Romney Santorum and Gingrich - headed for AL/MS - image griperblade.blogspot.com
The last poll out of Public Policy Polling, shows a virtual statistical tie between Gingrich, Romney and Santorum in both Mississippi and Alabama ahead of the Tuesday Primary. The fact that Gingrich in the race is splitting the Conservative Vote, would allow Mitt Romney a win in two states where it was never considered a possibility – the deep south. Polls for the Alabama contest have varied, from a Gingrich win, to a Santorum win, depending upon the pollster –however, with PPP weighing in – it appears that it will be another nail biter, all three candidates fall within the margin of error. Santorum has the highest favorability ratings at 60% with both men and women polled, while Romney has an average of a 53% favorability rating, losing women, by 2 points, with more men finding him favorable at 54%. Gingrich has a 58% favorability rating, again pulling higher numbers with male voters than female (56 to 61%) – Logic follows if the women get out to vote, Santorum will have the edge – 26% of the 95% who have not voted, are not entirely committed to their initial candidate, they may change their mind between now and tomorrow.
In Mississippi it is approximately the same statistics, with Gingrich holding a slightly better Favorability rating, than Santorum by 1 point. Again, 25% are likely to change their minds between now and tomorrow. Understanding this poll was taken prior to Santorum’s Kansas win, and Romney’s win in WY and the Islands.
Although Gingrich stands no chance of picking up any additional states, outside of these two, he insists he will stay in the race, now to defeat Rick Santorum, not Mitt Romney(Boston.com). This constitutes a real change of strategy from the former Speaker of the House, who initially said he was in the race to stop Moderate GOP Establishment Candidate, Mitt Romney. From this perspective,it is understood that the former Speaker of the House is one of the brightest in the business - therefore, he understands he is splitting the conservative vote, has no chance to win, but is blocking Santorum knowing he is handing Mitt Romney the nomination. Otherwise, one must be tempted to put Gingrich in the Ron Paul column, which, is at best difficult to do, considering Paul actually has a dedicated following.
Final note, Moderate Lyndsay Graham (see Olympia Snow, Sue Collins and of course, John McCain) has decided that the race is over: Give Mitt Romney the win already - the math does not add up! just crown Mitt and get it over with. However, he may want to hold onto that thought, as Illinois is on deck, and Romney is now locked in a battle for first with Santorum (in Lincoln land. Gingrich is a distant third with Ron Paul picking up the rear
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