Monday, September 22, 2014

2014 NH-MA Update – Brown Gains on Shaheen, Baker-Coakley Tied - New -Obamacare at Tax Time

The Boston Globe is reporting that Scott Brown’s gain’s against incumbent Democrat Shaheen is due to the “anti-Obamacare” sentiment in the Live Free or Die state (Boston Globe). Given the fact that USA Today announced those who did buy Obamacare with Subsidies will be seeing a penalty at tax time. The gist:

A significant benefit of the Affordable Care Act is the opportunity to receive money-saving tax credits up front to cut the overall cost of health insurance, but now hundreds of thousands of consumers could owe back some of that money next April.

Those affected took advance payments of the premium tax credit for health insurance. Some married couples could owe $600 or $1,500 or $2,500 or even more. It might feel like a raw deal for some who are already suffocating under the escalating costs of health insurance.
(USA Today)

Unless some sort of miracle occurs, and the trust is regained in politicians who have pushed this policy forward (all Democrats), then Brown should handily win in New Hampshire, and have plenty of company in other “safe” Democrat Senate and Congressional races nationwide. If that issue were one alone, it would not play as well, however, there is the immigration issue, the ISIS issue, and a host of other scandals that will have far reaching effects (see 2016).

The Massachusetts Governor's race also appears to be tied up: Rasmussen got involved and found the race at a dead heat with 1 month to go. (MASSLive) Martha is, perhaps, the worst second chance candidate the Mass Democrats could have fostered. Favoring raising taxes, scandal after scandal, and a very weary electorate should see Baker in the corner office. The only thing that makes this a “may” is the ability of the Dem boots on the ground to miraculously come up with 30,000 extra voters 11 hours before any given election (should the odds not be in their favor.) If Baker and the State GOP do not have poll watchers and attorneys present at most of the major cities, then it may still go Martha’s way. The Secretary of the Commonwealth has left the million plus dead and missing voters on the roles for just such an occasion. Incidentally, those same dead voters collect ebt cards . Local news stories, which do not appear to have much of an effect when the balloting is done. In order for Baker to best Coakley he needs to be 5 points up. When that happens, it’s a Baker Governorship.

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