Tuesday, June 18, 2013

How the President’s Falling Poll Numbers, especially among Those Under 25 - will impact the Democrat Party in the Long Run.



CNN International discusses a poll taken on the President’s approval rating, and its decline since several “scandals” have struck the Administration. The poll has dropped 8 percent in 18 months, but most sharply among those in the “under 30 crowd”. The article finishes with a suggestion by Vanderbilt University’s political science departments, John Greer who suggests that with immigration passing, the youth will come flocking back to the Democrat Party and the President – given the inclusive nature of the bill.

Bunk.

It is not so much that the youth are against inclusion, it is not so much that the youth is fairly non-judgmental when it comes to race or gender and gender identity (on the face of it) – however, they are extremely frustrated with the lack of sustainable wage jobs available once they graduate from college, many are now living in their parents’ homes, or with multiple roommates as they simply cannot afford the high costs of the loans and the high cost of living on one’s own. Couple that with the fact that most of the jobs available are in the service industry, where traditionally, those who are not citizens work, and a perfect storm is brewing. One poll one does not find is a poll on how the youth view the immigration bill – it is not necessarily about providing citizenship status to those who are already in the country – it is the implication that there may be millions more now coming into the country who will be embraced and seeking the jobs they now see as their only options. When one looks at the graduation rates from high schools in a variety of larger urban cities, one finds that the rates, in certain cases, are in the 50 to 60 percentile. Those who do not hold a high school degree are looking at the service industry as their only hope. Therefore, before assuming that all will be well with the passage of this one bill, they might want to do some actual polling.

Although the good news for those on the side of the aisle now being put under a great deal of pressure is twofold, the youth also are not enamored of the Republican Party, and they aren’t registering to vote – yet. (That’s another poll worth taking.) They are disparaged, disgruntled and disappointed in general, given the fact that the man who promised everything has apparently been a huge disappointment – and this does not refer to those who are the campus cheerleaders – this refers to those who are not seeing a way clear to the campus, or avoiding the campus, or dropping out once there, either for economic or other reasons. Should they decide to register and to vote, one might find that they are more inclined to be pro-liberty, anti-war, a different kind of “hippy” philosophy. The problem for those who are now pushed through an immigration bill that may be seen by those under 30 as an encroachment on their personal financial stability, may also have to worry about their parents – those parents who would have seen a different lifestyle for their children, one that put them in a better position financially, than their generation – that’s a group that votes.

Of course, if one takes the Massachusetts Special election, where the entire cast of notables of the Democrat Party came and supported one of the most boring candidates for Senate in history, other than the Republican whom he is running against – and should that election go to the Democrat, one might make the mistake of believing that all is well. One should not consider Massachustts as a model, either way that contest falls out. (Most suspect is the poll conducted by the Boston Globe, one that puts Ed Markey, the Democrat in double digits a week before the election – only due to the fact that the same source polled for the 2009 election which saw a 15 point lead turn into a 5 point deficit – it may be correct, but – it may be dead wrong), it will not be indicative of a national trend, and it matters little in the Senate as to the workings of Washington – if it were Harry Reid’s seat, then that would make the difference, as he holds the reigns regardless of the added seat.

The premise is that the youth will continue to consider the President as human, and approval will be subject to their personal losses or gains. As the President represents the party, so goes the youth vote.

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