Thursday, March 15, 2012

Illinois & Puerto Rico GOP Primaries – Romney VS. Santorum – Polling and GOP Distribution Indicate Race Too Close to Call in IL, is PR Competitive?

It's down to two: Santorum and Romney - image

One of the latest articles on the likely outcome of the Illinois GOP primary comes from the Des Moines Iowa Register. The title” Illinois next big GOP presidential battleground”, suggests that the most recent polling data available, a Chicago Tribune Poll, which shows Romney leading Santorum outside the margin of error by one point, with Gingrich and Ron Paul barely registering, is at this point anyone’s game. The fact that the state is divided by GOP population and candidate preference is what makes this race difficult to call with 50% of the more moderate GOP voters in the Chicago area and suburbs, and 50% of the more conservatives holding the rest of the state. In addition, as in other recent polls such as Mississippi and Alabama which suggested Rick Santorum would finish 3rd, 46% of the voters, as of March 11th, were likely to change their minds before the primary: with the current polls showing:

“And the poll showed Romney is doing well in the suburbs. In Cook County, he leads Santorum 39 percent to 30 percent. In the more heavily Republican collar counties, Romney held a 39 percent to 27 percent edge.
But Santorum holds a 35 percent to 29 percent advantage in the 96 counties outside the Chicago area, where Republican voters tend to be more conservative.

The article goes on to note that the findings mirror the polling in Ohio, where Romney eked out a lead, however, in Ohio Polling, Gingrich had a slightly larger share of support at 15% (PPP) with actual results Romney, 37.9, Santorum, 37.1 and Gingrich 3rd at 14.6 (Google News). In the days leading up to the Ohio primary, Romney had split the momentum by squeaking out a lead in Michigan over Santorum, a state Romney was expected to win handily.

After the two poll-stunning victories in Mississippi and Alabama, Santorum now has an opportunity to upend Romney in Illinois – In the Tribune Poll Gingrich is at 12%, 2 points below his Ohio average. In addition, this poll was taken prior to the Santorum wins in Mississippi and Alabama, with 46% of those respondents able to have a change of heart, so to speak – this could turn into yet another surprise for Santorum going into Tuesday Race.
Romney’s PAC, is throwing its heavy handed advertising at Santorum in the Chicago Market, spending millions on negative advertising, once again, in a pattern that has become synonymous with Romney’s style. That style apparently did not pan out well for Romney in the South last weekend, so it may come as no surprise, that they are spending in a market they are sure they have votes, rather than 96% of the state where they are pretty certain they don’t. Los Angels Times

Should one candidate win 50% of the State’s voters that candidate will take all delegates, otherwise the delegates are proportioned by wins, one must have 15% of the vote in order to qualify for any delegates. What appears to have happened here is that Gingrich and Paul will have no share of delegates if they place near or below the poll latest poll numbers.

Missouri goes to the polls this weekend, where Rick Santorum is heading for a repeat win in the Show Me State, Puerto Rico is also in play, as Santorum is leaving no stone unturned – although no hard polling data is available, Puerto Rico Media suggests that Romney will have a battle on his hands with Santorum. Santorum is appealing to the conservative base, and with his recent meeting with the Governor, who endorsed Romney, he may give Romney a run for his money (or his PAC’s money). That said, according to WAPA.TV Puerto Rico a new alliance formed in Chicago last week, made up of Puerto Rican Youth for Obama, is pushing against Rick Santorum, not Romney – the newscast shown, suggests that Romney will do well with the establishment GOP, however, Santorum will do better with the broader base of Conservatives on the Island. Santorum has had previous ties to the Island, when in the Senate, and worked closely with the Governor of Puerto Rico shoring up the base.

Therefore, what we are looking at is a not so remote possibility that Santorum may, once again, deny the polls and win the state of Illinois Outright, (with 46% of the voters likely to change their minds, and Romney’s eventual nomination now in question, as well as his ability to win in the south, which is critical to a general election. Those voters in Illinois, and one suspects elsewhere, are, according to polling done in the Register, gravitating towards Santorum. He may also end up taking delegates from Romney in Puerto Rico – and the road to the nomination is looking more competitive for Santorum as times goes by. It is not improbable and growing increasingly conceivable, that between now and June, Santorum, who’s ground came is the rival of all campaigns, and is the candidate with momentum on his side, can reach the 1144 delegates necessary to win the nomination. Of note, Romney’s strategy now appears to be winning delegates, that strategy is similar in scope to the man in the 4th position, Ron Paul.


Anonymous said...

why don't you just name the title of this article " I love Rick Santorum".

Anonymous said...

I'm so tired of media stating that Romney can't connect with the "very conservative/evangilicals". That is the biggest BS.They only way they would support Romney is if he changed his relegion. Its all about relegion.

Tina Hemond said...

