MA Special Senate Election - Markey-Gomez Sparing Ads, Gomez Agrees to Debate, Markey Polling Single Digits – Electoral Dysfunction Weighs on Race

The Candidates - Race is not a given for Markey - image ABCNews

Gabriel Gomez, the MA Senate GOP candidate has begun to run adscountering rival, Ed Markey’s (D-MA) somewhat misleading advertisements. (Boston.com) Markey’s ads suggest that the ex-Navy Seal, Gomez, is over the top for not supporting certain aspects of a gun bill, which, since Markey is vying for a Senate seat he should be aware that any gun legislation died in the Senate.

In viewing the two ads, the difference is in the delivery: Markey’s dark and foreboding ad suggests that Gomez is the root cause of the Newton School Shoot(Video – Ed Markey.com), while the Gomez Advertisement calls out Markey for being over-the-top in his advertising, makes a few digs regarding Markey’s 37 year career in politics, and goes to upbeat in a heartbeat(Video via YouTube).

Looking at these particular two ads, one can see a stark difference between the two candidates – and in State that has over 50% of the electorate as “unenrolled”, the upbeat plays better, and has in past elections, regardless of political affiliation.

However, Markey maintains a slight lead over Gomez in the race, according to Mass Live, the Springfield Republican’s website the last national poll, from Public Policy Polling, has Markey leading by 7 points, and somehow pulling Republican’s, which sounds like a stretch, even in Massachusetts. The Poll data heresuggests all is not smooth sailing for the Democrat, regardless of the local polls showing double digit leads, and the boost the media tends to give any Democrat in MA (or elsewhere, for the most part). In the marginals one finds that the race is tight, with Markey leading 48 to 41, with 11% undecided. Additionally, the favorability rankings are telling, Markey has a rating of 48 positive, 40 negative and 11% unsure, while Gomez has the a ranking of 42 positive, 34 negative, with a whopping 24% to convince. The poll was taken May 13th, and has a plus or minus 3.3% margin of error. (PPP document via Scribd)

Those numbers aside, the problem will be the general malaise that surrounds the special – there simply isn’t much enthusiasm – period. Unless both campaigns go on a major media blitz soon, one might suggest that over half of the electorate has no clue there is a race, and as avoiding the news, right, left, or center, has become an art form, only those who are even halfheartedly interested in the state politics, will hit the voting booths. That leaves little room for error, even with the dead voting.

Then there is the whole mess in Washington DC, with the IRS hearings taking place, Benghazi still on the burner, and the harassment of journalist by the Administration (Fox, AP, CBS)- and the public can’t help but be aware of what’s going on, regardless of party. The latest Jay Leno Monologue(here), is a scathing rebuke of the Administration. and Leno is not alone. Jon Stewart ”unloaded” on the President over the IRS Scandal. - Finally, Bi-partisanship.

Using tactics that would make Nixon blush, and bungling right and left through the maze of simple questions posed by Congress, (and both parties are asking), the risk of the President remaining unscathed through he Memorial Day Weekend, even in Massachusetts are less than average.



Markey on the Campaign Trail - (image Huffington post) compare to



Martha Coakley on the campaign trail against Brown -image Huffington Post

That helps Gomez as he recently had a visit from John McCain, who is popular with a few Republican’s in the Bay State, but not as popular as say, Marco Rubio would fare. (That’s among the Republican base – which is limited.) Gomez has the opportunity from now until the election to answer attacks with fact ads, going to upbeat – with an opportunity to pull those 11% undecided’s in to his fold. The results, if the polling stands, and the environment continues, should show a 2 to3 point victory. One thing about Massachusetts Democrats – in recalling the 2010 race between Coakley and Brown, Democrats bailed on Coakley – either staying home and/or voting for Brown. It was basically a personality problem, and Martha is charismatic compared to Ed Markey (see photos above). Union membership, as well, does not indicate how one will vote when push comes to shove.

MA Special Election Update – Unions Semi-Endorse Markey – Markey “Grassroots” Spooks Neighbors, Land on Police Blotter!

