Massachusetts Special Election to Fill Vacant Kennedy Seat Set for 1/19/09 – DNC – Banking on Liberal Massachusetts to Elect a Democrat

Former U.S. District Attorney, Michael Sullivan, mentioned as a possible candidate for Kennedy's Seat- image bostonherald

There is a great deal of speculation regarding Senator Ted Kennedy’s vacant senate seat; specifically who his replacement might be. One constant theme is that the seat will be filled by a Democrat – this is based on several assumptions, the most interesting being the fact that Massachusetts is a Democrat controlled state.

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts, although run almost exclusively by one party, has an interesting make-up when it comes to registered voters. Only 36 percent of the registered voters are designated as Democrat, with the largest percentage (50 plus %) designated as independent (unenrolled). Additionally, according to the latest Zogby Poll, President Obama’s approval rating is now at 42% - as 52% of the nation voted for Obama, one might theorize, that 1 in 8 voters (mostly unenrolled) are shopping elsewhere for their politicians.. Therefore it is not inconceivable that, given a special election, a Republican might take the seat.

Historically, however, the last Republican Senator elected in Massachusetts, was was Edward William Brooke in 1966(incidentally, Brooke's was also the first African-American elected to the Senate “since the reconstruction”.) As the decades passed, Massachusetts voters have chosen several Republican governors, (Weld, Swift and Romney the most recent), yet not one Federal representative has emerged since Brooke.

The Replacements: On the Democrat side, the following names have been bandied about in the press: especially Victoria Kennedy and Joseph Kennedy III – the thought process being that the seat “belongs to the Kennedys”, and that no matter which Kennedy runs, the people of Massachusetts will pull the lever (branding)for any "Kennedy". Other names on the DNC list: Rep. Michael Capuano and Martha Coakley (Attorney General) - of the two Capuano would be in lockstep with the administration, Coakley appears to be more independent minded – similar to a Hillary Clinton.

On the flip side, the Republican potential candidates (thrown in as an afterthought by most media), are former Lieutenant Governor, Kerry Healy, who ran an unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign against Deval Patrick (negative advertising and the Republican Brand led to her demise), and more interesting Michael J. Sullivan, a former U.S. District Attorney who resigned his position on April 9, 2009. At the time, Sullivan took a position with John Ashcroft's Law Firm. Sullivan, has the credentials and name recognition (positive) to prove assumptions false.

Although anyone who is contemplating a run at the seat, has little time in which to prepare (the primary is set for December 9, with the general January 19th. That said, the wild card in Massachusetts will be the independent vote, it would behoove the GOP (which consistently abandons Massachusetts on the false belief that it is a “lost cause” due to the overwhelming majority of Democrats!”)to take note. Should a Republican run, in this climate, one with the credentials and branding of a Sullivan, come out early and run on merit, then all bets may be off. Republican Federal Representatives from the State of Massachusetts are not unlike Hurricane's. They do occur, infrequently, true, but historically certain.