and including the caveat that that voter angst must stay the same to see these predictions come to fruition.

If anything, as of this writing, Massachusetts voters are more a) interested in politics earlier in the game, and especially who is running against whom, and b) the angst is increasing daily. To read the entire article visit: Wicked Local, Swansea News Opinions

Mr. Kelley’s Predictions with this blogs comments:

On District 1, Mr. Kelly feels this may be in play – a point where this blog departs. The reasoning, that district (using Mr. Kelly’s model) was 99.9% for Coakley against Brown, and Congressman Olver is Massachusetts version of Robert Byrd. Is it possible, yes, anything is possible, but probable? Unless there is a huge turn in voter angst (pitchfork level), the Challenger, one William Gunn, will have his work cut out for him.
District 2- Incumbent Richard Neal as vulnerable – this is agreed. Neal is extremely vulnerable – to the point where he has called in Bill Clinton to stump for him in the districts largest population centers: Chicopee and Springfield, where Neal has the biggest problems. Odds are on the winner of the Republican Primary to go to Washington – This district should be polled come October 1st.

District 3 – McGovern – agreed also endangered – Worcester Country has become somewhat of a red streak in the Middle of the blue Bay State for the past few election cycles. This District should be polled.

District 4 – Although incumbent Barney Frank is probably the most high profile target of the angst felt in the Bay State and elsewhere, within his own district, he has the distinction of being likeable – at least up until this year. In order for a challenger to unseat Barney – whichever Republican emerges from the Primary must have a) scads of cash to counter Frank, and boots on the ground, specifically in the larger population centers where the ground game needs to be focused.
What makes this race interesting is that there does exists a schism in the Democrat Party itself, where Rachael Brown is running against Frank, coupled with rumors of Frank’s retirement. Therefore, this district is one where anything can happen, and it makes for extreme political entertainment. Frank can be bested, by a Republican but the effort will have to be herculean – and then, it may not be Frank rather a Democrat by the name of Rachel Brown facing the Republican in November - Until the primary – this is anyone’s best guess.

District 5- Niki Tsongas – agreed – this district is in play, District 6 – Agreed Safe (for now), District 7 – Markey is one of the powerful players in this Democrat Congressional Delegation– somewhat possible, but not probable. District 8 – Stephen Lynch – disagree with the assessment – Lynch is safer than most and District 9 – Capuano – running virtually unopposed – safe. Finally, District 10 – Free-for-All, seat will go to a Republican – agreed.

Therefore, although looking at these races, sans national polling data, but based on voter angst, electorate make-up and (in the case of Mr. Kelly) the Brown-Coakley outcome) one can get a better picture of the Commonwealth’s political make-up and possible representation after the November 4th mid-term. In any event, the Commonwealth should be one of the more interesting states to watch in October, as several of these races are definitely in play.




MA Congressional District Predictions As of August, 2010 - (This is illustrative - understanding blogger has no graphic skills)

Massachusetts Senate Race to Fill Kennedy’s Seat Update - See’s Brown, Capuano and Coakley Confirmed on Ballot - Analysis

Scott Brown, (R) for Mass. 2010 Senate - image Boston.com

The race to fillthe late Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat, has three contenders confirmed as of October 16th. Scott Brown, the Republican State Senator, filed 17,000 (10,000 required) signatures with the Secretary of State’s office, with U.S. Rep. Michael Capuano filing “more than” 10,000 (according to the Springfield Republican), and State Attorney General, Martha Coakley, filed “approximately 17,000” signatures. The deadline for filing for party affiliated candidates is October 20th; non-affiliated candidates have until Nov. 20th to file with the Secretary of State. State primaries will take place on December 8th, with the general election taking place on January 19th, 2010. As of this writing, candidates Stephen Pagliuca, Boston Celtics Owner (Democrat), Alan Khazei (Democrat) and Bob Burr, Canton Selectman (Republican) have yet to file the necessary signatures, leaving Coakley and Capuano to face off in the Democrat primary.

Michael Capuano will face Coakley in Senate Primary - image Masslive

It’s all about the cash:

According to the Boston Globe, (full data not yet available on FEC Website for this election) Coakley has over 2 million on hand, Capuano $344,000 and Brown $179,000; (which may or may not include a maximum contribution from Mitt Romney's PAC, also of note Brown is the only candidate to date to receive funds from Romney) giving the Globe the nod to name Coakley as the clear front runner. In the battle for the hearts and minds of the disaffected and financially strapped citizens of the Commonwealth, most of whom are unenrolled (showing no party affiliation); a “reasonable person” would assume that the candidate with the most cash on hand automatically wins, especially if that candidate in Massachusetts is a Democrat.

That said looking at not too distant past race, the 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus brings that theory to naught. Mitt Romney spent millions in Iowa, drove a bus across the state, and was soundly trumped by little known (at the time) Mike Huckabee who spent a little more than $80,000 – total. It was a sound grassroots campaign that combined dedicated grassroots support with a savvy web team; that took down Goliath (Romney).