Ed Markey and Gabriel Gomez (right) - Gomez has something to smile about - image KTIV News 4 Sioux City IOWA

How special is the Massachusetts Special Election between Ed Markey (Democrat) and Gabriel Gomez (GOP)? Markey manages to continue to deliver headlines that both amaze and amuse. Firstly, the ACLU has endorsed Markey, which is a given (as he is a Democrat), however, it was “grudgingly” – not wholeheartedly, according to the Boston Globe, who’s headline phrased it as politically correctly as possible: “AFLCIO Despite Some Concerns, Endorses Markey for Senate” The concerns arise in the fact that a good percentage of the unions under the AFLCIO Banner supported Lynch in the primary. Lynch was not the Al Gore of Massachusetts, who would, with tons of regulations, and his affinity for Global Warming, cost some unions in the Bay State their jobs.

Markey is making it easier for those union members who just can’t get excited about the Congressman, to perhaps cross a party line and vote for Gabriel Gomez – who actually looks like he worked a day or two in his life, and is most likely in favor of supporting businesses that would have a greater impact on the economy in Massachusetts and beyond – one – the Keystone Pipeline.

One might even go so far as saying, without a gaffe, without so much as sticking his foot in his mouth, by the very nature of his personality and his beliefs, Markey is handing traditional Democrats to Gomez – Scott Brown must be wondering how Gomez could get so bloody lucky!

On the lighter side of campaigning, the Bedford Patch police log has the following reports of “several Ed Markey Campaign Workers

Monday, April 22

10:25 a.m.- The Bedford Police Department received an alarm activation for 386 Davis Road. The responding officers reported an open door to the garage, but no access could be gained to the house. There were no signs of a break in. 1:37 p.m.- An officer responded to reports of a possible solicitor near 100 Old Billerica Road. The officer reported the individual was out seeking votes for Ed Markey, not soliciting.

2:52 p.m.- Police received multiple calls reporting a car crash at 2 Great Road. No one was transported to the hospital with injuries.

3:22 p.m.- Police received a call from 6 Overlook Drive reporting a suspicious black SUV drove up and down the road several times. The responding officer reported the individuals in the vehicle were campaigning.

4:19 p.m.- A caller reported a suspicious individual peeking in the windows at 23 Neillian Way. The responding officer spoke with the individual who reported he was handing out literature for Ed Markey.

One can’t make this stuff up!! How frightening are these campaign workers anyhow? One has to hand it to whoever hired the staff – or fire them – as one normally does not campaign and get votes by peeping through windows. Mace maybe, votes no. The Black SUV cruising by is more reminiscent of drug dealers than enthusiastic voters – what about Markey’s fresh faced younger supporters? Oh, that’s right, with Gomez!

Time to look at the next reliable national poll as June draws closer, and the TV and Radio commercials start. Down by 4 points, with a margin of error of 2-12, out of the gate, (PPP), Gomez appears to have the edge. He is also a relentless campaigner, and one wonders if Markey was up to the task. There was a poll during the primary that pointed out one salient fact: Steve Lynch was the only Democrat that would get the votes necessary to win – Markey lost to everyone in that poll – but the DNC, in its infinite wisdom, became the GOP and pushed Markey along. That may end up costing them a Senate Seat.

Trouble in Beantown! MA 2013 Senate Race - Markey up by Only 4 Points over Gomez – Michelle Obama to Boston for Markey Fundraiser on May 29th

Markey (left) and Gomez (right) - image AP via Politico

Ed Markey, the long-serving Democrat Congressman from the Massachusetts 5th District, is up against some narrow odds against newcomer, GOP candidate, Gabriel Gomez. A national poll from PPP (which is a Democrat leaning pollster), has Markey and Gomez only 4 percentage points apart – with a margin of error of 2.5%.

Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he's at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He's at 31/50 with independents.

For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He's up 47/31 with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.

