Monday, June 17, 2013

The Massachusetts Special Senate Election will take place on June 25, 2013 – Gomez (R) vs. Markey (D) – where to volunteer – The Polls and the Probability.

The Massachusetts Special Election will take place on Tuesday, June 25th, 2013. To find your polling station visit :the Massachusetts Secretary of State – Elections Division – where do I vote. To volunteer for Gabriel Gomez, visit: call 617-249-4113, or visit Gabriel GomezforMA. If one is inclined to volunteer for Ed Markey visit - there is no telephone number available, and neither candidate offers addresses for campaign offices on their websites – the Gomez Campaign does have a telephone number.

The interest in this campaign is extremely low, with Gomez having ground troops and holding town halls, and Ed Markey relying on Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Al Gore and even Barney Frank came out of retirement. Not even the big names in the Democratic Party appear to be moving the bar much. The Boston Globe came out with its latest poll, similar to the Brown Coakley polling done prior to the race in 2009 - being slightly less generous to Markey, thank Coakley, giving him only 13 points rather than the 15 points they gave to Coakley. In that race Coakley lost to Scott Brown by 5 points. (WBUR with analysis.) The majority of the polls indicate, however, that the lack of interest in this race is tied, with candidates holding margin of error. Take the Globe poll with a grain of sand for now – it could be that large a margin, however, history of Globe polling alone, makes it suspect. That said every local nightly newscaster is appearing quite jubilant with the Globe news breaking this weekend. Real Clear Politics poll averages, including the Globe Poll have Markey up by 9 points. Caution, the only national polling firm in this average is Public Policy Polling, with Markey up by 4 points, the balance are the Massachusetts and New England College Polls, along with Boston Globe’s poll. This suggests that the actual race will be decided by 4 to 6 points - as enthusiasm is absent in general - one might, if one is concerned one way or the other, to be sure to vote on Tuesday. The last day to register has long since past.

In the case of this election, if one wants to vote to the least boring – that would be Gomez, if one wants to vote for someone who has made a living out of politics, then vote for Markey – Gomez, for his part is not one’s typical Republican – and Markey, is a typical “Progressive Democrat”. The race, in essence, is too close to call, thus the frantic Elizabeth Warren’s call to get out the vote! (WGGB) (Again, which leads on to believe that the gap between the two candidates is not the large.)

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