Tuesday, November 05, 2013

Virginia’s Governor’s Race – The Dependence on the Moderate (Romney/Christie) Candidate by the GOP – to the Detriment of the Republican Party.

A Morning rant on the idiocy of the National GOP, leadership, the need for a new Party et. al.

One might say that the national Republican Party is more in tune with winning elections based on popularity and how well a chosen candidate might resemble a Democrat, and Democrats are now Progressives, and in no way resemble the old Democrat guard who were, if judged by today’s political standards – Tea Partiers!

The power concentrated in DC has had enough of those “Tea Party “Conservatives who, for all intents and purposes are a mix of old GOP and DNC think – and, by rights, should be a political party on their own – dumping all together the GOP and those that think they rule, rather than legislate. But, an ideology is not a political party – yet.

This is no more apparent than in the Virginia 2013 Governors race, where the Republican Candidate, Ken Cuccinelli, is about to (by polls and the media) get “trounced” by one “carpet bagging” , Terry McAuliffe – rascal Democrat, whose seen his share of scandals. Public Policy Polling, a Democrat leaning firm, suggests that McAuliffe is leading Tea-Party Cuccinelli by 7 points with a margin of error (it could go either way) of 4 –There is a third party candidate, Libertarian, that is pulling 4 points on this particular poll.

There are a lot of if’s that could change Cuccinelli’s fortune’s, including the recent visits by high-profile Democrats, President Obama and V.P. Biden who flocked to McAuliffe’s side the past two days - with no mention of Obama Care, the focus, most likely on Women’s rights – here we go again. One has to factor in the growing resentment towards Obama Care as a negative for McAuliffe, however, when it comes to women (and minorities) the Democrats count on the ridiculous mantra of either a GOP War on Women – which does not exists, or Reproductive Rights – (i.e. a combination of abortion on demand, birth control, and who knows what else) to frighten the little ladies into voting for the Democrat. – What’s embarrassing as a woman is they do – in droves.

(Just as aside, economic rights should be more important than any so-called threat to Reproductive rights, which, politically has never been at issue since Roe vs. Wade, regardless of whether or not the winning candidate was Democrat or Republican, and no matter the office won. – Therefore, it should economics – but for some reason in the past eight years, the vote has been for the candidate who promises that a women’s reproductive rights – the right to abortions on demand will be their priority – and those women wonder why they have no leg to stand on economically.)

The possible, yet not probable outcome if certain factors come into play in Virginia today.

Cuccinelli could win if – the turnout is lower in the higher population areas of Virginia closest to D.C – and there is a larger turnout in the rest of the state – which has remained Conservative. It will rely on whether or the Virginia voters have had enough of politics as usual and especially identity politics – should that occur, a 3 or 4 point deficit may be easily overcome.

The problem occurs when GOP Standard Bears, or the national GOP, decide they’d rather lose a governor’s race than help the individual Tea Party Candidate, which is occurring in Virginia, and one might suggest will occur nationally. That, and that alone, will win the race for Terry McAuliffe. Not the President, nor the Women, but the GOP members who align themselves with the Romney/McCain moderates. (NBC Politics).

Therefore, barring some miracle of a change in voter sentiment, with a lower than average turnout in the high population areas, with a higher turnout in rural and conservative Virginal, plus women caring more about their pocketbooks than the fairy tale of losing reproductive rights if a Republican is elected to the position of dogcatcher, then McAuliffe will be the next Govenor of Virginia.

In recalling the 5 point lead that Martha Coakley had over Scott Brown going into the Massachusetts 2009 special election, yes, polls can be wrong, larger blocks of Democrat voters can stay home, and a Republican can win as an underdog - even in Massachusetts, but not for long in Blue States. Virginia is not yet, a Blue State, that and that alone gives Cuccinelli a bump of sorts.

As to the national GOP sinking the Tea Party and foisting the likes of Chris Christie on the nation, they are setting themselves up for yet another loss. Those who might be more on the independent side, tend to vote based on an individual’s performance, if they cannot do the job, or react badly in a crisis, then the nod goes to the new candidate, regardless of party. If however, that individual has done a stellar job, regardless of party, they deserve the vote. Christie, under the pressures of Hurricane Sandy showed an amazing lack of leadership, rather appearing on national television as weak, and in need of help from the Federal Government and especially the President. That would be fine and dandy, if there was no other elected official to which to compare the New Jersey Governor, but in this case there are many.

One in particular comes to mind as Western Mass goes to the polls today to elect local and state leaders. There was a larger than average and extremely devastating snow storm three years ago, October. One which crippled the Western Mass and CT – In the City of Chicopee, the Mayor, a Democrat, did everything in his power to get the small city of 80,000 back on line. He did so communicating with the residents, and as he is also a fiscal conservative and the City has ample rainy day funds - He called for companies from other states not affected to plow, repair power lines, and get everyone in the City back up on line and fast. In less than 12 hours from the onset, the Electric (City Owned) had power restored to the main “drag” allowing gas stations, atms, grocery stores and other services to operate. The only City in both MA and CT to do so and quickly. It was leadership - which is why that mayor, who has an opponent, will receive a vote – based on performance. One should rather have a Democrat or Tea Party or whichever, as a President who might handle a crisis, rather than one, who apparently, cannot.

Yet because Christie is a moderate, and may win NJ in a landslide – (where he should stay), the National GOP considers him suitable as a Presidential candidate. – Go figure – it’s why they lose elections and why the Tea Party members should perhaps train their eyes on running as Independents, it might surprise them, even with all the “hate” from the media and the left, how many Democrats and former Republicans would come to their aid. The Standard GOP is no longer Reagan’s Party, no more than the Democrats Today resembles my father’s party. Time for a shakeup.

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