(PPP)

The pollster goes on to note that the good news for Markey is that Obama is very popular in Massachusetts. However, that did not work out so well for Martha Coakley who ran against Scott Brown in the 2010 special election.

Coakley was considered to have made mistakes, gaffes such as being unable to name a sports team; however, one might also point to the fact that in yet another high profile race, Markey is nowhere near the 15 point lead that Coakley had out of the gate. Coakley was known statewide, while Brown was little known. In this instance, Gomez had been working the state in person for months, as well in advertising buys introducing himself during the primary, to households throughout Massachusetts. Markey on the other hand, is not that well known, and his advertising amounted to little more than Al Gore like claims and the usual pro-choice messaging. Social issues are not a pivotal issue in this particular race, as Gomez is the candidate the Democrats wish they had.

Gomez is young, Hispanic, smart, successful and a former Navy Seal – compared to Markey, who looks like a great-grandfather of NARAL.

How much trouble is Markey in? Given the popularity of Obama in Massachusetts, the Boston Globe is reporting thatMichelle Obama will be headlining a fundraiser for Markey on the 29th of May – the ticket is priced at $37,600. The Globe goes on to note that the White House is prepared to do anything to help Markey – a reliable progressive voice in the Congress. The problem with Markey is he won by a margin of 58 to 43 percent.(Boston Globe) which sounds like a solid Democrat lead, however, those Lynch Democrats, and the Republican’s, and Independent's that voted for Lynch as a Blue Dog Democrat, will, in all likelihood, end up in the Gomez column.(See PPP Poll for Verification.)

Again, as a reminder, Obama personally came to Massachusetts to campaign for Martha Coakley in 2010, and that did not work out as well as expected. (Politico) That may necessary again, considering the circumstances – Gomez is not Scott Brown, he is extremely aggressive, out of the gate, with in-state and out-of-state ground troops that came in during the primaries. Brown did have ground troops, but that came weeks before the special election. There isn’t justification to compare Brown to Gomez (yet, so many articles in the news are dubbing Gomez, the next Scott Brown), they are in no wise similar, the only link is that they both are – Republican’s in Massachusetts, and Gomez is, of all things, an Hispanic Republican.

While Markey represents everything that is wrong is Washington – the status quo.

The only attributes that would make Gomez even more dangerous to the Democrats – if he were a woman and African American, making him a representative of the three “guaranteed Democrat voting blocs”, but one, being Hispanic is dangerous enough. What next? With Texas Senator, Ted Cruz, making a dent in the Democrat “owned” demographic,

Democrat heavyweight William Blaine "Bill" Richardson III has openly questioned the legitimacy of Texas Senator Ted Cruz's Latino heritage based solely on the Texas senator's politics

(On ABC This Week – Richardson stated :)

"I don’t think he should be defined as a Hispanic. He’s a politician from Texas, a conservative state...."

(examiner.com)

Perhaps Richardson ill need to make a trip to Massachusetts with Michelle Obama to remind the base that Gomez isn’t really Hispanic, he’s a Conservative….

Of course, as the progressives try and paint Gomez as “Tea Party”, which is laughable, they may indeed attempt to lump Gomez, with Cruz, Rubio, Martinez – all Hispanic Republican’s – who, despite some Tea Party support for the later three, those Hispanics that are conservative are no different than anyone else who finds that defending their political points of view, comes with labels, some of which have overtones of racism. Democrats (national) for all their party of inclusion hype, are starting to sound a lot like the narrative one hears about the counter-party – racist, angry old white men.

Mass. GOP Senate Primary - Gabriel Gomez Receives National Press, Local Right-Wing Rants on Social Issues – The Perfect Candidate?