Martha Coakley (D) MA Senate Candidate, image: metrowest.com

Additionally, Coakley did pick up the endorsement of the SEIU, otherwise known as the White House “Union of Choice”, leaving one to conclude that Ms. Coakley is looked upon favorably as a “progressive”. Therefore, a primary between Capuano and Coakley, would, in all probability, place Coakley on the ballot to face Brown.

Name recognition and the media:

In the Suffolk University Poll conducted on September 15, (the only poll to include all candidates), Coakley, The State’s Attorney General, has the best showing, with only 12% unknown, 53% favorable, 16% unfavorable, and 19% undecided. Capuano received, 33% unknown, 16% favorable, 14% unfavorable and 37% undecided. Finally, Brown had a 39% unknown, a 20% favorable, a 13% unfavorable and 28% undecided. Looking at the favorable, Coakley has the clear lead, and is the best known (being the State’s Attorney General), that said, Brown, bests Capuano in favorable, and had, as of that poll, the highest unknown percentage. Both Capuano and Coakley are running television ads, most likely in the Eastern portion of the State, and having the larger budgets to date, need to first play to the base and those unenrolled inclined to vote for a Democrat in 2010.

How do the candidates stack up with the ever growing importance of social media? (Which, more than one social media firm suggest that the Obama campaigns use of social media networks secured his election.) Face Book: Martha Coakley (See SEIU), has 3,781 friends on her personal page and 4,681 “fans”, Capuano has 866 supporters and Brown, has 4,563 friends on his personal page, with 4,151 “fans”. This gives Brown, to date, a slight edge on Coakley. On the other major network site “Twitter”, Brown has 736 followers, with Martha Coakley at 794. While these numbers in Social Networking terms are miniscule at best, it is interesting to note that the two front runners are evenly matched.

The Election in General

First, Coakley must get through the primary against Capuano, who has time to get his message across the entire Commonwealth thereby increasing his name recognition, bringing up his favorability. Additionally, Massachusetts has yet to elect a woman to a major high profile office (Govenor, or Senate), therefore, despite cash and name recognition, Coakley also faces the Massachusetts Glass Ceiling within her own party first. Should she make it through the primary she will then face Republican, Scott Brown, who would have had the time to court the unenrolled, boost his name recognition with not only media buys, but grassroots county by county appearances. From the primary on December 8th to the General Election on January 19th, both candidates must secure their base, and more importantly the unenrolleds, Coakley has the additional burden of gender. Although Clinton did receive the most votes in the 2008 primary in the Bay State (a proud moment for Massachusetts), she was soundly rebuked by Kennedy and Kerry who came out with an early endorsement for Obama. Given this Scenario it is not a “given” that the next Senator from Massachusetts will be a Democrat, rather it would lend to a tighter race than anticipated. Harvard Law Apparently Agrees

Note on Polls
The Suffolk polls methodology, 8% of those polled are from Suffolk University, (which may or may not include a Conservative or two) and the voter registration makeup is slightly skewed: Democrats 39% (2008 actual 36.7%), Republicans 15% (2008 actual 11.62%) and Unenrolled 44% (2008 actual 50.75%) (source Mass. Secretary of State In the scenario according to Suffolk, both major parties were given a larger percentage - and the unenrolled, were underrepresented by 6% - with a margin of error of + or – “4.4%”.

Andy Card Endorses MA Senator Brown – Brown announcement Saturday at 2:00 P.M. – Obama Presses Hard for MA Senate Replacement - Fear & Loathing in D.C

Scott Brown, to Make Announcment Re: MA U.S. Senate Race Today at 2 PM - photo: Facebook

Former White House Chief of Staff, Andy Card, formally endorsed State Senator Scott Brown (R), yesterday while announcing his decision not to run for the U.S. Senate Seat made vacant due to Ted Kennedy’s passing. Card stated: “Now is not the right time for me to enter a political race.
In these critical times, I know that Massachusetts would be well served to have Senator Scott Brown as the Commonwealth's next United States Senator. He has my full support."

Following Card’s decision and endorsement, Brown indicated that he would be making an announcement today at 2:00 p.m. from the Statehouse. Brown would join Republican Bob Burr, a Canton Selectman, and Democrat Martha Coakley, the Attorney General of the Commonwealth, as the third to formally announce a candidacy for this Senate Seat. Several Democrats who were considered to be possible successors to Kennedy have bowed out of the race; U.S. Representative Ed Markey, (D-MA) and more importantly, Joe Kennedy who was seen by local media as key to the tone of the race (Kennedy Dynasty)

Others who are either considering or whose names have been bandied about in the press include: Former Baseball Player Curt Shilling, who would run as an Independent, Progressive Democrat, John Tierney, Republican Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney, currently working with John Ashcroft’s firm, Stephen Lynch Democrat , U.S. Congress, MA 9th District Michael Capuano, Democrat, U.S. CongressMassachusetts 8th Congressional District and The Boston Globe’s personal favorite Kennedy’s widow, Vicki Kennedy, who has already indicated she would not want an appointment, but has not yet issued a formal statement one way or the other on running for the seat.