Dear Anonymous & Anonymous - a bit testy aren't we - if you actually read the blog, you would find that it is a) my opinion and b) that my opinion is that the former Governor of the Commonwealth in which I reside has never been one of my favorite politicians. I have stood up for him, when he deserved it however, and I have given him debate wins when he deserved it, even if I personally liked another candidate. If you weren’t just trolling for negative articles on blogs and new sites – then you’d know that – this tells me the campaign is desperate – paid staffers or volunteers routinely use this tactic.
However, in case you are simply misguided - I have looked at each one of these candidates, regardless of race or religion, my opinion and my personal choices (which, again - shock and awe, are not reflected in the blog unless so noted.) are based on competence, nothing more, nothing less. In fact, supporting Santorum was not an instant process; rather it was a long vetting process. He’s got a solid record in the Senate, he has a solid record outside of the Senate – he appeals across the board to Conservatives, Independents and yes, Democrats! – The key to winning. He has taken the states that are critical to a general election – One cannot win a general without the south and the Midwest – which – when Romney runs alone against Santorum – it is a shutout – this has to be sinking in.
Not yet? If not – one must look at the historical point of view, the moderate Republican as something of an albatross when it comes to a general election - Name one moderate nominee that actually won the White House.
You cannot seriously believe that Romney connects to the average voter? The average voter is the majority – Therefore - Romney cannot connect to the majority of voters. This is not an opinion based on one general GOP 2012 primary election - this is based on his run for Governor (which he won by a squeaker - simply because the "blue-dog" democrat out-pro-lifed him - and in Massachusetts, that's going the extra mile - his 15 point deficit in the polls, 3 weeks before the election got him a plus 4 - not a mandate by any means.
In February of 2008 he was out of that general election race, and conceded to John McCain (moderate).
Since he has been pre-ordained and so touted by the MSM as the anointed one -it’s amazing he’s gotten as far as he has – however, the end of the road is appearing. Do you not wonder why a media that is so fond of the President is also so fond of Mitt Romney? – Democrat operatives were in a panic when Gingrich rose in the polls before Iowa, only because they were counting on Mitt Romney as the nominee - they had done the opposition research – it would be McCain II. (Or McCain light – take your pick).

Tina Hemond said...

Part II
There’s more:
He needed a debate coach, he uses a teleprompter

Speaking of Massachusetts - he "fee-ed" (i.e. taxed) us until he could finagle a surplus - regular people cannot afford a hike in fishing license fees of $50 bucks - just saying, we lost jobs, we lost factories, we ended up with Romney Care, and he left us to the Democrats to go campaign for President - they mandated the living daylights out of it, and with three carriers in the Commonwealth - personal premiums went up 20% the first year, 11% each year thereafter - except in 2010 when we saw a 24% increase - cost of doing business? - The administration of the health care plan in MA is astronomical (check the budget) and yet "it's not government insurance” - Need more?
He also made some hard choices in cutting the budget – when it came to the elderly – they despise him – (that’s in the research that David Axelrod has tucked away)
Frankly, if you read this blog, you’d find me to be an independent – sometimes even moderate – but I am concerned for this nation, not the party – the people, that includes those people that work for a living and those that do not - I want a candidate to have the wits and wherewithal to understand that when there’s higher gas prices and taxes (fees), everything goes up and the people that suffer the most are those on a fixed income, the elderly and yes, those that are swiping an EBT card.
I want someone who doesn’t change his mind (I’d prefer a her mind, but that ship has sailed), every time it’s politically advantageous.
I don’t’ care if someone is a Mormon, a Catholic, an Evangelical, a Jew, a Muslim, a Hindu, a Buddhist, or pick a flavor, I don’t care if they are Spanish, Armenian or from Mars – I want competence, and I want someone who can hold their convictions but also knows how to pursued the other side – not join them completely in issues that are important to the nation (not the politician).
If you’re not from Massachusetts, or even if you are, and you want a clear perspective – read “The Bluest State” – J. Keller, on Amazon, not pricey. Personal attacks are from the left – reasoned arguments are from those of us who might be right. Feel free to debate, but bring clear examples of what you may disagree with regarding my opinion (and basic facts), and back it up with logic, and links.

Dylan said...

Where the fuck is Ron Paul?

Anonymous said...

With Ron Paul's low delegate count and not winning one single state - is he really worth mentioning?

Matt White said...

I'm with the anonymouses. Your arguments are silly and misguided, just like most people who are anti-Romney. But I guess the fact that you are a conservative feminist tells me all I need to know. Sanatorium does not attract Democrats AT ALL. Remember how he lost the PA senate race so hard? And have you noticed how Democrats aren't attacking him? It's because they are so excited to have him nominated that they're holding back until he's nominated to destroy him. Tell me, as a feminist, how do you feel about rape victims being denied abortion under Santorum? Or his denial of climate change despite 90% of climate research confirming it? He's an insane extremist and will never win a general election vs Obama.

Anonymous said...

I'm with anonymouses, too. How come the two rebuttals are longer than the actual article, and make even less sense?

Romney's action are very selfless. Can't say the same for greedy Santorum. Romney's in it to help others. Santorum--to help himself.

(Case in point: How much 'salary' did Romney make as governor of Massachusetts? What's that? Zero? He donated it all to charity?! Oh. I rest my case.)

Tina Hemond said...

Good Grief, Do any of these anonymous posters, point to anything other than rhetoric? - no Links to firm up a rebuttal, only more of the same - As a feminist - are you kidding me? - As a Feminist, Santorum never said he would deny rape victims anything - link please - As a Catholic, his choice is pro-life (by the way, so is mine - I prefer no abortion and no death penalty - and as a woman, I can actually talk about abortion with authority) - I'm all about the pocketbook - and if one of you is from Massachusetts, you should know better - Romney hurt the MA economy -

Romney not taking a state salary commendable (the $140,000 annual salary) - no argument there - it was the way he ran the state! Unless of course you were all earning over 100K a year in 2006 - then you probably didn't mind the hefty increases.

Again, I'm talking about competence, and I support Santorum based on competence, not religion, not media or Romney or Paul campaign hysteria, so, I humbly suggest you back everything you feel is out of line (fact checked by the way), and present you're own facts - that's what makes a debate healthy - and allows readers to see past those who are afraid to publish their profiles, as actual Romney supporters who are so passionate about their candidate that they are able to argue in a comprehensible manner. Also if you read through the other articles in this blog - one would find again, a long process of elimination, with actual statistics and articles including polls to back up my opinion.

Santorum greedy - you're either a Pual or Romney or both supporter - that's a hoot.

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