The MA Senate GOP Primary Candidates: Gomez, Sullivan, Winslow - image from Springfield Republican, MassLive

Massachusetts needs to fill the U.S. Senate seat left vacant by John Kerry’s appointment as Secretary of State, a primary set for April 30th, with a general election June 25th, sees, what is referred to as a “crowded field” of Republican’s. The State GOP, aiming to be more grassroots, held a straw-poll at a nearby yacht club, which saw Dan Winslow, a State Representative, win the nod, followed by Gabriel Gomez, and in third, former U.S. Attorney (noted as: former George W. Bush official in referenced article). (The Hill Blog) Of course, straw polls, being what they are, are hardly indicative (i.e. Ron Paul, Michelle Bachmann) of what may or may not take place in an actual GOP primary in the State of Massachusetts.

What has piqued this bloggers interest in this particular candidate are several items that have stood out over the past few weeks. First, the candidate himself: Gomez is a first generation American, Hispanic, a former Navy Seal, a businessman in Boston, and he is not a professional Politician (the only one if the field of 5 (combined Democrat and Republicans) in the mix). Secondly, the national media has picked up on Gomez, from the San Francisco Chronicle mentioned in notes on candidates yesterday, and now the Weekly Standard, a conservative publication who was one of the first to push for Scott Brown’s run is highlighting Gomez in multiple articles, including one comparing him to Scott Brown. Gomez is not a Scott Brown, as Brown had been involved in the MA State Senate, and Gomez, has not held an elected office. Further, his positions on social issues are, in a word, sane – He is personally pro-life, but is letting sleeping dogs lie with Roe vs. Wade, and he is not jumping on board the Anti-Gay Marriage platform. This has the rightwing in MA going someone ballistic, at Red Mass Group. Apparently, Gomez is smart enough to know that his position on either of these issues is a moot point, and if he should he change his position to fit that of the fringe- it is the kiss of death in MA politics, and most likely anywhere else in the Northeast. The Problem with values or issues based drum-bangers' is that they muddy the water – the fact is that a U.S. Senator will have no say in the fact that Massachusetts Law supports Gay Marriage, and will also have no say in overturning Roe vs. Wade. Those who use these issues, on both sides of the body politic, are doing so for personal gain only- and have no intention of solving the “problem” – evidence: Roe Vs. Wade was decided in 1973 (Cornell). Since that decision allowing abortions in all 50 states (prior to that it was a State Issue – whereby some states allowed, while others did not) the White House has been graced by both Republicans (notably, Reagan, Bush and Bush) and Democrats (Carter, Clinton, Obama), the House and Senate have changed party hands several times, and on more than one occasion, the Republicans had total control, so did the Democrats – yet – nothing changed, even under the optimum conditions for change to occur. Therefore this issue, and the Gay Marriage Issue, are personal choices, dictated by laws, which the value voter cannot (unless there is a shift towards a theocracy and that is not going to happen), cannot solve.

There is, of course, more criticism, but that is the way with primaries, example: Markey and Lynch, running on the Democrat Ticket are taking a few pot shots. (Or their supporters are which is more to the point.)

Gomez is not shy about reaching out to the growing Hispanic population in Massachusetts – who, as noted in the Weekly Standard piece, overwhelmingly voted for Elizabeth Warren over Scott Brown in the general election – 4 to 1. Although hi bi-lingual ability somehow irked the Boston Globe who’s opinion piece suggested that the tactic of using one’s ability to speak in Spanish, is somehow politically divisive! (Boston Globe – Americans Speak Every Language But only English Unites)

What this tells the casual observer is that the GOP has attracted a talented, patriotic conservative who is also from one of the much coveted voting blocs that is normally thought of as “belonging to the Democrat Party”, and, like Rubio, or Cruz, has given the GOP the nod over the DNC – beginning to dispel the myth that the Republican Party only attracts angry old white men. (Look at DNC Leadership and RNC Leadership – and note if there are any differences). He has irked the left, which has caused a position change to English only, he has irritated the rightwing, and he is getting national attention, which will translate into campaign funds. He is personable, he hit the ground running, and he appears to be able to go the distance. If, and the big if, the primary attracts independents that will switch affiliation and care enough to vote in the primary.

