Santorum and Romney - Santorum the Man Romney does not want to Face without a Buffer - Image Salon.com
An article from the New York Times entitled ” Romney Team Sees a Plus in Gingrich’s Persistence” is the understatement of this campaign season. The man that Romney and his Super PAC went to great lengths and expense to politically destroy, (as they do with anyone who so much as flirts with passing Mitt Romney is the polls (see Rick Santorum), now is thrilled that the former Speaker of the House has been persistent – it is paying off – for Team Romney. The facts are such that it is apparent, without Gingrich in the race; the process may not have turned out to favor Mitt Romney at the moment, especially in the South. Some quick stats:
As of March 11, there have been 22 GOP Primary or Caucuses, out of which, Santorum has places 1st or 2nd in 14. In those same 22 races, the Speaker finished last or second to last 18 times, losing to Ron Paul 12 times. According to the New York Times: Romney’s Team:
New York Times
“If Mr. Romney has a chance of winning the Alabama primary on Tuesday — his advisers believed the odds were strong enough to arrange a last-minute campaign visit on the eve of the election — it is largely because Mr. Gingrich’s candidacy remains alive.”
“Mr. Gingrich’s resilience has so far allowed Mr. Romney to dodge the head-to-head competition that Rick Santorum has been craving.”
(And the kicker – for those familiar with Texas Hold-em)
“The Alabama and Mississippi primaries will not settle the Republican nominating contest, but the results could help determine whether Mr. Romney is able to sidestep what he has feared most: a dominant, singular rival with the ability to unify the ranks of conservatives who have been slow in warming to the notion of Mr. Romney becoming the party’s presidential nominee.
What one can take away from this piece in the Times is a) Gingrich is helping Romney, by buffering Romney from having to compete against Santorum (who clocked him in Missouri’s early contest – when it was just a two-way competition - the Romney Team issued the most bizarre statement at the time (paraphrasing) “He does not do well one on one in primary contests” (referring to Romney).
Apparently this is a prevailing theme. Therefore, b) what the GOP now has is a Candidate that cannot win the nation (and this includes the important swing states in the middle country) unless there is a buffer (in this case Gingrich) between Romney and a main opponent.
Gingrich is the key to a Romney nomination – either knowingly or unknowingly – most are touting Gingrich’s arrogance, some are suggesting that, as a GOP stalwart, he is running the race to protect Romney – one must keep in mind, regardless of who the candidate is, they all know one another in some way or form from past competitions, visits to Washington or from their time in the House or the Senate. They are all, to a man (sadly no woman) Republican, even Ron Paul, otherwise he’d run as a Libertarian, similar to Bernie Sanders in Vermont who runs as a Socialist.
Following this argument that Romney cannot win if Santorum is the only one in the race, how on earth does the man expect to win as a “moderate” against Obama? It is not without a bit of history apparently left aside, that moderates do not fare well in general elections (Dole, McCain, the most recent), while Conservatives, those that scare the pants out of the media because they are too far right – win in generals.
Case in point: Ronald Reagan
Who was deemed by the media to be a clown and dangerous far right zealot, and then the GOP picked up the momentum by screaming for a brokered convention as Reagan was dangerous – his last opponent, one George H.W. Bush left the race in late May of 1980 – and the rest as they say – is history. The long gas lines, and or lack of gas at the pumps, unemployment and lack of a reasonable foreign policy under Carter did not hurt Reagan in the last. What one can bring away from this history lesson is the following: A strong Conservative, such a Santorum stands a better chance, despite the GOP, in besting the President, the similarities between President’s Carter and Obama are so eerily similar, it is as if it happened ten years ago, not thirty. To those of us who remember the infighting of the Republican’s, the lengthily process of the primary and caucuses (all deemed too long, with calls for Reagent o get out of the race and let George H Bush take his rightful place), did not hurt the “Gipper” one bit. It is not the popular rhetoric that is important in this case, it is the look back, to see what the future holds that is of import. Santorum, is obviously not Ronald Reagan, he is Rick Santorum, someone new, but with a brand of Conservatism that is similar in scope, and the reaction from both the GOP and the press gives credence to the fact that he is one that is feared most in this election – feared to upset the applecart that is Washington. Not Romney and certainly not Gingrich. If and only if, the anti-Romney electorate that exits in the remaining races, wakes up and understands that Gingrich, most likely though no fault of his own, is helping Romney, and they are voters that would have Santorum as a second choice, they should vote their second choice. Otherwise, they are, in essence, helping the man they want least, to the nomination.
As to the numbers:
There are sufficient states left to weigh in, to see Santorum gain the necessary votes by the June primary (the same time frame in 2008 between Clinton and Obama)to clinch the nomination – Gingrich could, like Romney in 2008, release his delegates to Santorum, (Romney released them to McCain), (”Romney Endorses McCain, Releases Delegates urge they support McCain”) – This pushed Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee out of the fight, and gave McCain the necessary momentum to win the nomination – by end of May.
Lastly, the balance of the states to weigh in are not exactly Romney States, at least not if Gingrich continues to hold steadfast and remains in the race. Understanding that Speaker Gingrich is a man of great intelligence, who is known as a Conservative, he surely understands that there is no way he can, even if he wins, Alabama and Mississippi, win the nomination – he would have to take the majority of the states left, and then run it to the Convention. If this were the scenario, a room full of pro-Romney “super-delegates” most of whom never forgave Gingrich for kicking George H Bush to the curb (on numerous occasions), would nominate Mitt Romney in a heart-beat. It is a lose-lose situation at best, one that the Obama administration and the media are counting on.
As Speaker Gingrich is a renowned Historian, and astute politician, surely he must be keenly aware of these facts. Therefore, it is up to the voters of Alabama and Mississippi, Louisiana and Hawaii, to place their vote for a candidate who best matches their beliefs, and one they believe can win the general. Polling shows that both Santorum and Romney, as of this past week (these are rolling polls, canning daily), can best the President, and more importantly that Romney cannot win without Gingrich – therefore if they are anti-Romney (based on his flip-flops, his inability to attract the necessary voters to win a general, and his record as Governor (fees are taxes), to cast their vote for Santorum. If this occurs, it would be the beginning of the end of the Romney campaign, and the GOP would have another 30 year candidate whom they do not believe can win, simply because he stands for everything that the GOP is supposed to stand for.
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