As of this moment, Coakley enjoys strong support from within her own party, while Brown, who is more “populist” in nature, appears to enjoy local party support, and grassroots support that covers the entire Bay State and includes both Independents and Moderate Democrats. Depending upon the number of Democrats who enter the race, infighting may weaken any candidate running up to the primary to be held on December 9th; although Coakley is said to have sufficient contributions to continue through with the campaign. The same might be said on the Republican side with Brown appearing to have the most grassroots support (critical in any race), and the ability to raise funds (see grassroots), the Republican field is already narrow, and given that a primary among those who have announced would produce Brown as the candidate, should the State GOP give its blessing, the National Committee would follow suit adding considerably to Brown’s war chest. Brown would then be in the unique position to become the Commonwealth’s first U.S. Republican Senator since Edward Brook, (served from 1967 to 1979).

Pundits who are consistently bent on calling Massachusetts the Bluest State, should consider the fact that the population has changed (considerable drop in population leading to the loss of a Congressional Seat), the predominant political designation (and growing) is “unenrolled” or independent (Republican Governor’s are mainstream in Massachusetts), and the current political climate does not favor one party over the other.

They key factor in Brown’s Senate Race will be national support (from individuals, pacs and the GOP) With Barack Obamapushing for an “interim replacement” in the Bay state (directly), one understands that the climate has truly changed. If the Democrats, from the top down, we’re confident that a Democrat could take Kennedy’s Seat in the January Special Election, there would be no reason to install a name brand (enter Vicki Kennedy), replacement who, the President (and his advisors) erroneously believe, would be better positioned to best a Republican in the special election. As of now, it is speculated that the Democrats intend to push the Health Care Reform bill through the legislative process using the nuclear option (should they have enough support within their own ranks). With that in mind, a replacement for Kennedy, at this juncture, is moot, therefore, it is not only possible, but probable, that a savvy, competent, well-liked and well-funded, Scott Brown will be the next Republican U.S. Senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

Massachusetts Special Election to Fill Vacant Kennedy Seat Set for 1/19/09 – DNC – Banking on Liberal Massachusetts to Elect a Democrat

Former U.S. District Attorney, Michael Sullivan, mentioned as a possible candidate for Kennedy's Seat- image bostonherald

There is a great deal of speculation regarding Senator Ted Kennedy’s vacant senate seat; specifically who his replacement might be. One constant theme is that the seat will be filled by a Democrat – this is based on several assumptions, the most interesting being the fact that Massachusetts is a Democrat controlled state.

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts, although run almost exclusively by one party, has an interesting make-up when it comes to registered voters. Only 36 percent of the registered voters are designated as Democrat, with the largest percentage (50 plus %) designated as independent (unenrolled). Additionally, according to the latest Zogby Poll, President Obama’s approval rating is now at 42% - as 52% of the nation voted for Obama, one might theorize, that 1 in 8 voters (mostly unenrolled) are shopping elsewhere for their politicians.. Therefore it is not inconceivable that, given a special election, a Republican might take the seat.

Historically, however, the last Republican Senator elected in Massachusetts, was was Edward William Brooke in 1966(incidentally, Brooke's was also the first African-American elected to the Senate “since the reconstruction”.) As the decades passed, Massachusetts voters have chosen several Republican governors, (Weld, Swift and Romney the most recent), yet not one Federal representative has emerged since Brooke.

The Replacements: On the Democrat side, the following names have been bandied about in the press: especially Victoria Kennedy and Joseph Kennedy III – the thought process being that the seat “belongs to the Kennedys”, and that no matter which Kennedy runs, the people of Massachusetts will pull the lever (branding)for any "Kennedy". Other names on the DNC list: Rep. Michael Capuano and Martha Coakley (Attorney General) - of the two Capuano would be in lockstep with the administration, Coakley appears to be more independent minded – similar to a Hillary Clinton.

On the flip side, the Republican potential candidates (thrown in as an afterthought by most media), are former Lieutenant Governor, Kerry Healy, who ran an unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign against Deval Patrick (negative advertising and the Republican Brand led to her demise), and more interesting Michael J. Sullivan, a former U.S. District Attorney who resigned his position on April 9, 2009. At the time, Sullivan took a position with John Ashcroft's Law Firm. Sullivan, has the credentials and name recognition (positive) to prove assumptions false.

Although anyone who is contemplating a run at the seat, has little time in which to prepare (the primary is set for December 9, with the general January 19th. That said, the wild card in Massachusetts will be the independent vote, it would behoove the GOP (which consistently abandons Massachusetts on the false belief that it is a “lost cause” due to the overwhelming majority of Democrats!”)to take note. Should a Republican run, in this climate, one with the credentials and branding of a Sullivan, come out early and run on merit, then all bets may be off. Republican Federal Representatives from the State of Massachusetts are not unlike Hurricane's. They do occur, infrequently, true, but historically certain.