In a State that is dominated by Democrats, with a serious ground game (trolling for votes in nursing homes, and having polling stations conveniently parked at Senior Centers, with a 13 hour time frame to pull out an extra 30,000 voters), it is the candidate that can overcome the 36% Democrat Base, and the 10% of Independents that lean Democrat, to pull off a special election. The candidate that wins the GOP Primary must face that machine. As of now, it is difficult to say if this is even possible – Unless there is a candidate who is receiving national attention in a big way, brining in not only cash but ground support in order to get the message across, and not cave in to the right or the left of Massachusetts politics, but stand steady in the middle. If anyone truly believes that Pro-Life - Winslow, or U.S. Attorney under George W. Bush, Michael Sullivan can pull off a general after winning a primary, then they are, in this opinion, sadly mistaken. Granted, Gomez is untested, however, that adds, not detracts from his chances in a climate that is still anti-Bush – and growing more anti-Government by the day.

If the later does not occur, one can count on Markey or Lynch going to the Senate. (And in that Scenario, if one is a Democrat (not a Progressive) one might want to consider voting for Lynch. (Lynch is running as a populist, man of the people, and middle class, union guy – versus Markey who has been endorsed by Barney Frank.) Side note from historical perspective: Although Gomez identifies himself as a “New Republican” – he is actually a pre-1960’s Republican, the party of choice for Dr. Martin Luther King, and others who understood that those who initialized Emancipation were not Democrats.

Massachusetts Special Senate Election – Five Candidates in Primary for Open Senate Seat – Primary Date: April 30th, 2013 – Election: Tuesday, June 25th

Gabriel Gomez, running for U.S. Senate in MA - photo from SF Gate with article and Photo slide show GOP Senate Hopeful Gomez takes to campaign trail



The Commonwealth of Massachusetts will hold a special election to replace former Senator John Kerry on June 25, 2013. There are five candidates that have submitted signatures for the ballot, three Republicans, Gabriel Gomez, Michael Sullivan and Daniel Winslow, and two Democrats, Congressman Ed Markey and Congressman Stephen Lynch. Should either of the Democrat contenders win the Special Election, the event will trigger another special election to replace a U.S. Congressional Representative.

The primary will be held on the 30th of April with the winners of the respective political parties competing in the election on Tuesday, June 25th. The last date to register to vote in this election is June 5th, according to the Massachusetts Secretary of State’s website.

The Candidates in Brief:

Gabriel Gomez, first generation American, former Navy Seal and businessman – non-politician: Website: www.gomezforma.com

Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney.(Boston.com) – No Website

Daniel Winslow, a Massachusetts State Representative, (view State Profile). – Website: www.danwinslow.com

Stephen Lynch, U.S. Congressman, serving in the Congress since 2001, prior to that he was a State Representative. Voting record in Congress Available at: govtrack.us Campaign Website: www.stephenlynch.com

Ed Markey, U.S. Congressman, serving since 1975. Voting record is available at www.govtrack.us. Campaign website: www.edmarkey.com

News and notes:

wwlp, Springfield, on the candidates expected to make the ballot. (Note: Gabriel Gomez had, up to officially announcing his candidacy, had not spoken to the general media).

However, that has not prevented Gomez to be spotlighted outside of Massachusetts: See: GOP Senate Hopeful Gomez Takes to Campaign Trail" (San Francisco Chronicle)

Ed Markey, according to Facebook ads, is endorsed by Barney Frank.

The Huffington Post on Stephen Lynch and his connection to labor, possibly spoiling Markey’s chances in a primary.

It is anticipated that there will be a low turnout for the primary as well as the Special election.

Of the two parties, preferred matchup would be Gomez, due to his issues, smart press releases, and the fact that the day he announced his candidacy he visited the three key areas of MA. In addition, he’s not an entrenched politician, current politician or former politico, someone with fresh perspective. Plus: his compelling narrative as a first generation of Hispanic descent – and Stephen Lynch, serving less time in the U.S. Congress than Markey, Lynch appears to be more in-touch with Massachusetts (see his narrative on website), and has not made a full-time career (yet) out of government compared to Markey (1975 to present in the U.S. House).